4099 Concord · Forward, PA 15037

$39,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,308 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1977 435 sqft lot $31/sqft · 60% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Call agent Seller just bought this and sadly he passed All appliances remain window treatments refrigerator electric range

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1977
• Listed 57 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $529 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($975 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Elizabeth Forward SD (suburban): math 41% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #136 of 539 in PA (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,996 units permitted in Allegheny County in 2024 (1,588 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $38,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.81%
• DSCR: 3.53
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $100,452
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -60.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4097 Concord Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,196 (-9%)	8mo	$32,000	$27	73
2001 Pond Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+7%)	5mo	$175,000	$125	70
1258 Madison	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,425 (+9%)	7mo	$55,000	$39	62
206 Kimberly Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-12%)	23mo	$230,000	$200	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $27,213
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.00×
• Total profit: $67,044
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15037

• Home prices YoY: -11.8%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $975 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $186/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $529

Break-even live

Break-even rent $306

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $551	-5% $540	+0% $529	+5% $518	+10% $506
Rent	-10% $452	-5% $490	+0% $529	+5% $567	+10% $606
Rate	-1.0pp $549	-0.5pp $539	base $529	+0.5pp $519	+1.0pp $508

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Woods Ln Elizabeth, PA	3.0	2.0	924	$975	$1.06	2d	1	0.14mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,900 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $39,900 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,900 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-04-22
    listed $39,900 Active 123-char remark

    Show marketing remark (123 chars)

    Call agent Seller just bought this and sadly he passed All appliances remain window treatments refrigerator electric range

15. 2025-09-30
    soldstatus $35,000 Closed 1006-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1006 chars)

    This beautifully maintained mobile home has been thoughtfully updated and lovingly cared for over the years, making it truly move-in ready. Offering three comfortable bedrooms—including an owner’s suite with a private en suite bath—plus a second full bathroom tucked away for added convenience, this home combines comfort and functionality. The electric was just installed in 2020 and features 200 amps! You’ll appreciate the off-street parking for two vehicles, as well as the inviting side porch—an ideal spot to enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evening. The level lot showcases pride of ownership, while the open floor plan creates a warm and welcoming atmosphere, perfect for everyday living or entertaining guests. Conveniently located near Route 51, you’ll have easy access to the Elizabeth Forward School District, shopping, dining, and all of life’s daily needs. This property is an excellent opportunity you won’t want to miss! SOLD AS IS.

16. 2025-09-29
    status Pending 1006-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1006 chars)

    This beautifully maintained mobile home has been thoughtfully updated and lovingly cared for over the years, making it truly move-in ready. Offering three comfortable bedrooms—including an owner’s suite with a private en suite bath—plus a second full bathroom tucked away for added convenience, this home combines comfort and functionality. The electric was just installed in 2020 and features 200 amps! You’ll appreciate the off-street parking for two vehicles, as well as the inviting side porch—an ideal spot to enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evening. The level lot showcases pride of ownership, while the open floor plan creates a warm and welcoming atmosphere, perfect for everyday living or entertaining guests. Conveniently located near Route 51, you’ll have easy access to the Elizabeth Forward School District, shopping, dining, and all of life’s daily needs. This property is an excellent opportunity you won’t want to miss! SOLD AS IS.

17. 2025-09-08
    historical Contingent 1006-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1006 chars)

    This beautifully maintained mobile home has been thoughtfully updated and lovingly cared for over the years, making it truly move-in ready. Offering three comfortable bedrooms—including an owner’s suite with a private en suite bath—plus a second full bathroom tucked away for added convenience, this home combines comfort and functionality. The electric was just installed in 2020 and features 200 amps! You’ll appreciate the off-street parking for two vehicles, as well as the inviting side porch—an ideal spot to enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evening. The level lot showcases pride of ownership, while the open floor plan creates a warm and welcoming atmosphere, perfect for everyday living or entertaining guests. Conveniently located near Route 51, you’ll have easy access to the Elizabeth Forward School District, shopping, dining, and all of life’s daily needs. This property is an excellent opportunity you won’t want to miss! SOLD AS IS.

18. 2025-09-04
    listed $39,900 Active 1006-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1006 chars)

    This beautifully maintained mobile home has been thoughtfully updated and lovingly cared for over the years, making it truly move-in ready. Offering three comfortable bedrooms—including an owner’s suite with a private en suite bath—plus a second full bathroom tucked away for added convenience, this home combines comfort and functionality. The electric was just installed in 2020 and features 200 amps! You’ll appreciate the off-street parking for two vehicles, as well as the inviting side porch—an ideal spot to enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evening. The level lot showcases pride of ownership, while the open floor plan creates a warm and welcoming atmosphere, perfect for everyday living or entertaining guests. Conveniently located near Route 51, you’ll have easy access to the Elizabeth Forward School District, shopping, dining, and all of life’s daily needs. This property is an excellent opportunity you won’t want to miss! SOLD AS IS.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $186 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $408 · $34/mo
• Expected delta: +$222/yr (+$19/mo · 119.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$186
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$936
• − Management: −$936
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $6,047
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,451
• After-tax cash flow: $4,895/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elizabeth Forward SD
• NCES district ID: 4209090
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $53,344
• Composite: 45.5/100
• National rank: #2611
• State rank: #136 of 539 in PA

Livability — Forward

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,412

Population outlook (Allegheny County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,250,282 people
• By 2030: 1,256,482 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 1,256,318 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 1,244,169 · -0.5%
• By 2075: 1,197,693 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 1,093,187 · -12.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Slovak 6% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, India
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegheny

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.3) · D 59.7% · R 39.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.8pp toward D · 2008: 15.5pp · 2024: 20.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.3 2020: D+20.4 2016: D+16.4 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+15.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.61%
• Current HPI: 266.2418
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $39,900 West Penn MLS
• 2025-09-30 Sold (MLS) $35,000 West Penn MLS
• 2025-09-29 Pending — West Penn MLS
• 2025-09-08 Contingent — West Penn MLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $39,900 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $186 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.