6900 Main Bayview Rd · Southold, NY 11971

$600,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 1955 Good condition 0.48 ac lot Est $808k · 26% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Ranch Style Home. This Home Features 2 Bedrooms, Full Bath, Dining Area, Eat In Kitchen & 2 Car Garage. Centrally Located To All. Don't Miss This Opportunity!

Key facts

• Eat in kitchen
• Centrally located
• Dining area

Tags

• RANCH STYLE HOME
• DINING AREA
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• CENTRALLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking; Driveway; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Sewer: Other; Utilities: See remarks
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Back yard; Front yard; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Includes a first-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Oil heating; No central air
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Eat-in kitchen; Soaking tub; Deck; Full basement; Scuttle attic; One level (single-story)
• Laundry & utility: No appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $600k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13k ($157k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($22k rent vs $600k).
• Cap rate 32.6% vs local median 6.9% in Southold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Southold Union Free School District (town): math 46% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #298 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Southold Elementary School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 317 students, 35% FRL); Southold Junior-Senior High School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #946 of 1,100 statewide, top 88%, 380 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 17% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $168k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $600,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 93.90%
• DSCR: 5.18
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $807,600
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3700 Minnehaha Blvd	0.34mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,144 (-5%)	4mo	$1,025,000	$896	66
900 Cedar Dr	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (-8%)	7mo	$650,000	$591	65
1000 Gin Ln	0.70mi	2/1.0	1,189 (-1%)	2mo	$718,000	$604	64
1040 Nakomis Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (-8%)	8mo	$740,000	$673	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 94.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.39×
• Total profit: $736,720
• Equity at exit: $89,462

10-year hold

• IRR: 97.1%
• Equity multiple: 11.21×
• Total profit: $1,715,875
• Equity at exit: $51,877

Cash invested: $168,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11971

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $21,532 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax from tax record: −$467 /mo · $5,610/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,522
• Net cashflow: $13,091

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,961

Max offer price $600,000

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $150,000
• Closing costs: $18,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1355 Watersedge Way Southold, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$19,500	$16.25	24d	1	0.76mi
2662 Paradise Shores Rd Southold, NY	3.0	1.5	1300	$25,000	$19.23	24d	1	1.35mi
2845 Hobart Rd Southold, NY	3.0	2.0	1300	$22,000	$16.92	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $600,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $600,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $600,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $600,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $600,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $600,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $600,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $600,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $600,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 160-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $600,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,610 · $467/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,875 · $656/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,265/yr (+$189/mo · 40.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $258,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,609
• − Property taxes: −$5,610
• − Insurance: −$3,666
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$20,671
• − Management: −$20,671
• − Depreciation: −$17,455
• Taxable income: $156,703
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$37,609
• After-tax cash flow: $119,481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This ranch-style home is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed to modernize the kitchen and bathroom, significantly enhancing its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Aesthetic update needed.
• Minor Bathtub and fixtures — Update needed for functionality and style.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Kitchen renovation — Modernizing the kitchen can significantly increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Bathtub replacement — Upgrading the bathroom can enhance both resale and rental appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Aesthetic update needed.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathtub and fixtures · Update needed for functionality and style.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Kitchen renovation — Modernizing the kitchen can significantly increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Bathtub replacement — Upgrading the bathroom can enhance both resale and rental appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southold Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627620
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $78,622
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2269
• State rank: #298 of 590 in NY

Livability — Southold

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #10545

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southold, NY
• City population: 6,507
• Population (ZIP): 6,507

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.14%
• Current HPI: 396.5481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-7.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $600,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-09 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-09 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-11 Listed $549,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-27 Price Changed $629,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-19 Listed $649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,610 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.