Acorn Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

$252,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · SingleFamily · 552 Days on market

Excellent condition $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The single-story Acorn plan provides efficiency and charm within the incredible Homestead Estates community! This three-bedroom, two-bathroom plan features an upgraded kitchen, overlooking the dining area and living room so that you never miss a beat. With plenty of windows, the Acorn is a bright and charming home located in the heart of all that Homestead Estates has to offer!

Key facts

• Upgraded kitchen
• 2 parking spots
• Listed 552 days

Tags

• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• HOMESTEAD ESTATES COMMUNITY

🏗️ New construction. The $252,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $310,232.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $253k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-516 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 552 days — a 12% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,758 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 552 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.13%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $310,232
• List price: $252,900
• Delta: -18.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14705 Eagles Claw Way	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,076 (0%)	2mo	$255,900	$238	75
14604 Wahlbergs Way	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,076 (0%)	3mo	$249,900	$232	74
18420 Stellers Sea St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,076 (0%)	2mo	$252,900	$235	73
18404 Stellers Sea St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,076 (0%)	4mo	$277,900	$258	70
18308 Stellers Sea St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,076 (0%)	3mo	$229,900	$214	70
117 Summer Dr	0.69mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,088 (+1%)	2mo	$206,110	$189	57
129 Daylily Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,153 (+7%)	5mo	$199,990	$173	49
135 Summer Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,191 (+11%)	2mo	$214,840	$180	47
143 Daylily Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,191 (+11%)	2mo	$209,990	$176	47
104 Summer Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+14%)	1mo	$241,770	$197	43
133 Daylily Dr	0.72mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,159 (+8%)	4mo	$199,990	$173	43
100 Daylily Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+14%)	2mo	$249,180	$203	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $136,409
• Equity at exit: $279,482

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.93×
• Total profit: $428,153
• Equity at exit: $602,713

Cash invested: $86,865 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,098 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,627
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$388 /mo · $4,653/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-516

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,751

Max offer price $235,587

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,558
• Closing costs: $9,307
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	1d	1	0.03mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	43d	1	0.39mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	11d	1	0.45mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	1d	6	0.50mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	3d	1	0.53mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	19d	1	0.55mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	14d	1	0.59mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $252,900 Active 552 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $252,900 Active 551 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $252,900 Active 550 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $252,900 Active 549 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $252,900 Active 547 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $252,900 Active 543 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $252,900 Active 542 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $252,900 Active 541 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $252,900 Active 538 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $252,900 Active 537 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $252,900 Active 536 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $252,900 Active 535 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $252,900 Active 534 DOM
14. 2026-04-02
    price $252,900 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    The single-story Acorn plan provides efficiency and charm within the incredible Homestead Estates community! This three-bedroom, two-bathroom plan features an upgraded kitchen, overlooking the dining area and living room so that you never miss a beat. With plenty of windows, the Acorn is a bright and charming home located in the heart of all that Homestead Estates has to offer!

15. 2026-02-10
    price $249,900 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    The single-story Acorn plan provides efficiency and charm within the incredible Homestead Estates community! This three-bedroom, two-bathroom plan features an upgraded kitchen, overlooking the dining area and living room so that you never miss a beat. With plenty of windows, the Acorn is a bright and charming home located in the heart of all that Homestead Estates has to offer!

16. 2025-10-13
    price $257,900 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    The single-story Acorn plan provides efficiency and charm within the incredible Homestead Estates community! This three-bedroom, two-bathroom plan features an upgraded kitchen, overlooking the dining area and living room so that you never miss a beat. With plenty of windows, the Acorn is a bright and charming home located in the heart of all that Homestead Estates has to offer!

17. 2025-10-04
    price $254,900 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    The single-story Acorn plan provides efficiency and charm within the incredible Homestead Estates community! This three-bedroom, two-bathroom plan features an upgraded kitchen, overlooking the dining area and living room so that you never miss a beat. With plenty of windows, the Acorn is a bright and charming home located in the heart of all that Homestead Estates has to offer!

18. 2025-08-07
    price $274,900 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    The single-story Acorn plan provides efficiency and charm within the incredible Homestead Estates community! This three-bedroom, two-bathroom plan features an upgraded kitchen, overlooking the dining area and living room so that you never miss a beat. With plenty of windows, the Acorn is a bright and charming home located in the heart of all that Homestead Estates has to offer!

19. 2025-07-01
    price $297,900 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    The single-story Acorn plan provides efficiency and charm within the incredible Homestead Estates community! This three-bedroom, two-bathroom plan features an upgraded kitchen, overlooking the dining area and living room so that you never miss a beat. With plenty of windows, the Acorn is a bright and charming home located in the heart of all that Homestead Estates has to offer!

20. 2025-05-08
    price $294,900 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    The single-story Acorn plan provides efficiency and charm within the incredible Homestead Estates community! This three-bedroom, two-bathroom plan features an upgraded kitchen, overlooking the dining area and living room so that you never miss a beat. With plenty of windows, the Acorn is a bright and charming home located in the heart of all that Homestead Estates has to offer!

21. 2025-04-01
    price $302,900 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    The single-story Acorn plan provides efficiency and charm within the incredible Homestead Estates community! This three-bedroom, two-bathroom plan features an upgraded kitchen, overlooking the dining area and living room so that you never miss a beat. With plenty of windows, the Acorn is a bright and charming home located in the heart of all that Homestead Estates has to offer!

22. 2025-01-03
    price $299,900 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    The single-story Acorn plan provides efficiency and charm within the incredible Homestead Estates community! This three-bedroom, two-bathroom plan features an upgraded kitchen, overlooking the dining area and living room so that you never miss a beat. With plenty of windows, the Acorn is a bright and charming home located in the heart of all that Homestead Estates has to offer!

23. 2024-12-13
    listed $296,900 Active 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    The single-story Acorn plan provides efficiency and charm within the incredible Homestead Estates community! This three-bedroom, two-bathroom plan features an upgraded kitchen, overlooking the dining area and living room so that you never miss a beat. With plenty of windows, the Acorn is a bright and charming home located in the heart of all that Homestead Estates has to offer!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,171
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,378
• − Property taxes: −$4,653
• − Insurance: −$1,551
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,014
• − Management: −$2,014
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$9,025
• Taxable loss: −$11,812
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,835
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,355/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story Acorn plan home in Homestead Estates is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and marketability
• Both Add landscaping around the front yard — Enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and marketability ↑
• Both Add landscaping around the front yard — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $252,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $249,900 Zillow
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $257,900 Zillow
• 2025-10-04 Price Changed $254,900 Zillow
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $274,900 Zillow
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $297,900 Zillow
• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $294,900 Zillow
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $302,900 Zillow
• 2025-01-03 Price Changed $299,900 Zillow
• 2024-12-13 Listed $296,900 Zillow