4407 Oats St · Houston, TX 77020

$234,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,390 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 2022 5,148 sqft lot $169/sqft · 16% below area Est $279k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 4407 Oats a newly updated residence nestled in the heart of Houston, TX 77020. This inviting home features a spacious layout with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms perfect for those wanting easy access to all Houston has to offer. Metal fence with brand new motorized gate with remote! Paved parking area for up to 3 vehicles. Located in a rapidly developing neighborhood, this home is just minutes away from local parks, shopping, and dining options. Enjoy easy access to major highways, making your commute a breeze. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to own this lovely home in a thriving community. Schedule your private tour today!

Key facts

• 5,148 sq ft lot
• Built 2022
• Listed 92 days

Tags

• NEWLY UPDATED RESIDENCE
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS
• MINUTES AWAY FROM LOCAL PARKS
• SHOPPING AND DINING OPTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-227 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,975/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 969% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $235k implies a 944% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,831 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.15%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,817
• List price: $234,999
• Delta: -15.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2004 Worms St	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-3%)	1mo	$259,000	$193	73
5001 Farmer St	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (-2%)	2mo	$299,000	$220	71
1811 Pannell St Unit C	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,381 (-1%)	7mo	$275,000	$199	70
4714 Buck St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,345 (-3%)	7mo	$289,900	$216	60
4809 Nichols St	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,581 (+14%)	9mo	$285,000	$180	51
2405 Pannell St	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,230 (-12%)	3mo	$99,500	$81	50
4803 Farmer St	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-14%)	7mo	$140,000	$117	47
4034 Wylie St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,246 (-10%)	6mo	$194,000	$156	46
4611 Buck St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,541 (+11%)	8mo	$205,000	$133	44
4404 Bond St	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,529 (+10%)	3mo	$295,000	$193	44
5214 Hershe St	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,207 (-13%)	7mo	$164,000	$136	44
4705 Coke St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,212 (-13%)	9mo	$245,000	$202	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $116,190
• Equity at exit: $211,706

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.46×
• Total profit: $359,270
• Equity at exit: $456,551

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77020

• Home prices YoY: 29.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,975 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$457 /mo · $5,487/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,263

Max offer price $194,831

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-94	-5% $-161	+0% $-227	+5% $-294	+10% $-360
Rent	-10% $-383	-5% $-305	+0% $-227	+5% $-149	+10% $-71
Rate	-1.0pp $-109	-0.5pp $-168	base $-227	+0.5pp $-288	+1.0pp $-350

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	45d	1	0.16mi
4712 Rawley St Unit a Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,070	$1.38	22d	1	0.23mi
4712 Rawley St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1501	$2,045	$1.36	22d	1	0.23mi
3730 Lyons Ave Unit 216 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	45d	1	0.40mi
1513 Cage St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,550	$1.06	45d	1	0.60mi
4509 Courtney St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1456	$1,150	$0.79	23d	1	0.63mi
3300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	45d	1	0.68mi
5605 Mulvey St Unit 1019610P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1410	$4,376	$3.10	0d	1	0.71mi
2105 Sam Wilson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1416	$6,750	$4.77	45d	1	0.71mi
1307 Bayou St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1814	$2,400	$1.32	9d	1	0.80mi
1303 Bayou St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1869	$3,200	$1.71	45d	1	0.80mi
2704 Sam Wilson St Unit 1391353P Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1001	$2,082	$2.08	0d	1	0.93mi
308 Grove St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1701	$2,350	$1.38	9d	1	1.05mi
3503 Wyrick St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1746	$2,850	$1.63	45d	1	1.05mi
1023 Hahlo St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1434	$1,775	$1.24	6d	1	1.14mi
1714 Mary St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	45d	1	1.23mi
800 Middle St Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,593	$1.59	6d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $234,999 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $234,999 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $234,999 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,999 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,999 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,999 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,999 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,999 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,999 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,999 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,999 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,999 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,999 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-05-18
    price $239,999 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    Welcome to 4407 Oats a newly updated residence nestled in the heart of Houston, TX 77020. This inviting home features a spacious layout with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms perfect for those wanting easy access to all Houston has to offer. Metal fence with brand new motorized gate with remote! Paved parking area for up to 3 vehicles. Located in a rapidly developing neighborhood, this home is just minutes away from local parks, shopping, and dining options. Enjoy easy access to major highways, making your commute a breeze. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to own this lovely home in a thriving community. Schedule your private tour today!

15. 2026-05-13
    price $244,900 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    Welcome to 4407 Oats a newly updated residence nestled in the heart of Houston, TX 77020. This inviting home features a spacious layout with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms perfect for those wanting easy access to all Houston has to offer. Metal fence with brand new motorized gate with remote! Paved parking area for up to 3 vehicles. Located in a rapidly developing neighborhood, this home is just minutes away from local parks, shopping, and dining options. Enjoy easy access to major highways, making your commute a breeze. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to own this lovely home in a thriving community. Schedule your private tour today!

16. 2026-04-14
    price $254,000 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    Welcome to 4407 Oats a newly updated residence nestled in the heart of Houston, TX 77020. This inviting home features a spacious layout with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms perfect for those wanting easy access to all Houston has to offer. Metal fence with brand new motorized gate with remote! Paved parking area for up to 3 vehicles. Located in a rapidly developing neighborhood, this home is just minutes away from local parks, shopping, and dining options. Enjoy easy access to major highways, making your commute a breeze. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to own this lovely home in a thriving community. Schedule your private tour today!

17. 2026-04-06
    price $259,000 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    Welcome to 4407 Oats a newly updated residence nestled in the heart of Houston, TX 77020. This inviting home features a spacious layout with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms perfect for those wanting easy access to all Houston has to offer. Metal fence with brand new motorized gate with remote! Paved parking area for up to 3 vehicles. Located in a rapidly developing neighborhood, this home is just minutes away from local parks, shopping, and dining options. Enjoy easy access to major highways, making your commute a breeze. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to own this lovely home in a thriving community. Schedule your private tour today!

18. 2026-03-20
    listed $269,000 Active 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    Welcome to 4407 Oats a newly updated residence nestled in the heart of Houston, TX 77020. This inviting home features a spacious layout with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms perfect for those wanting easy access to all Houston has to offer. Metal fence with brand new motorized gate with remote! Paved parking area for up to 3 vehicles. Located in a rapidly developing neighborhood, this home is just minutes away from local parks, shopping, and dining options. Enjoy easy access to major highways, making your commute a breeze. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to own this lovely home in a thriving community. Schedule your private tour today!

19. 2026-01-01
    historical
20. 2025-04-01
    price $269,999
21. 2025-04-01
    historical $1,950
22. 2025-02-05
    listed $1,950
23. 2025-02-04
    status Active
24. 2025-01-31
    historical
25. 2025-01-07
    price $249,999
26. 2024-10-30
    listed $269,999 Active
27. 2024-03-04
    historical
28. 2024-02-13
    listed $219,000 Active
29. 2023-12-31
    historical
30. 2023-12-13
    listed $250,000 Active
31. 2023-11-22
    historical
32. 2022-01-18
    soldstatus
33. 2021-10-14
    soldstatus
34. 2021-10-14
    soldstatus
35. 2019-04-18
    soldstatus $22,500
36. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,487 · $457/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,487 · $457/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,698
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$5,487
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,896
• − Management: −$1,896
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$6,755
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,621
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,107/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,686
• Household income: $50,119
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 969.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Black 24% Two or more races 22% White 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 59% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.64%
• Current HPI: 246.5578
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+966.7% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $239,999 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $244,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $254,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $259,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $269,999 HARMLS
• 2025-04-01 Rental Removed $1,950 HARMLS
• 2025-02-05 Listed for Rent $1,950 HARMLS
• 2025-02-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-01-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-07 Price Changed $249,999 HARMLS
• 2024-10-30 Listed $269,999 HARMLS
• 2024-03-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-02-13 Listed $219,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-12-13 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-22 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2022-01-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-10-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-10-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $22,500 Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,487 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.