538 Charles Ave · St. Paul, MN 55103

$209,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,426 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1885 4,922 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Great investor or owner/occupy opportunity! Up/down duplex with two bedrooms in each unit. Unit 2 has new kitchen cabinets and appliances as well as fresh paint and new carpet throughout. Great location! Walk to restaurants, shops, library and more!

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• New carpet
• New water heater

Tags

• DUPLEX INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• RECENT REPAIRS AND UPDATES
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW CARPET
• FRESH PAINT
• ROOF REPLACED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property has 2 total units; Gross income reported at $30,840; Net operating income reported at $28,372; Manager expense reported at $2,467; Owner pays water; tenants pay all utilities; Standard rental license in place

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas; Electric service by Xcel Energy
• Home design: Residential income property — duplex (up and down); Two-story; Not owner-occupied
• Construction: Shingle roof (8 years old or newer); Brick/mortar foundation; Foundation area approximately 880
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Partial fencing; Lot approximately 0.113 acres (40 x 124)

Interior

• Kitchen: Each unit includes kitchen facilities
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total (2 in each unit)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms total (1 in each unit)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Window air conditioning in each unit
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Brick/mortar foundation; Two levels
• Laundry & utility: No laundry features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($34k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $207k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 44 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,488/mo this rent would consume 136% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 787% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 34y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1885 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $206,751 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1885 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.26%
• DSCR: 3.55
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $150,597
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.57×
• Total profit: $386,235
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55103

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,488 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$343 /mo · $4,114/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,152
• Net cashflow: $2,804

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,938

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,923	-5% $2,864	+0% $2,804	+5% $2,745	+10% $2,686
Rent	-10% $2,371	-5% $2,588	+0% $2,804	+5% $3,021	+10% $3,238
Rate	-1.0pp $2,910	-0.5pp $2,858	base $2,804	+0.5pp $2,750	+1.0pp $2,695

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$5,488
Total (2 units)			$5,488

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
255 Western Ave N Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$3,700	$3.53	2d	23	0.63mi
101 10th St E Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	887	$2,490	$2.81	2d	25	1.40mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,900 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $209,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,900 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,900 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,114 · $343/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,114 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $65,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$4,114
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,268
• − Management: −$5,268
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable income: $32,292
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7,750
• After-tax cash flow: $25,904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 13,125
• Household income: $48,390
• Rent vs Own: 58.3% rent · 41.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 787.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 28% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Vietnam, Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 16% Spanish 5% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.28%
• Current HPI: 327.7672
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+459.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $209,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Listed $219,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-10 Rental Removed $1,450 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-07 Listed for Rent $1,450 APPFOLIO
• 2023-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $192,000 Public Records
• 2023-01-13 Sold (MLS) $192,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-06 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-02 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-26 Listed $200,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-24 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-22 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-15 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-28 Listed $200,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1992-09-11 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-03-11 Listed $37,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,114 · -10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.