507 S Lake St · Carlsbad, NM 88220

$140,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 870 sqft · SingleFamily · 96 Days on market

Built 1950 7,500 sqft lot $161/sqft · 21% above area Est $115k · 21% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy space bursting with potential! This compact home is the perfect opportunity for a first-time buyer or investor looking to start or expand their real estate portfolio. This property needs some cosmetic updates and a little TLC. The smaller footprint makes 'putting your own stamp on it' a lot more budget-friendly. The 2 outdoor buildings are welcomed extra space. Both have electricity and one has water that could provide additional living space. It could also be used for a private office or she/he shed. Grab your favorite realtor and take a look!

Key facts

• Outdoor buildings
• Private office
• 7,500 sq ft lot

Tags

• OUTDOOR BUILDINGS
• ADDITIONAL LIVING SPACE
• PRIVATE OFFICE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#20 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: commute C-, health & safety C-, schools D.
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 156 units permitted in Eddy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Eddy County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,400 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.89%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,344
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: 21.38%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,236
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $19,943
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88220

• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,454 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $791/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,087

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $370	-5% $330	+0% $290	+5% $251	+10% $211
Rent	-10% $176	-5% $233	+0% $290	+5% $348	+10% $405
Rate	-1.0pp $361	-0.5pp $326	base $290	+0.5pp $254	+1.0pp $217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
302 N Lake St Carlsbad, NM	2.0	1.0	932	$1,500	$1.61	44d	1	0.54mi
1308 W Church St Unit A Carlsbad, NM	1.0	1.0	750	$975	$1.30	44d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   statusdays on market $140,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-04-21
   price $140,000 555-char remark

   Show marketing remark (555 chars)

   Cozy space bursting with potential! This compact home is the perfect opportunity for a first-time buyer or investor looking to start or expand their real estate portfolio. This property needs some cosmetic updates and a little TLC. The smaller footprint makes 'putting your own stamp on it' a lot more budget-friendly. The 2 outdoor buildings are welcomed extra space. Both have electricity and one has water that could provide additional living space. It could also be used for a private office or she/he shed. Grab your favorite realtor and take a look!

9. 2026-03-25
   price $154,000 555-char remark

   Show marketing remark (555 chars)

   Cozy space bursting with potential! This compact home is the perfect opportunity for a first-time buyer or investor looking to start or expand their real estate portfolio. This property needs some cosmetic updates and a little TLC. The smaller footprint makes 'putting your own stamp on it' a lot more budget-friendly. The 2 outdoor buildings are welcomed extra space. Both have electricity and one has water that could provide additional living space. It could also be used for a private office or she/he shed. Grab your favorite realtor and take a look!

10. 2026-02-26
    listed $159,000 Active 555-char remark

    Show marketing remark (555 chars)

    Cozy space bursting with potential! This compact home is the perfect opportunity for a first-time buyer or investor looking to start or expand their real estate portfolio. This property needs some cosmetic updates and a little TLC. The smaller footprint makes 'putting your own stamp on it' a lot more budget-friendly. The 2 outdoor buildings are welcomed extra space. Both have electricity and one has water that could provide additional living space. It could also be used for a private office or she/he shed. Grab your favorite realtor and take a look!

11. 2018-12-06
    soldstatus
12. 2018-12-03
    soldstatus 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    Two bedroom, 1 bath home, entry way, nice porch, 1 car carport, little building attached to carport, with water and electricity, back garage has electricity. Large cement slab in the back yard. Dog run. Sidewalk, pitched roof and shinges

13. 2018-08-30
    listed $100,000 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    Two bedroom, 1 bath home, entry way, nice porch, 1 car carport, little building attached to carport, with water and electricity, back garage has electricity. Large cement slab in the back yard. Dog run. Sidewalk, pitched roof and shinges

14. 2011-01-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $791 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,120 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$329/yr (+$27/mo · 41.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$791
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,396
• − Management: −$1,396
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $1,252
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$301
• After-tax cash flow: $3,184/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #7925

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, NM
• County: Eddy County · 58,370 people
• City population: 39,828
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• Population (ZIP): 39,828
• Household income: $78,162
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 661.0

Population outlook (Eddy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,505 people
• By 2030: 69,797 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 79,191 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 89,199 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 115,829 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 129,336 · +97.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 46% Two or more races 22% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Eddy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.9) · D 21.4% · R 77.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -55.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.9 2020: R+51.8 2016: R+41.6 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.72%
• Current HPI: 114.115
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+40.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $140,000 NMMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $154,000 NMMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $159,000 NMMLS
• 2018-12-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-12-03 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2018-08-30 Listed $100,000 NMMLS
• 2011-01-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $791 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.