1138 Hogback Rd · Erin, NY 14825

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured · 3 Days on market

Built 1988 Fair condition 0.72 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 1988 doublewide situated on 0.72 acres, excellent opportunity for sweat-equity buyers and investors. Situated in a peaceful country setting, this house offers 1680 sq ft of living space. The front living room offers a coal fireplace that heats the whole house in the winter, the large kitchen has plenty of cabinets and counterspace and an attached dining area. You will find three bedrooms and two full baths and a separate laundry area and walk in pantry. Some recent updates include a new front porch, new well pump and hot water heater and a new metal roof.

Key facts

• New well pump
• Attached dining area
• New front porch

Tags

• COAL FIREPLACE
• LARGE KITCHEN
• ATTACHED DINING AREA
• WALK IN PANTRY
• NEW FRONT PORCH
• NEW WELL PUMP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential manufactured home; Lot about 0.72 acres
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Metal roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating using oil
• Interior features: Electric water heater; 9 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $356 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,126 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Waverly Central School District (town): math 41% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #480 of 590 in NY (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.07%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.80×
• Total profit: $74,444
• Equity at exit: $85,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.57×
• Total profit: $201,425
• Equity at exit: $184,564

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14825

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,282 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 570-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   listed $95,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,231
• − Management: −$1,231
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $2,937
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$705
• After-tax cash flow: $3,569/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 1988 doublewide mobile home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen, bathrooms, and flooring. The home is situated in a peaceful country setting and offers 1680 sq ft of living space.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen countertops — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen flooring — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bath fixtures — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bath tile — dated and in need of replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Resale new kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizes the kitchen and adds value
• Resale new flooring throughout — updates the flooring and adds value
• Resale new paint throughout — updates the interior and adds value
• Resale new bathroom fixtures and tile — modernizes the bathrooms and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen countertops · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen flooring · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bath fixtures · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bath tile · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$15,000–75,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale new kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑
• Resale new flooring throughout — updates the flooring and adds value ↑
• Resale new paint throughout — updates the interior and adds value ↑
• Resale new bathroom fixtures and tile — modernizes the bathrooms and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waverly Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630270
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $44,935
• Composite: 36.9/100
• National rank: #4544
• State rank: #480 of 590 in NY

Livability — Erin

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1126
• US rank: #23198

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,150
• Population (ZIP): 746

Population outlook (Chemung County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,931 people
• By 2030: 80,356 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 74,745 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 69,012 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 55,689 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 41,428 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 14% Romanian 3% Italian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chemung

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.2pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.65%
• Current HPI: 481.8402
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $95,000 NMPA