33 Sherwood Forest Drive Frst SE · Walthourville, GA 31301

$139,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1999 0.39 ac lot $78/sqft · 35% below area Est $215k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFUL 3 BR HOME W/ 2 MASTER BR. WALK IN CLOSETS IN ALL ROOMS & HUGE FAMILY RM W/ FIREPLACE. KITCHEN HAS EAT IN AREA AND ALL STANDARD APPLIANCES. SCREENED IN PORCH W/ COVERED CARPORT. CASH ONLY!!

Key facts

• New paint
• Covered back porch
• 0.39 acre lot

Tags

• NEW PAINT
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• DETACHED CARPORT/SHOP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 covered space); Detached parking; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected / electric on property
• Home design: Manufactured house; Mobile home; Entry on crawl space
• Construction: Vinyl siding, frame and wood siding exterior; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a manufactured/mobile home
• Exterior features: Storm door(s); Chain link fence (partial)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (see remarks); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $721 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 5.4% in Walthourville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#255 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smiley Elementary School (1,258 students, 67% FRL); Long County Middle School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 945 students, 69% FRL); Long County High School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,209 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $218 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $140k implies a 419% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,799 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.08%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $214,778
• List price: $139,999
• Delta: -34.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
110 Copperhead Rd SE	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,792 (0%)	19mo	$180,000	$100	53
292 Copperhead Rd	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,664 (-7%)	19mo	$185,500	$111	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $42,817
• Equity at exit: $41,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.95×
• Total profit: $115,784
• Equity at exit: $51,056

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31301

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,988 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $680/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $721

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,075

Max offer price $139,999

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43 Sandy Run Rd SE Allenhurst, GA	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	44d	1	0.86mi
559 McCumber Dr Allenhurst, GA	3.0	2.0	1936	$1,800	$0.93	44d	1	1.49mi
119 Belleau Woods Cir Unit 27 Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1444	$2,075	$1.44	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,999 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,999 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,999 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,999 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,999 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,999 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,999 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,999 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,999 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,999 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,999 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,999 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,999 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,999 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,999 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,999 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,999 Active 22 DOM
18. 2026-05-01
    listed $139,999 Active 676-char remark
19. 2013-10-04
    soldstatus $27,000 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL 3 BR HOME W/ 2 MASTER BR. WALK IN CLOSETS IN ALL ROOMS & HUGE FAMILY RM W/ FIREPLACE. KITCHEN HAS EAT IN AREA AND ALL STANDARD APPLIANCES. SCREENED IN PORCH W/ COVERED CARPORT. CASH ONLY!!

20. 2012-10-04
    soldstatus $27,000

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL 3 BR HOME W/ MASTER BR. WALK IN CLOSETS IN ALL ROOMS & HUGE FAMILY RM W/ FIREPLACE. KITCHEN HAS EAT IN AREA AND ALL STANDARD APPLIANCES, SCREENED IN PORCH. CASH ONLY!!!

21. 2012-03-12
    listed $27,000 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL 3 BR HOME W/ 2 MASTER BR. WALK IN CLOSETS IN ALL ROOMS & HUGE FAMILY RM W/ FIREPLACE. KITCHEN HAS EAT IN AREA AND ALL STANDARD APPLIANCES. SCREENED IN PORCH W/ COVERED CARPORT. CASH ONLY!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $680 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,288 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$608/yr (+$51/mo · 89.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$680
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,908
• − Management: −$1,908
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $6,741
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,618
• After-tax cash flow: $7,036/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

Livability — Walthourville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #14108

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 58,565 people
• City population: 4,933
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 4,933
• Household income: $65,417
• Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 121.0

Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 31% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.16%
• Current HPI: 187.7716
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+418.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $139,999 HABR
• 2013-10-04 Sold (MLS) $27,000 Hive MLS
• 2012-10-04 Sold (MLS) $27,000 GAMLS
• 2012-03-12 Listed $27,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $680 · -25.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.