3821 Club Cir · Indian Lake Estates, FL 33898

$93,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 648 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1965 1,446 sqft lot $350/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This one-bedroom Villa is ready for you to call Home! Clean, well maintained and furnished! Parking at your front door. Lakeshore Club offers Resort Style living with nice pool, tennis courts, shuffleboard and more. Close to many renowned fishing lakes and golf. The City Center hosts a Post Office, Gym, Chaple, Community Center, Gift Shop, and more! Located near shopping, medical needs, restaurants and only an hour from Vero Beach! Call today to schedule a viewing of this exceptional Villa!

Key facts

• 1,446 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 1965

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); Community features: Clubhouse, Community mailbox, Fitness center, Golf carts OK, Reclaimed water irrigation, Pool, Sidewalks, Tennis courts
• Financial info: Total annual fees approximately $4,200; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $350; HOA required; association approval required; Association name: Jessica/ Vladimir; Association amenities: Clubhouse, Fitness Center, Laundry, Pool, Tennis Courts; Association fee includes: Common area taxes, Pool, Insurance, Internet, Grounds maintenance, Management, Sewer, Trash, Water

Exterior

• Parking: Guest parking
• Utilities: Private water; Public sewer; Cable available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential villa; One story; South-facing; Entry on main level
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 696 square feet
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Unpaved yard area

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Thermostat; Vaulted ceilings; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet (inside)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-343/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $89k (5.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spook Hill Elementary School (math 28% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 584 students, 67% FRL); Frostproof Middle/Senior High (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #394 of 667 statewide, top 60%, 1,150 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 500 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $649 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,266 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.30%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-16,813
• Equity at exit: $14,001

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-16,075
• Equity at exit: $8,119

Cash invested: $26,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33898

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 500
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,209 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$492
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,228/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$350
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,245

Max offer price $88,849

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $25	-5% $-2	+0% $-29	+5% $-55	+10% $-82
Rent	-10% $-124	-5% $-76	+0% $-29	+5% $19	+10% $67
Rate	-1.0pp $19	-0.5pp $-5	base $-29	+0.5pp $-53	+1.0pp $-78

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,475
• Closing costs: $2,817
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2709 Club Cir Lake Wales, FL	1.0	1.0	648	$950	$1.47	24d	1	0.31mi
1707 Club Cir Unit 1707 Lakeshore, FL	1.0	1.0	648	$1,075	$1.66	24d	1	0.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $350 · $4,200/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $93,900 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $93,900 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $93,900 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $93,900 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $93,900 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $93,900 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $93,900 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $93,900 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $93,900 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $93,900 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $93,900 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $93,900 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $93,900 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $93,900 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    price $93,900
16. 2026-05-07
    price $98,000
17. 2026-04-02
    listed $100,000 Active
18. 2025-10-10
    historical $1,250
19. 2025-09-15
    listed $1,250
20. 2025-06-11
    soldstatus $75,000
21. 2025-05-30
    soldstatus $75,000 Closed 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    This one-bedroom Villa is ready for you to call Home! Clean, well maintained and furnished! Parking at your front door. Lakeshore Club offers Resort Style living with nice pool, tennis courts, shuffleboard and more. Close to many renowned fishing lakes and golf. The City Center hosts a Post Office, Gym, Chaple, Community Center, Gift Shop, and more! Located near shopping, medical needs, restaurants and only an hour from Vero Beach! Call today to schedule a viewing of this exceptional Villa!

22. 2025-05-01
    status Pending 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    This one-bedroom Villa is ready for you to call Home! Clean, well maintained and furnished! Parking at your front door. Lakeshore Club offers Resort Style living with nice pool, tennis courts, shuffleboard and more. Close to many renowned fishing lakes and golf. The City Center hosts a Post Office, Gym, Chaple, Community Center, Gift Shop, and more! Located near shopping, medical needs, restaurants and only an hour from Vero Beach! Call today to schedule a viewing of this exceptional Villa!

23. 2025-04-24
    status Active 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    This one-bedroom Villa is ready for you to call Home! Clean, well maintained and furnished! Parking at your front door. Lakeshore Club offers Resort Style living with nice pool, tennis courts, shuffleboard and more. Close to many renowned fishing lakes and golf. The City Center hosts a Post Office, Gym, Chaple, Community Center, Gift Shop, and more! Located near shopping, medical needs, restaurants and only an hour from Vero Beach! Call today to schedule a viewing of this exceptional Villa!

24. 2025-04-11
    status Pending 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    This one-bedroom Villa is ready for you to call Home! Clean, well maintained and furnished! Parking at your front door. Lakeshore Club offers Resort Style living with nice pool, tennis courts, shuffleboard and more. Close to many renowned fishing lakes and golf. The City Center hosts a Post Office, Gym, Chaple, Community Center, Gift Shop, and more! Located near shopping, medical needs, restaurants and only an hour from Vero Beach! Call today to schedule a viewing of this exceptional Villa!

25. 2025-04-03
    price $79,900 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    This one-bedroom Villa is ready for you to call Home! Clean, well maintained and furnished! Parking at your front door. Lakeshore Club offers Resort Style living with nice pool, tennis courts, shuffleboard and more. Close to many renowned fishing lakes and golf. The City Center hosts a Post Office, Gym, Chaple, Community Center, Gift Shop, and more! Located near shopping, medical needs, restaurants and only an hour from Vero Beach! Call today to schedule a viewing of this exceptional Villa!

26. 2025-03-24
    price $89,900 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    This one-bedroom Villa is ready for you to call Home! Clean, well maintained and furnished! Parking at your front door. Lakeshore Club offers Resort Style living with nice pool, tennis courts, shuffleboard and more. Close to many renowned fishing lakes and golf. The City Center hosts a Post Office, Gym, Chaple, Community Center, Gift Shop, and more! Located near shopping, medical needs, restaurants and only an hour from Vero Beach! Call today to schedule a viewing of this exceptional Villa!

27. 2025-02-14
    listed $99,900 Active 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    This one-bedroom Villa is ready for you to call Home! Clean, well maintained and furnished! Parking at your front door. Lakeshore Club offers Resort Style living with nice pool, tennis courts, shuffleboard and more. Close to many renowned fishing lakes and golf. The City Center hosts a Post Office, Gym, Chaple, Community Center, Gift Shop, and more! Located near shopping, medical needs, restaurants and only an hour from Vero Beach! Call today to schedule a viewing of this exceptional Villa!

28. 2006-04-20
    soldstatus $27,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,228 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,228 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,260
• − Property taxes: −$1,228
• − Insurance: −$470
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,161
• − Management: −$1,161
• − HOA: −$4,200
• − Depreciation: −$2,732
• Taxable loss: −$1,700
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$408
• After-tax cash flow: $65/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Indian Lake Estates

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 30,351
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,527
• Household income: $57,224
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 148.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.62%
• Current HPI: 340.6056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+247.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $93,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $98,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Rental Removed $1,250 STELLARMLS
• 2025-09-15 Listed for Rent $1,250 STELLARMLS
• 2025-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2025-05-30 Sold (MLS) $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-24 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-24 Price Changed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-14 Listed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,228 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.