7815 Bel Fiore Dr · Richmond, TX 77406

$289,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,807 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 254 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 5,458 sqft lot $160/sqft · 9% below area Est $318k · 9% under $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous, Immaculate and Charming 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home with modern features and a spacious layout for family gatherings and entertaining! The Gaven Floorplan is an open-concept lovely home which features a chef's kitchen with stainless steel appliances, Silestone countertops and beautiful flooring. An abundance of natural light flows throughout the home from opening the cordless blinds. Enjoy the private backyard with a covered patio which is perfect for relaxing or entertaining guests. Situated in desirable Sorrento community with easy access to amenities, schools, shops and dining. Don't miss out on the opportunity to own this beautiful home! Make your appointment now!

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Covered patio
• Chef's kitchen

Tags

• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SILESTONE COUNTERTOPS
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO
• EASY ACCESS TO AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-453 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (27.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.6% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#363 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1947 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 254 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.

Recommended offer $209,550 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 254 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.70%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,774
• List price: $289,500
• Delta: -8.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8014 Tropea Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,807 (0%)	1mo	$275,000	$152	90
1319 Isola Bella Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-2%)	4mo	$339,990	$191	87
8319 Seasonal Solstice Trl	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (-6%)	2mo	$344,990	$203	58
110 Candlelight Ridge Ct	0.56mi	4/3.0	1,927 (+7%)	2mo	$374,990	$195	58
323 Twilight Meadow Way	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,743 (-4%)	4mo	$349,900	$201	56
311 Twilight Meadow Way	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,722 (-5%)	2mo	$374,900	$218	55
126 Twilight Meadow Way	0.62mi	4/3.0	1,927 (+7%)	3mo	$374,990	$195	54
115 Twilight Meadow Way	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (-6%)	3mo	$349,990	$206	54
7922 Marconi Corsco Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (-12%)	5mo	$304,990	$191	52
127 Shining Succulent Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (-6%)	3mo	$324,990	$191	49
114 Mercury Sky Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,549 (-14%)	3mo	$319,990	$207	45
119 Twilight Meadow Way	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,549 (-14%)	0mo	$324,990	$210	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-83,032
• Equity at exit: $43,165

10-year hold

• IRR: -67.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.70×
• Total profit: $-137,542
• Equity at exit: $25,031

Cash invested: $81,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 31 active · 24 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.8 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $364,900 ($200/sqft)
• Median days on market: 206 d
• This list price: 3% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -11.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77406

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1947
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,611 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,518
• Tax from tax record: −$801 /mo · $9,614/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $-453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,184

Max offer price $209,550

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-289	-5% $-371	+0% $-453	+5% $-535	+10% $-616
Rent	-10% $-659	-5% $-556	+0% $-453	+5% $-349	+10% $-246
Rate	-1.0pp $-307	-0.5pp $-379	base $-453	+0.5pp $-528	+1.0pp $-604

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,375
• Closing costs: $8,685
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1631 Battisti Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	3.0	2322	$2,950	$1.27	5d	1	0.46mi
114 Mercury Sky Rd Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$2,350	$1.47	43d	1	0.53mi
114 Mercury Sky Rd Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$2,350	$1.47	3d	1	0.53mi
8051 Marchese Dr Unit 8051 Richmond, TX	5.0	3.5	2500	$2,750	$1.10	37d	1	0.57mi
8051 Marchese Dr Unit 8051 Richmond, TX	5.0	3.5	2500	$2,750	$1.10	52d	1	0.57mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $289,500 Active 254 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $289,500 Active 253 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $289,500 Active 252 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $289,500 Active 251 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $289,500 Active 250 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $289,500 Active 248 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $289,500 Active 247 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $289,500 Active 246 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $289,500 Active 245 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $289,500 Active 244 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $289,500 Active 243 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $289,500 Active 242 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $289,500 Active 241 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $289,500 Active 240 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $289,500 Active 239 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $289,500 Active 238 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $289,500 Active 237 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $289,500 Active 236 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $289,500 Active 235 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $289,500 Active 234 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $289,500 Active 233 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $289,500 Active 232 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $289,500 Active 231 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $289,500 Active 230 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $289,500 Active 229 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $289,500 Active 228 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $289,500 Active 227 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $289,500 Active 226 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $289,500 Active 225 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $289,500 Active 224 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $289,500 Active 223 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $289,500 Active 222 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $289,500 Active 221 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $289,500 Active 220 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $289,500 Active 219 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $289,500 Active 218 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    price $289,500 Active 217 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $298,000 Active 217 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $298,000 Active 216 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $298,000 Active 215 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $298,000 Active 214 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $298,000 Active 213 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $298,000 Active 212 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $298,000 Active 211 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $298,000 Active 210 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $298,000 Active 209 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $298,000 Active 208 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $298,000 Active 207 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $298,000 Active 206 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $298,000 Active 205 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,614 · $801/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,614 · $801/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,328
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,217
• − Property taxes: −$9,614
• − Insurance: −$1,448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,506
• − Management: −$2,506
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$8,422
• Taxable loss: −$10,285
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,468
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,963/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,035–$27,105 screening

This home is in excellent condition with modern features and a spacious layout. It's move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that would significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace blinds — Improves natural light and aesthetics ↑
• Both Upgrade flooring — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 66/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Huggins El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 High Foster H S B TX #141/1,632 Nat'l #2,354/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Richmond

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #7780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 158,237
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,918
• Household income: $141,869
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 14% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.18%
• Current HPI: 222.9525
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $323,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-30 Listed $313,900 HARMLS