2528 Carriage Rd · Fayetteville, NC 28312

$124,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1990 Est $149k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away in the Cedar Creek/Lock’s Creek area of Fayetteville, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers approximately 1,120 sq ft on a spacious 0.43-acre lot. The home features a functional layout with a large living area, separate kitchen, two full bathrooms, driveway parking, and a generous yard with room to enjoy the outdoors. This location offers a quieter residential setting while still being convenient to everyday amenities, area schools, shopping, dining, I-95 access, downtown Fayetteville, Cape Fear Botanical Garden, Fayetteville Regional Airport, and other local destinations. Whether you’re looking for a primary residence or an investment opportunity, this pro

Key facts

• Large living area
• Generous yard
• Separate kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• LARGE LIVING AREA
• SEPARATE KITCHEN
• GENEROUS YARD
• QUIETER RESIDENTIAL SETTING
• CONVENIENT TO AMENITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Holding tank or septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Subdivision: LOCKS CREEK

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Laminate flooring; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $124k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $124k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.9% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mac Williams Middle (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 1,151 students, 58% FRL); Cape Fear High (math 75% / reading 47%, grade C+, #202 of 535 statewide, top 39%, 1,529 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 53% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($857 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $124k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,140 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.90%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $148,960
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1108 Windmill Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,243 (+11%)	1mo	$165,000	$133	74
1120 Windmill Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,190 (+6%)	23mo	$155,000	$130	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $90,800
• Equity at exit: $111,709

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.18×
• Total profit: $249,234
• Equity at exit: $240,905

Cash invested: $34,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28312

• Home prices YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$650
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,573/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,139

Max offer price $124,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,000
• Closing costs: $3,720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1117 Bombay Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1255	$1,600	$1.27	23d	1	0.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $124,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,999 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,999 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $129,999 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $134,999 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,999 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $134,999 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,999 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $134,999 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,999 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,999 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,999 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,999 Active 7 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    listed $139,999 Active
18. 1996-12-31
    soldstatus $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,573 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,573 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,946
• − Property taxes: −$1,573
• − Insurance: −$1,418
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$3,607
• Taxable income: $2,584
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$620
• After-tax cash flow: $3,754/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fayetteville, NC
• City population: 226,118
• Population (ZIP): 19,889

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 29% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.75%
• Current HPI: 306.7749
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+191.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $139,999 LPRMLS
• 1996-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,573 · +54.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.