1909 Coral Rd · Pelican Bay, TX 76020

$189,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2016 0.34 ac lot Est $157k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cul de sac lot with over a third of an acre! 2016 mobile home plus room for an additional mobile home or RV. RV hook ups in place, plus separate driveway. Privacy fenced back yard with 2 storage buildings and a smokehouse. Big screened in porch overlooking the backyard. Split bedroom arrangement. Large master suite with walk in closet. Master bath has large garden tub, double sinks, and separate shower. Separate utility room too. Open floor plan with breakfast area. Kitchen island doubles as a breakfast bar. Wood look flooring in the living kitchen area. Lake access including dock and boat ramp in community.

Key facts

• Two lots
• Outdoor space
• Lake access

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS
• TWO LOTS
• NO HOA
• OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt parking
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Mobile home; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 2016
• Exterior features: Lot less than 0.5 acre; Subdivision: Pelican Bay Tenth Filing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Eat-in kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom on main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; One living area; One dining area; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the main level; Washer and dryer excluded from sale

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $76 ($914/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#917 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Azle ISD (suburban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty El (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 466 students, 64% FRL); Santo Forte J H (math 28% / reading 41%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 514 students, 55% FRL); Azle H S (math 41% / reading 50%, grade D-, #634 of 1,632 statewide, top 39%, 2,054 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 594 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,832 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.72%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $156,672
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1821 Gale Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+6%)	1mo	$183,000	$150	70
1704 Coral Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,178 (+2%)	15mo	$180,950	$154	62
1413 Whippoorwill Way	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,144 (-1%)	8mo	$115,000	$101	56
1405 Cardinal Ter	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+6%)	6mo	$125,000	$103	54
1521 Lark Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+6%)	2mo	$185,000	$152	51
1413 Dawn Dr N	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+6%)	3mo	$150,000	$123	50
1609 Quail Run	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (0%)	15mo	$174,900	$152	47
1416 Quail Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,138 (-1%)	23mo	$155,000	$136	40
1404 Dawn Dr N	0.67mi	2/1.5	980 (-15%)	7mo	$70,000	$71	36
1505 Mockingbird Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (+7%)	14mo	$159,500	$129	34
1616 Quail Run	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,064 (-8%)	24mo	$185,000	$174	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-27,072
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-21,989
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76020

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 594
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,578 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,149/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,482

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $184	-5% $130	+0% $76	+5% $22	+10% $-31
Rent	-10% $-49	-5% $14	+0% $76	+5% $139	+10% $201
Rate	-1.0pp $172	-0.5pp $124	base $76	+0.5pp $27	+1.0pp $-23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1844 Sheila Dr Azle, TX	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,645	$1.25	1d	1	0.08mi
1920 Reef Ct Azle, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,449	$1.33	45d	1	0.12mi
1408 Yachtclub Dr Azle, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$2,000	$1.54	14d	1	0.35mi
1324 White Sand Dr Azle, TX	3.0	2.0	1149	$1,650	$1.44	7d	1	0.36mi
11124 Liberty School Rd Unit 24B Azle, TX	2.0	2.0	700	$999	$1.43	24d	1	0.37mi
11128 Liberty School Rd Unit 28A Azle, TX	2.0	2.0	700	$1,050	$1.50	26d	1	0.38mi
1300 White Sand Dr Unit 1304 Azle, TX	3.0	2.0	1149	$1,695	$1.48	45d	1	0.40mi
1304 White Sand Dr Azle, TX	3.0	2.0	1149	$1,695	$1.48	45d	1	0.41mi
1329 Fox Hollow Ct Azle, TX	2.0	1.0	924	$900	$0.97	8d	1	0.72mi
1620 Mockingbird Ln Azle, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,499	$1.38	22d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,900 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $189,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,149 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,475 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,326/yr (+$194/mo · 202.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$1,149
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,515
• − Management: −$1,515
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$2,350
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$564
• After-tax cash flow: $1,478/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Azle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809200
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,473
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4900
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pelican Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #917
• US rank: #16376

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pelican Bay, TX
• County: Parker County · 144,797 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,602
• Household income: $87,298
• Rent vs Own: 22.3% rent · 77.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 433.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.72%
• Current HPI: 287.155
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.31%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+19.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $189,900 NTREIS
• 2024-03-08 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2024-02-16 Pending — NTREIS
• 2024-02-02 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2024-01-22 Listed $159,000 NTREIS
• 2010-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-04-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,149 · +200.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.