512 W Pinto St · Miami, AZ 85539

$58,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1950 1,999 sqft lot $56/sqft · 46% below area Est $108k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cash offer or Seller Carry Financing only.

Key facts

• 1,999 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 34 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Other financing
• HOA & community: No association fees; Located in a historic district

Exterior

• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Other construction materials; Other roof
• Exterior features: Natural desert front and back; Dirt front and back; No fencing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window/wall air conditioning; No central heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry (other configuration)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $58k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $671 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $58k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#289 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Miami Unified District (4211) (rural): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #221 of 249 in AZ (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $401 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $56,260 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.57%
• DSCR: 3.21
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $108,187
• List price: $58,000
• Delta: -46.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
512 W Pinto St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,040 (0%)	1mo	$50,000	$48	100
512 W Pinto St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,040 (0%)	2mo	$65,000	$63	98
1157 W Frederick St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,004 (-4%)	6mo	$149,000	$148	62
164 E Vandyke Blvd	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,128 (+8%)	11mo	$70,000	$62	49
159 S Reppy Ave	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,171 (+13%)	20mo	$72,500	$62	34
181 S Highland Ave	0.64mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,113 (+7%)	24mo	$220,000	$198	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $33,503
• Equity at exit: $8,844

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $84,315
• Equity at exit: $5,352

Cash invested: $16,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85539

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $334/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $671

Break-even live

Break-even rent $451

Max offer price $58,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $704	-5% $687	+0% $671	+5% $654	+10% $638
Rent	-10% $568	-5% $619	+0% $671	+5% $722	+10% $774
Rate	-1.0pp $700	-0.5pp $686	base $671	+0.5pp $656	+1.0pp $641

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,500
• Closing costs: $1,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1122 Bird St Unit A Miami, AZ	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	45d	1	0.53mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $58,000 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $58,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $58,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $58,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 32 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $58,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 31 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $58,000 Under Contract Accepting Backups 30 DOM
7. 2026-05-19
   price $60,000 16-char remark
8. 2026-04-30
   listed $65,000 Active 16-char remark
9. 2026-04-17
   soldstatus $65,000 Closed 42-char remark

   Show marketing remark (42 chars)

   Cash offer or Seller Carry Financing only.

10. 2026-04-06
    status Pending 42-char remark

    Show marketing remark (42 chars)

    Cash offer or Seller Carry Financing only.

11. 2026-03-21
    listed $65,000 Active 42-char remark

    Show marketing remark (42 chars)

    Cash offer or Seller Carry Financing only.

12. 2025-11-01
    historical
13. 2025-09-09
    price $67,800
14. 2025-08-06
    price $67,900
15. 2025-07-11
    price $68,000
16. 2025-05-01
    price $70,000
17. 2025-04-18
    price $90,000
18. 2025-04-04
    listed $95,000 Active
19. 2016-09-19
    soldstatus $5,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $334 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $383 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: +$49/yr (+$4/mo · 14.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,249
• − Property taxes: −$334
• − Insurance: −$290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$1,687
• Taxable income: $7,544
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,810
• After-tax cash flow: $6,239/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami Unified District (4211)
• NCES district ID: 0405030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,063
• Composite: 10.86/100
• National rank: #9760
• State rank: #221 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Miami

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #24461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Miami, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 3,066

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 39% Two or more races 33% Native American 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.92%
• Current HPI: 207.4672
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1060.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-06-10 Listed $58,000 ARMLS
• 2026-06-10 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-06-07 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $58,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $60,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $65,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2026-04-17 Sold (MLS) $65,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Listed $65,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $67,800 ARMLS
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $67,900 ARMLS
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $68,000 ARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $70,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-18 Price Changed $90,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-04 Listed $95,000 ARMLS
• 2016-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $334 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.