1004 Fairfax Dr · Godley, TX 76044

$289,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,702 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 2020 6,186 sqft lot $170/sqft · 13% below area Est $334k · 13% under $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GODLEY ISD! Listed in the heart of Godley. This beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home has it all. The living room has an open concept, natural light, and plenty of space for entertaining. Kitchen includes: lots of cabinet space for storage, island, stainless steel appliances, granite counters, large pantry, and an eat in dining area. The home features generously sized bedrooms, including a comfortable primary suite with a private bath, providing a peaceful retreat at the end of the day. Additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing family. The backyard is a private sanctuary perfect for outdoor activities and relaxation. Spend your evenings unwinding on the patio, enjoying the Texas sunset. Garage has epoxy floors, AC unit, room for hangouts, and a pool table!

Key facts

• 6,186 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2020

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-324 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.8% in Godley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#226 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Godley ISD (rural): math 34% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 565 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,848 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.78%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $334,053
• List price: $289,999
• Delta: -13.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1156 Goldenrod Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,711 (+0%)	5mo	$235,000	$137	81
1027 Stockton Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,859 (+9%)	1mo	$315,000	$169	78
933 Creekhollow Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,672 (-2%)	1mo	$320,000	$191	76
517 Mckittrick Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,759 (+3%)	6mo	$369,000	$210	68
924 Creekhollow Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,672 (-2%)	8mo	$314,000	$188	68
517 Highview Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,798 (+6%)	2mo	$335,000	$186	67
525 Mckittrick Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+6%)	3mo	$359,500	$199	67
200 High Ridge Ct	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,762 (+4%)	6mo	$369,000	$209	63
432 Avian Way	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,794 (+5%)	1mo	$299,990	$167	60
904 River Oaks Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,840 (+8%)	8mo	$355,000	$193	59
300 W Godley Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,531 (-10%)	7mo	$265,000	$173	48
448 Avian Way	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,952 (+15%)	3mo	$319,990	$164	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-67,396
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-84,404
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76044

• Home prices YoY: -12.4%
• Active inventory: 565
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,464 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$596 /mo · $7,148/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,874

Max offer price $232,848

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
920 Elk Ridge Run Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1692	$2,499	$1.48	16d	1	0.31mi
920 Elk Ridge Run Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1683	$2,499	$1.48	10d	1	0.31mi
201 Cliff Ct Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,900	$1.57	10d	1	0.45mi
644 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,995	$1.20	43d	1	0.62mi
9500 County Road 1001 Godley, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1063	$2,025	$1.90	1d	13	0.92mi
8213 Korat Vis Godley, TX	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,300	$1.24	24d	1	1.16mi
812 Rodgers Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1747	$2,600	$1.49	43d	1	1.18mi
226 Harp Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,400	$1.38	1d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,999 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,999 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,999 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,999 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,999 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,999 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,999 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,999 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,999 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,999 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,999 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,999 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,999 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,999 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    price $289,999 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    GODLEY ISD! Listed in the heart of Godley. This beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home has it all. The living room has an open concept, natural light, and plenty of space for entertaining. Kitchen includes: lots of cabinet space for storage, island, stainless steel appliances, granite counters, large pantry, and an eat in dining area. The home features generously sized bedrooms, including a comfortable primary suite with a private bath, providing a peaceful retreat at the end of the day. Additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing family. The backyard is a private sanctuary perfect for outdoor activities and relaxation. Spend your evenings unwinding on the patio, enjoying the Texas sunset. Garage has epoxy floors, AC unit, room for hangouts, and a pool table!

16. 2026-04-10
    listed $299,999 Active 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    GODLEY ISD! Listed in the heart of Godley. This beautiful 3 bedroom 2 bath home has it all. The living room has an open concept, natural light, and plenty of space for entertaining. Kitchen includes: lots of cabinet space for storage, island, stainless steel appliances, granite counters, large pantry, and an eat in dining area. The home features generously sized bedrooms, including a comfortable primary suite with a private bath, providing a peaceful retreat at the end of the day. Additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing family. The backyard is a private sanctuary perfect for outdoor activities and relaxation. Spend your evenings unwinding on the patio, enjoying the Texas sunset. Garage has epoxy floors, AC unit, room for hangouts, and a pool table!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,148 · $596/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,148 · $596/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$7,148
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,366
• − Management: −$2,366
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$8,835
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,120
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Godley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820960
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,332
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5820
• State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

Livability — Godley

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #5528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Godley, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,759

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.58%
• Current HPI: 259.1029
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $289,999 NTREIS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $299,999 NTREIS

Property tax history

+101.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,148 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.