1449 Menomenee Ln #252 · Redding, CA 96003

$45,900

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1968 Est $70k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

1 bedroom 2 bath with potential for a second bedroom. Skylights bring lots of natural light inside. Master bedroom includes a big walk-in closet and double sink in the bathroom. A large dining and living room are ready for family gatherings. Move in ready for a new owner!

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Double sink
• Move in ready

Tags

• SKYLIGHTS
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DOUBLE SINK
• DINING AND LIVING ROOM
• MOVE IN READY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport with 1 carport space
• Utilities: Public water; 220 volt electric
• Home design: Manufactured in-park mobile home
• Construction: Lap siding exterior; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Flat/other roof; Level topography; Asphalt road access; Aluminum skirting; Located in Mountain Shadows park

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range / Oven; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $46k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $766 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $46k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.3% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 391 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $317 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,211 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.48%
• DSCR: 4.18
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $70,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4518 Big Eagle Ln	0.11mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-2%)	14mo	$85,000	$80	75
888 Shawnee Trl	0.30mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (0%)	11mo	$95,000	$88	72
472 Red Cedar Dr #86	0.37mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (0%)	8mo	$40,000	$37	71
1187 Mountain Shadows Blvd #162	0.13mi	2/1.0 (+1)	980 (-9%)	4mo	$64,000	$65	67
432 Red Cedar DR Sp#91 Dr	0.37mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (-4%)	9mo	$80,500	$77	64
1120 Shawnee Trl	0.23mi	2/2.0 (+1)	976 (-10%)	5mo	$109,500	$112	64
4824 Pecan Dr #51	0.36mi	2/— (+1)	1,120 (+4%)	11mo	$66,530	$59	63
4880 Hardwood Blvd #71	0.42mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (0%)	16mo	$63,500	$59	62
493 Bitterroot Dr. Dr #46	0.42mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (-4%)	10mo	$60,000	$58	61
4717 Hardwood Blvd #242	0.31mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (+9%)	9mo	$75,000	$64	58
821 Saint Marks St Spc 29	0.36mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (+10%)	8mo	$122,000	$103	55
481 Twin View Blvd Spc 67	0.70mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+11%)	8mo	$67,000	$56	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 74.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.55×
• Total profit: $45,574
• Equity at exit: $6,844

10-year hold

• IRR: 79.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.42×
• Total profit: $121,016
• Equity at exit: $3,969

Cash invested: $12,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 391
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,371 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$241
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$57 /mo · $688/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $766

Break-even live

Break-even rent $402

Max offer price $45,900

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,475
• Closing costs: $1,377
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4433 White River Dr Redding, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	0.21mi
4296 Clay St Unit 17 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,395	$1.55	20d	1	0.32mi
4490 Alder St Unit C Redding, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	20d	1	0.33mi
701 Redwood Blvd Redding, CA	2.0	1.5–2.5	1163	$1,820	$1.56	13d	1	0.44mi
400 Lake Blvd Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,310	$1.46	13d	1	0.45mi
636 Lake Blvd Redding, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$1,295	$1.31	13d	8	0.49mi
335 Buckeye Ter Unit 2 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	800	$1,399	$1.75	20d	1	0.54mi
130 Masonic Ave Apt 9 Redding, CA	2.0	1.0	780	$1,200	$1.54	43d	1	0.71mi
150 Masonic Ave Unit 1 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	924	$1,400	$1.52	13d	1	0.73mi
170 Masonic Ave #4 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	924	$1,400	$1.52	13d	1	0.74mi
333 Boulder Creek Dr Redding, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	780	$1,000	$1.28	13d	1	1.01mi
5576 Mountain View Dr Redding, CA	2.0	1.0	776	$1,200	$1.55	13d	1	1.01mi
251 Hilltop Dr Redding, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$1,175	$1.55	13d	1	1.11mi
1477 Mishka Ct Apt 3 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	800	$1,225	$1.53	20d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $45,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $45,900 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,900 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $45,900 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,900 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $45,900 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $45,900 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,447
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,571
• − Property taxes: −$688
• − Insurance: −$230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,316
• − Management: −$1,316
• − Depreciation: −$1,335
• Taxable income: $8,991
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,158
• After-tax cash flow: $7,029/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Redding, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $49,900 SAOR