316 Pear Ln · Santa Rosa, CA 95407

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 92 Days on market

Built 1969 Est $112k · 11% under ↓ 38% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Are you a first-time home buyer looking for a more affordable option compared to a condominium? If so, welcome home to 316 Pear Lane! Come and check out this wonderful and well cared for home inside the recognized Mountain View Mobile Estates park. The location of the home at the bottom of the block means less noise, fewer neighbors driving by, and better backyard views! Don't forget about the location near Santa Rosa Avenue, which is within walking distance to public transportation, grocery stores, clothing stores, and plenty of food options. Achieve homeownership today!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1969
• Listed 91 days

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEW MOBILE ESTATES
• BETTER BACKYARD VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: $1,724
• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public sewer; Utilities: see remarks
• Home design: Manufactured in-park single wide
• Construction: Marlette manufactured home; Skirting: Other
• Exterior features: Located in Mountain View Mobile Estates; Manufactured home in a park (single wide)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas oven; Gas cook top; Hood over range; Microwave; Ceramic counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with shower stall
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Ceramic counters in the kitchen; Free standing gas oven; Gas cook top; Hood over range; Microwave
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.6% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Rosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#112 in CA, #3,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.30%
• DSCR: 3.91
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,320
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
252 Pear Ln	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	743 (+3%)	1mo	$35,000	$47	86
280 Aileen Way	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (0%)	10mo	$102,000	$142	79
2963 Santa Rosa Ave Unit C-12	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	750 (+4%)	0mo	$117,000	$156	70
255 Apple Ln	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	784 (+9%)	12mo	$70,000	$89	66
127 Coachman Ln #13	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	720 (0%)	12mo	$150,000	$208	55
115 Coachman Ln #19	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	672 (-7%)	8mo	$120,000	$179	52
29 Wayside Dr	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	784 (+9%)	12mo	$119,000	$152	40
131 El Crystal Dr	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	640 (-11%)	13mo	$122,500	$191	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 64.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $80,688
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.95×
• Total profit: $194,588
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95407

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,804 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $1,524

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
240 Burt St Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	742	$2,563	$3.45	13d	10	0.12mi
1018 Bellevue Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$2,145	$2.12	13d	1	0.47mi
1020 Kawana Springs Rd Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	890	$3,549	$3.99	13d	27	0.62mi
2111 Kawana Springs Rd Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$3,465	$3.70	13d	8	0.72mi
147 Colgan Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	623	$1,941	$3.12	13d	3	1.00mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 1591 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	747	$2,500	$3.35	13d	1	1.17mi
1501 Patty Pl Unit 1555 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	747	$1,995	$2.67	13d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $100,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $100,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $100,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $100,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-04-08
   status Active
6. 2026-03-31
   historical Contingent (Show)
7. 2026-03-02
   listed $100,000 Active
8. 2025-09-28
   listed $100,000 Active
9. 2024-05-29
   listed $130,000 Active
10. 2024-01-22
    price $146,000
11. 2023-11-20
    price $156,000
12. 2023-11-13
    listed $160,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,643
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,691
• − Management: −$2,691
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $17,749
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,260
• After-tax cash flow: $14,025/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Rosa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #3940

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 210,074
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,036
• Household income: $82,863
• Rent vs Own: 47.6% rent · 52.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1943.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 29% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 50% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 50% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -852.74%
• Current HPI: 256.4307
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.93%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-37.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2026-03-31 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $100,000 BAREIS
• 2025-09-28 Listed $100,000 BAREIS
• 2024-05-29 Listed $130,000 BAREIS
• 2024-01-22 Price Changed $146,000 BAREIS
• 2023-11-20 Price Changed $156,000 BAREIS
• 2023-11-13 Listed $160,000 BAREIS