Clayton Real Deal Plan · Tyler, TX 75708

$95,359

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 956 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 6% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tour a home in our community on your own time, without an agent, using our self guided tours! Tours available 7 days a week from 6am-9pm, just book a time slot and see it for yourself. Go to our website, navigate to our Fannin Meadows community page and look for the UTour button on the side of the page! ------------------------------------- Monthly Payment starts at $1,597 * Built with the latest in smart energy features. Financing is offered through First Choice MH LLC, a licensed mortgage loan originator in the States of Michigan, Ohio, Texas, Nevada, Indiana, and Illinois. Main office 600 W. 22nd Street Suite 101 Oak Brook, IL 60523. NMLS# 1241272. Equal Housing Lender. All conditions are subject to credit approval and approval for residency within an authorized community.

Key facts

• Listed 956 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $356 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.6% in Tyler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Winona ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #539 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Winona El (math 20% / reading 26%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 565 students, 90% FRL); Winona Middle (math 42% / reading 41%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 251 students, 87% FRL); Winona H S (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 288 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 56% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($659 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 956 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,915 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 956 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.02%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $44,508
• Equity at exit: $53,833

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $115,067
• Equity at exit: $92,738

Cash invested: $26,701 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75708

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,285 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$500
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,430/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $834

Max offer price $95,359

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $422	-5% $389	+0% $356	+5% $324	+10% $291
Rent	-10% $255	-5% $306	+0% $356	+5% $407	+10% $458
Rate	-1.0pp $404	-0.5pp $381	base $356	+0.5pp $332	+1.0pp $307

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,840
• Closing costs: $2,861
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12277 State Highway 155 Tyler, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1392	$1,299	$0.93	15d	5	0.01mi
12336 Chapman Rd Tyler, TX	3.0	1.5	1395	$1,425	$1.02	22d	1	0.83mi
12547 Chapman Rd Unit M Tyler, TX	2.0	1.0	904	$875	$0.97	45d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $95,359 Active 956 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,359 Active 954 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,359 Active 953 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,359 Active 952 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,359 Active 951 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,359 Active 950 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,359 Active 948 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,359 Active 947 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,359 Active 945 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $95,359 Active 944 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,359 Active 943 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,359 Active 942 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,359 Active 937 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,359 Active 936 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,359 Active 935 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,359 Active 934 DOM
17. 2025-04-25
    price $95,359 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Tour a home in our community on your own time, without an agent, using our self guided tours! Tours available 7 days a week from 6am-9pm, just book a time slot and see it for yourself. Go to our website, navigate to our Fannin Meadows community page and look for the UTour button on the side of the page! ------------------------------------- Monthly Payment starts at $1,597 * Built with the latest in smart energy features. Financing is offered through First Choice MH LLC, a licensed mortgage loan originator in the States of Michigan, Ohio, Texas, Nevada, Indiana, and Illinois. Main office 600 W. 22nd Street Suite 101 Oak Brook, IL 60523. NMLS# 1241272. Equal Housing Lender. All conditions are subject to credit approval and approval for residency within an authorized community.

18. 2024-07-25
    price $102,340 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Tour a home in our community on your own time, without an agent, using our self guided tours! Tours available 7 days a week from 6am-9pm, just book a time slot and see it for yourself. Go to our website, navigate to our Fannin Meadows community page and look for the UTour button on the side of the page! ------------------------------------- Monthly Payment starts at $1,597 * Built with the latest in smart energy features. Financing is offered through First Choice MH LLC, a licensed mortgage loan originator in the States of Michigan, Ohio, Texas, Nevada, Indiana, and Illinois. Main office 600 W. 22nd Street Suite 101 Oak Brook, IL 60523. NMLS# 1241272. Equal Housing Lender. All conditions are subject to credit approval and approval for residency within an authorized community.

19. 2024-01-15
    price $99,200 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Tour a home in our community on your own time, without an agent, using our self guided tours! Tours available 7 days a week from 6am-9pm, just book a time slot and see it for yourself. Go to our website, navigate to our Fannin Meadows community page and look for the UTour button on the side of the page! ------------------------------------- Monthly Payment starts at $1,597 * Built with the latest in smart energy features. Financing is offered through First Choice MH LLC, a licensed mortgage loan originator in the States of Michigan, Ohio, Texas, Nevada, Indiana, and Illinois. Main office 600 W. 22nd Street Suite 101 Oak Brook, IL 60523. NMLS# 1241272. Equal Housing Lender. All conditions are subject to credit approval and approval for residency within an authorized community.

20. 2023-11-08
    listed $101,170 Active 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Tour a home in our community on your own time, without an agent, using our self guided tours! Tours available 7 days a week from 6am-9pm, just book a time slot and see it for yourself. Go to our website, navigate to our Fannin Meadows community page and look for the UTour button on the side of the page! ------------------------------------- Monthly Payment starts at $1,597 * Built with the latest in smart energy features. Financing is offered through First Choice MH LLC, a licensed mortgage loan originator in the States of Michigan, Ohio, Texas, Nevada, Indiana, and Illinois. Main office 600 W. 22nd Street Suite 101 Oak Brook, IL 60523. NMLS# 1241272. Equal Housing Lender. All conditions are subject to credit approval and approval for residency within an authorized community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,342
• − Property taxes: −$1,430
• − Insurance: −$477
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,234
• − Management: −$1,234
• − Depreciation: −$2,774
• Taxable income: $2,934
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$704
• After-tax cash flow: $3,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior. It is ready for immediate occupancy and has potential for further value enhancement through minor cosmetic upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves curb appeal and first impression
• Both Add smart home features — Enhances home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Improves curb appeal and first impression ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Enhances home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winona ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846230
• Math proficiency: 32% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,761
• Composite: 28.98/100
• National rank: #6624
• State rank: #539 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tyler

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #4181

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 127,842
• Population (ZIP): 10,001

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 39% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Danish 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 37% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.96%
• Current HPI: 216.4494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-25 Price Changed $95,359 Zillow
• 2024-07-25 Price Changed $102,340 Zillow
• 2024-01-15 Price Changed $99,200 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $101,170 Zillow