Sealine Plan · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$299,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,448 sqft · SingleFamily · 280 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

A quaint café and generous gathering room welcome you to Sealine. This single-story attached villa boasts a private master sanctuary and second bedroom suite ideal for overnight guests. Flex space is perfect for a den, home office, or hobby space.

Key facts

• Flex space
• Second bedroom suite
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• PRIVATE MASTER SANCTUARY
• SECOND BEDROOM SUITE
• FLEX SPACE

🏗️ New construction. The $299,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $406,210.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $264k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.9% in Ave Maria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Estates Elementary School (math 70% / reading 67%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 862 students, 53% FRL); Corkscrew Middle School (math 68% / reading 59%, grade B+, #109 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 958 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 117d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,425/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 280 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $263,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 280 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.07%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $406,210
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: -26.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4671 Espiritu Way	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,448 (0%)	3mo	$320,000	$221	96
3983 Giesboro Ln	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,448 (0%)	0mo	$316,635	$219	68
4260 Nevada St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,558 (+8%)	12mo	$365,000	$234	66
5060 Arancia Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,513 (+4%)	6mo	$384,500	$254	55
4540 Lamaida Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,554 (+7%)	15mo	$375,000	$241	54
4344 Annapolis Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,662 (+15%)	10mo	$393,390	$237	40
4324 Annapolis Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,662 (+15%)	10mo	$400,000	$241	40
4969 Seton St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,588 (+10%)	12mo	$450,000	$283	38
4396 Annapolis Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,662 (+15%)	17mo	$420,000	$253	34
4418 Annapolis Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,662 (+15%)	19mo	$415,000	$250	30
4402 Hudson Way	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,662 (+15%)	20mo	$430,344	$259	29
4515 Annapolis Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,662 (+15%)	14mo	$420,000	$253	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-38,062
• Equity at exit: $97,115

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-9,796
• Equity at exit: $101,179

Cash invested: $113,739 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 20 active · 10 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.3 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $368,994 ($235/sqft)
• Median days on market: 235 d
• This list price: 5% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +19.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,425 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,130
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$508 /mo · $6,093/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$719
• Net cashflow: $-102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,553

Max offer price $391,505

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $179	-5% $39	+0% $-102	+5% $-242	+10% $-382
Rent	-10% $-372	-5% $-237	+0% $-102	+5% $34	+10% $169
Rate	-1.0pp $103	-0.5pp $2	base $-102	+0.5pp $-207	+1.0pp $-314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,553
• Closing costs: $12,186
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5020 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1867	$2,400	$1.29	3d	1	0.55mi
5020 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1867	$2,400	$1.29	3d	1	0.55mi
5032 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,595	$1.70	109d	1	0.57mi
5072 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1705	$3,150	$1.85	6d	1	0.63mi
5068 Annunciation Cir #4201 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1266	$3,400	$2.69	119d	1	0.75mi
5068 Annunciation Cir #4210 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	1635	$2,750	$1.68	6d	1	0.75mi
5068 Annunciation Cir #4211 Ave Maria, FL	1.0	2.0	1100	$2,700	$2.45	119d	1	0.75mi
5076 Annunciation Cir #2206 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1206	$3,100	$2.57	119d	1	0.80mi
5076 Annunciation Cir #2305 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1166	$2,800	$2.40	119d	1	0.80mi
5076 Annunciation Cir #2206 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1206	$3,100	$2.57	6d	1	0.80mi
5080 Annunciation Cir #1306 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$3,900	$2.29	6d	1	0.85mi
4925 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1525	$4,000	$2.62	119d	1	0.85mi
6015 Ellerston #911 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$2,800	$1.61	6d	1	0.86mi
5069 Penella Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1717	$2,650	$1.54	6d	1	1.01mi
5187 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,700	$1.61	116d	1	1.14mi
5376 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$6,850	$3.70	116d	1	1.22mi
5522 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,995	$2.16	119d	1	1.26mi
5615 Newcastle Ct #5212 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$6,295	$3.62	6d	1	1.34mi
5538 Useppa Dr Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$10,995	$5.94	119d	1	1.35mi
5661 Melbourne Ct #8011 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	107d	1	1.36mi
5661 Melbourne Ct Unit 8012 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$2,495	$1.43	9d	1	1.36mi
5435 Pikewood Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,695	$2.00	116d	1	1.38mi
5667 Melbourne Ct #7812 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$6,250	$3.59	107d	1	1.38mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1239	$2,495	$2.01	119d	1	1.40mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$4,700	$3.61	6d	1	1.40mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir #4125 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,995	$1.78	6d	1	1.41mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir Unit 4143 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$5,795	$5.17	119d	1	1.41mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir Unit 4118 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$4,700	$3.61	119d	1	1.41mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir #4135 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,195	$1.96	119d	1	1.41mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir #4137 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,795	$5.02	116d	1	1.41mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir #4137 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,795	$5.02	6d	1	1.41mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2815 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,700	$1.93	119d	1	1.41mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2824 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$2,400	$1.76	6d	1	1.41mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2825 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$6,295	$4.65	119d	1	1.41mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,995	$2.21	119d	1	1.41mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2822 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$5,795	$4.28	6d	1	1.41mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2822 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$5,795	$4.28	119d	1	1.41mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2826 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$6,495	$4.14	119d	1	1.41mi
5453 Pikewood Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$7,995	$4.32	6d	1	1.41mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir #3026 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$2,295	$1.46	6d	1	1.42mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,448 square feet
• Financial info: List price $299,990

Exterior

• Home design: Sealine plan (new construction plan)Single-family residence
• Construction: Built as part of 2025–2026 new construction inventory
• Exterior features: Located in Ave Maria community

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $299,990 Active 280 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $299,990 Active 279 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $299,990 Active 277 DOM
4. 2026-09-18
   days on market $299,990 Active 275 DOM
5. 2026-09-17
   days on market $299,990 Active 274 DOM
6. 2026-09-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 273 DOM
7. 2026-09-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 272 DOM
8. 2026-09-14
   days on market $299,990 Active 271 DOM
9. 2026-09-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 270 DOM
10. 2026-09-12
    days on market $299,990 Active 269 DOM
11. 2026-09-11
    days on market $299,990 Active 268 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $299,990 Active 262 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $299,990 Active 261 DOM
14. 2026-09-03
    days on market $299,990 Active 260 DOM
15. 2026-08-30
    days on market $299,990 Active 256 DOM
16. 2026-08-29
    days on market $299,990 Active 255 DOM
17. 2026-08-28
    days on market $299,990 Active 254 DOM
18. 2026-08-27
    days on market $299,990 Active 253 DOM
19. 2026-08-26
    days on market $299,990 Active 252 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $299,990 Active 251 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $299,990 Active 250 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $299,990 Active 249 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $299,990 Active 248 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $299,990 Active 247 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $299,990 Active 246 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $299,990 Active 245 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $299,990 Active 244 DOM
28. 2026-08-16
    days on market $299,990 Active 242 DOM
29. 2026-08-15
    days on market $299,990 Active 241 DOM
30. 2026-08-13
    days on market $299,990 Active 239 DOM
31. 2026-08-12
    days on market $299,990 Active 238 DOM
32. 2026-08-11
    days on market $299,990 Active 237 DOM
33. 2026-08-10
    days on market $299,990 Active 236 DOM
34. 2026-08-09
    days on market $299,990 Active 235 DOM
35. 2026-08-08
    days on market $299,990 Active 234 DOM
36. 2026-08-07
    days on market $299,990 Active 233 DOM
37. 2026-08-06
    days on market $299,990 Active 232 DOM
38. 2026-08-05
    days on market $299,990 Active 231 DOM
39. 2026-08-04
    days on market $299,990 Active 230 DOM
40. 2026-08-03
    days on market $299,990 Active 229 DOM
41. 2026-07-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 226 DOM
42. 2026-07-30
    days on market $299,990 Active 225 DOM
43. 2026-07-29
    days on market $299,990 Active 224 DOM
44. 2026-07-27
    days on market $299,990 Active 222 DOM
45. 2026-07-25
    days on market $299,990 Active 220 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $299,990 Active 219 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $299,990 Active 218 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $299,990 Active 217 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $299,990 Active 216 DOM
50. 2026-07-18
    days on market $299,990 Active 213 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,098
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,754
• − Property taxes: −$6,093
• − Insurance: −$2,031
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,288
• − Management: −$3,288
• − Depreciation: −$11,817
• Taxable loss: −$8,173
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,962
• After-tax cash flow: $742/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,240–$21,720 screening

This single-story attached villa is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It is ready for a new owner or tenant with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Inspect and clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, which is important for rental properties. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Estates Elementary School B+ FL #409/2,144 Nat'l #4,125/41,679 Middle Corkscrew Middle School B+ FL #109/571 Nat'l #1,406/14,009 High Palmetto Ridge High School D- FL #207/667 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 420,858 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,448 square feet
• Financial info: List price $299,990

Exterior

• Home design: Sealine plan (new construction plan)Single-family residence
• Construction: Built as part of 2025–2026 new construction inventory
• Exterior features: Located in Ave Maria community

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area