1521 S 29th Ct · Broken Arrow, OK 74014

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,592 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 2018 7,985 sqft lot Est $275k · 27% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom 2 Bath home built by Rausch Coleman in December of 2018! Located less than 10 min. from downtown BA and has direct access to the BA expy right out of the neighborhood! The home includes a raised 10-foot ceiling in the living area, a large covered back porch, in-ground storm shelter in the garage installed in early 2019, high-quality roofing materials, and beautiful vinyl plank flooring throughout the living & kitchen. Transferrable 2-10 builder’s warranty covers systems & structure respectively.

Key facts

• 7,985 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2018

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (1.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (1.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.0% in Broken Arrow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#7 in OK, #2,691 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F.
• Broken Arrow (suburban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #79 of 270 in OK (top 29%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 652 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 581 units permitted in Wagoner County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wagoner County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $156k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,035 (1.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.89%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $275,416
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2805 E Quincy St	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,519 (-5%)	2mo	$237,500	$156	88
1304 S 33rd St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,535 (-4%)	0mo	$255,000	$166	82
2804 E Quincy St	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,399 (-12%)	2mo	$242,000	$173	76
2806 E Pittsburg St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,399 (-12%)	1mo	$234,900	$168	74
2725 E Quincy St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,396 (-12%)	2mo	$245,000	$176	73
1701 S 21st St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,574 (-1%)	1mo	$282,900	$180	69
1614 S 31st St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-15%)	4mo	$235,000	$173	68
1300 S 29th St	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,784 (+12%)	3mo	$247,500	$139	64
8918 S 198th EastAvenue	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,741 (+9%)	6mo	$240,000	$138	60
2104 E Vandalia St	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,614 (+1%)	5mo	$292,500	$181	57
1617 S 21st St	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (+13%)	0mo	$315,990	$176	45
1713 S 21st St	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (+13%)	1mo	$314,900	$175	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-19,598
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,335
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74014

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 652
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,980 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,447/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,691

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
604 S 28th Pl Broken Arrow, OK	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,800	$1.00	23d	1	0.61mi
2512 E Dallas St Broken Arrow, OK	4.0	2.0	1922	$1,899	$0.99	23d	1	0.88mi
1240 E Richmond St Broken Arrow, OK	3.0	2.0	1506	$1,800	$1.20	21d	1	1.09mi
1604 E Gary St Broken Arrow, OK	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,095	$1.47	3d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 55-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   listed $200,000 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,447 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,447 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,447
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,901
• − Management: −$1,901
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$506
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$122
• After-tax cash flow: $2,862/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Broken Arrow
• NCES district ID: 4005490
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,646
• Composite: 23.86/100
• National rank: #7801
• State rank: #79 of 270 in OK

Livability — Broken Arrow

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #2691

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Broken Arrow, OK
• County: Wagoner County · 61,834 people
• City population: 144,172
• Metro: Tulsa, OK
• Population (ZIP): 45,212
• Household income: $95,501
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 289.0

Population outlook (Wagoner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,796 people
• By 2030: 88,162 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 93,882 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 98,219 · +15.8%
• By 2075: 106,561 · +25.7%
• By 2100: 109,360 · +29.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Native American 6% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wagoner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.2% · R 74.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.8pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+50.1 2016: R+52.0 2012: R+45.7 2008: R+41.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -206.67%
• Current HPI: 203.7301
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.12%
• Metro: Tulsa, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+30.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-06-17 Listed $200,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2020-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $155,667 Public Records
• 2020-02-21 Sold (MLS) $149,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2020-01-09 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2019-12-16 Listed $150,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2019-01-07 Sold (MLS) $152,810 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2018-10-03 Listed $152,810 MLS Technology, Inc.

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,447 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.