15126 Palmer Lake Cir #205 · Pelican Marsh, FL 34109

$359,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,236 sqft · Condo public records · 98 Days on market

Built 2016 $472/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

C2892 - Bask in the longest Western lake views available in Livingston Lakes. This second floor, end-unit allows brilliant natural light to flow into an open great room space. Kitchen is adorned with hardwood cabinets, granite counters and 2016 appliances. Hurricane proof windows and sliders offer the peace of mind to lock and leave the unit. Livingston Lakes offers a resort style pool with lap lanes. Outdoor seating abounds around a fireplace and cabanas. The covered grilling stations at the amenity are perfect for outdoor dining or gatherings. Expansive Clubhouse featuring a common room and kitchen can be used or reserved for larger gatherings upon request. On site fitness center boasts treadmills, elliptical, dumbbells, Smith machine and various other equipment. Livingston Lakes is pet friendly upon approval of Condo board. North Collier Regional Park and Golisano Children's Museum are just South of community. Seed to Table is a very short distance and walk-able from Livingston Lakes as well.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Second floor condo
• Lake views

Tags

• SECOND FLOOR CONDO
• SCREENED LANAI
• LAKE VIEWS
• WELL EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WALK IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Restrictions: limited number of vehicles, no commercial, no RV
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (Condo/Hotel, gated community); Quarterly master HOA fee; Master HOA covers trash removal; Community amenities include clubhouse and sidewalks; Total annual recurring HOA fees listed

Exterior

• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Residential low-rise building (1–3 stories); 2-story building; Rear exposure facing east; Part of Livingston Lakes development (Garden Homes at Livingston Lakes)
• Construction: Built in 2016; Stucco exterior; Built-up or flat roof; Impact resistant windows; Has waterfront
• Exterior features: Pond; Lake frontage; Views of lake, pond, and community pool/club

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator with freezer and icemaker
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Smoke detectors; Breakfast room; Screened lanai/porch; 3 ceiling fans; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $360k).
• Recommended offer: $328k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pelican Marsh Elementary School (math 87% / reading 83%, grade A+, #35 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 709 students, 29% FRL); Barron Collier High School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade B, #76 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,650 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 28% FRL vs 55% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 75% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 424 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,742/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 1712% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($328k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $327,509 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.03%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.29% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-2,076
• Equity at exit: $109,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $35,919
• Equity at exit: $136,374

Cash invested: $100,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34109

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,742 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,887
• Tax from tax record: −$276 /mo · $3,316/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$472
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$786
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,526

Max offer price $359,900

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,975
• Closing costs: $10,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15126 Palmer Lake Cir Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1254	$3,700	$2.95	23d	2	0.02mi
15144 Palmer Lake Cir #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1375	$6,500	$4.73	23d	1	0.09mi
4965 Sandra Bay Dr #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1377	$2,200	$1.60	14d	1	0.39mi
5000 Immokalee Rd Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1115	$4,272	$3.83	14d	68	0.40mi
4940 Cougar Ct S Unit 1545947P Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1367	$2,185	$1.60	14d	1	0.42mi
4945 Cougar Ct S #105 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1377	$2,750	$2.00	14d	1	0.44mi
4910 Cougar Ct N Unit 1-205 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1377	$2,050	$1.49	14d	1	0.51mi
4970 Deerfield Way Unit F-203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1388	$1,990	$1.43	14d	1	0.56mi
5045 Cedar Springs Dr #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$5,000	$4.16	23d	1	0.56mi
5045 Cedar Springs Dr #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1427	$4,200	$2.94	23d	1	0.56mi
4950 Deerfield Way #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1388	$2,000	$1.44	21d	1	0.57mi
4960 Deerfield Way Unit E102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$4,250	$3.54	14d	1	0.57mi
2115 Malibu Lake Cir Naples, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1188	$2,791	$2.35	13d	56	0.57mi
4680 Saint Croix Ln #512 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1196	$2,490	$2.08	23d	1	0.58mi
4680 Saint Croix Ln Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	931	$2,400	$2.58	14d	2	0.58mi
4650 Saint Croix Ln #725 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	913	$2,150	$2.35	14d	1	0.59mi
5025 Cedar Springs Dr #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$1,590	$1.32	14d	1	0.61mi
5025 Cedar Springs Dr #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	1202	$3,510	$2.92	23d	1	0.61mi
4910 Deerfield Way #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$4,800	$4.00	21d	1	0.64mi
4910 Deerfield Way Unit A-203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1388	$5,500	$3.96	14d	1	0.64mi
4710 Saint Croix Ln #217 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1045	$2,200	$2.11	23d	1	0.65mi
4635 Saint Croix Ln #1214 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	913	$1,900	$2.08	14d	1	0.65mi
4620 Saint Croix Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	982	$1,800	$1.83	14d	2	0.66mi
4720 Saint Croix Ln #137 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	23d	1	0.68mi
4610 Saint Croix Ln #1027 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1196	$4,000	$3.34	23d	1	0.68mi
1882 Tarpon Bay Dr S Unit 2 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1332	$2,200	$1.65	14d	1	0.71mi
10805 Queen Anne Ln #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1252	$4,800	$3.83	23d	1	0.97mi
5455 Worthington Ln #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$5,000	$4.16	23d	1	0.97mi
5455 Worthington Ln #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1427	$3,900	$2.73	23d	1	0.97mi
5693 Heron Ln #502 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1490	$6,800	$4.56	23d	1	0.99mi
2790 Cypress Trace Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1537	$5,000	$3.25	23d	2	1.02mi
6544 Huntington Lakes Cir Unit 9-204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1382	$4,250	$3.08	23d	1	1.03mi
2408 Millcreek Ln #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1207	$2,200	$1.82	23d	1	1.06mi
6655 Huntington Lakes Cir #204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1315	$3,500	$2.66	23d	1	1.07mi
2740 Cypress Trace Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1493	$3,488	$2.34	23d	3	1.09mi
2730 Cypress Trace Cir Unit 1 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$5,500	$4.46	23d	1	1.12mi
2730 Cypress Trace Cir Unit 2836S Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$5,000	$4.19	23d	1	1.12mi
2730 Cypress Trace Cir Unit 2836A Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$2,000	$1.68	23d	1	1.12mi
2835 Cypress Trace Cir Unit 1049710P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$4,110	$3.29	14d	1	1.12mi
2820 Cypress Trace Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1254	$3,748	$2.99	23d	3	1.13mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $472 · $5,664/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $359,900 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $359,900 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $359,900 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $359,900 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $359,900 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $359,900 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $359,900 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $359,900 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $359,900 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $359,900 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $359,900 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $359,900 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $359,900 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $359,900 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-03-12
    listed $359,900 Active
16. 2021-09-07
    soldstatus $330,000
17. 2021-08-19
    soldstatus $330,000 Sold 1010-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

    C2892 - Bask in the longest Western lake views available in Livingston Lakes. This second floor, end-unit allows brilliant natural light to flow into an open great room space. Kitchen is adorned with hardwood cabinets, granite counters and 2016 appliances. Hurricane proof windows and sliders offer the peace of mind to lock and leave the unit. Livingston Lakes offers a resort style pool with lap lanes. Outdoor seating abounds around a fireplace and cabanas. The covered grilling stations at the amenity are perfect for outdoor dining or gatherings. Expansive Clubhouse featuring a common room and kitchen can be used or reserved for larger gatherings upon request. On site fitness center boasts treadmills, elliptical, dumbbells, Smith machine and various other equipment. Livingston Lakes is pet friendly upon approval of Condo board. North Collier Regional Park and Golisano Children's Museum are just South of community. Seed to Table is a very short distance and walk-able from Livingston Lakes as well.

18. 2021-07-07
    status Pending 1010-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

    C2892 - Bask in the longest Western lake views available in Livingston Lakes. This second floor, end-unit allows brilliant natural light to flow into an open great room space. Kitchen is adorned with hardwood cabinets, granite counters and 2016 appliances. Hurricane proof windows and sliders offer the peace of mind to lock and leave the unit. Livingston Lakes offers a resort style pool with lap lanes. Outdoor seating abounds around a fireplace and cabanas. The covered grilling stations at the amenity are perfect for outdoor dining or gatherings. Expansive Clubhouse featuring a common room and kitchen can be used or reserved for larger gatherings upon request. On site fitness center boasts treadmills, elliptical, dumbbells, Smith machine and various other equipment. Livingston Lakes is pet friendly upon approval of Condo board. North Collier Regional Park and Golisano Children's Museum are just South of community. Seed to Table is a very short distance and walk-able from Livingston Lakes as well.

19. 2021-07-02
    listed $325,000 Active 1010-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

    C2892 - Bask in the longest Western lake views available in Livingston Lakes. This second floor, end-unit allows brilliant natural light to flow into an open great room space. Kitchen is adorned with hardwood cabinets, granite counters and 2016 appliances. Hurricane proof windows and sliders offer the peace of mind to lock and leave the unit. Livingston Lakes offers a resort style pool with lap lanes. Outdoor seating abounds around a fireplace and cabanas. The covered grilling stations at the amenity are perfect for outdoor dining or gatherings. Expansive Clubhouse featuring a common room and kitchen can be used or reserved for larger gatherings upon request. On site fitness center boasts treadmills, elliptical, dumbbells, Smith machine and various other equipment. Livingston Lakes is pet friendly upon approval of Condo board. North Collier Regional Park and Golisano Children's Museum are just South of community. Seed to Table is a very short distance and walk-able from Livingston Lakes as well.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,316 · $276/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,316 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,160
• − Property taxes: −$3,316
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,592
• − Management: −$3,592
• − HOA: −$5,664
• − Depreciation: −$10,470
• Taxable loss: −$3,689
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$885
• After-tax cash flow: $2,933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pelican Marsh

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,273
• Household income: $92,259
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1712.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.29%
• Current HPI: 279.357
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+10.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $359,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2021-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $330,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-19 Sold (MLS) $330,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2021-07-07 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2021-07-02 Listed $325,000 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+22.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,316 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.