Is Acorn Plan in Elgin, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 3.9% cap rate and $-610/mo modeled cash flow at a $255,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Acorn Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 3.9% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,980/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

D- Composite 38.73

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Appreciation +10.0/10.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +5.9/30.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Livability +3.7/5.0
Rent growth +3.3/5.0
Schools +2.0/10.0
1% rule +1.4/10.0
DSCR +0.3/10.0

$255,900

Acorn Plan · Elgin, TX 78621

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · SingleFamily · 603 Days on market

Excellent condition $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The single-story Acorn plan provides efficiency and charm within the incredible Homestead Estates community! This three-bedroom, two-bathroom plan features an upgraded kitchen, overlooking the dining area and living room so that you never miss a beat. With plenty of windows, the Acorn is a bright and charming home located in the heart of all that Homestead Estates has to offer!

Key facts

Upgraded kitchen
2 parking spots
Listed 602 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $256k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-610 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (13.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (22.6% below list).
Recommended offer: $198k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Neidig El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 599 students, 79% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 978 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 603 days — a 12% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,991 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 603 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.64% ✗
Cap rate: 3.93%
Cash-on-cash: -8.42%
DSCR: 0.63
GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $310,393
List price: $255,900
Delta: -17.56%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14705 Eagles Claw Way	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,076 (0%)	4mo	$255,900	$238	74
14604 Wahlbergs Way	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,076 (0%)	5mo	$249,900	$232	72
18420 Stellers Sea St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,076 (0%)	3mo	$252,900	$235	72
123 Daylily Dr	0.72mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,072 (-0%)	1mo	$199,990	$187	58
108 Shenandoah Trl	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,008 (-6%)	1mo	$180,000	$179	57
117 Summer Dr	0.69mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,088 (+1%)	3mo	$206,110	$189	56
14608 Sage Bloom Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+12%)	0mo	$212,990	$177	52
135 Daylily Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,191 (+11%)	1mo	$211,840	$178	48
135 Summer Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,191 (+11%)	4mo	$214,840	$180	46
143 Daylily Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,191 (+11%)	3mo	$209,990	$176	45
104 Summer Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+14%)	2mo	$241,770	$197	42
100 Daylily Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+14%)	4mo	$249,180	$203	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 18.4%
Equity multiple: 2.50×
Total profit: $130,489
Equity at exit: $279,627

10-year hold

IRR: 17.1%
Equity multiple: 5.78×
Total profit: $415,399
Equity at exit: $603,026

Cash invested: $86,910 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 42 active · 15 under contract
Months of supply: 10.1 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $232,630 ($185/sqft)
Median days on market: 55 d
This list price: 74% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +56.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78621

Home prices YoY: 7.6%
Rents YoY: 3.1%
Active inventory: 978
Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,980 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,628
Tax est. 1.5%: −$388 /mo · $4,656/yr
Insurance: −$129
HOA: −$29
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
Net cashflow: $-610

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,752

Max offer price $222,136

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-395	-5% $-503	+0% $-610	+5% $-717	+10% $-824
Rent	-10% $-766	-5% $-688	+0% $-610	+5% $-532	+10% $-454
Rate	-1.0pp $-454	-0.5pp $-531	base $-610	+0.5pp $-690	+1.0pp $-772

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $77,598
Closing costs: $9,312
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	9d	1	0.03mi
116 Appleberry Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1363	$1,750	$1.28	18d	1	0.24mi
109 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,690	$1.27	21d	1	0.30mi
12201 Token Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,795	$1.20	21d	1	0.31mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	93d	1	0.39mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	60d	1	0.45mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	985	$1,699	$1.72	9d	11	0.50mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	52d	1	0.53mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	68d	1	0.55mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	64d	1	0.59mi
158 Daylily Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,900	$1.34	9d	1	0.74mi
18333 Willow Sage Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,700	$1.31	18d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $255,900 Active 603 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $255,900 Active 601 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $255,900 Active 600 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $255,900 Active 599 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $255,900 Active 598 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $255,900 Active 595 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $255,900 Active 593 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $255,900 Active 592 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $255,900 Active 590 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $255,900 Active 588 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $255,900 Active 587 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $255,900 Active 586 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $255,900 Active 585 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $255,900 Active 584 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $255,900 Active 582 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $255,900 Active 581 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $255,900 Active 580 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $255,900 Active 579 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $255,900 Active 578 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $255,900 Active 577 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $255,900 Active 576 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $255,900 Active 575 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $255,900 Active 574 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $255,900 Active 573 DOM
2026-07-07

price $255,900 Active 571 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $252,900 Active 571 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $252,900 Active 570 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $252,900 Active 569 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $252,900 Active 567 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $252,900 Active 566 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $252,900 Active 565 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $252,900 Active 564 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $252,900 Active 563 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $252,900 Active 562 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $252,900 Active 561 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $252,900 Active 560 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $252,900 Active 558 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $252,900 Active 556 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $252,900 Active 555 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $252,900 Active 552 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $252,900 Active 551 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $252,900 Active 550 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $252,900 Active 549 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $252,900 Active 547 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $252,900 Active 543 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $252,900 Active 542 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $252,900 Active 541 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $252,900 Active 538 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $252,900 Active 537 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $252,900 Active 536 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $23,759
− Mortgage interest: −$17,387
− Property taxes: −$4,656
− Insurance: −$1,552
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,901
− Management: −$1,901
− HOA: −$348
− Depreciation: −$9,030
Taxable loss: −$13,015

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,124
After-tax cash flow: $-4,196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story Acorn plan home in Homestead Estates is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and marketability ↑
Both Add landscaping around the front yard — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 20/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Elgin El F TX #4,180/4,322 Nat'l #37,719/41,679 Middle Elgin Middle F TX #1,327/1,662 Nat'l #11,007/14,009 High Elgin H S F TX #1,264/1,632 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Elgin ISD
NCES district ID: 4818360
Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $55,176
Composite: 19.62/100
National rank: #8749
State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Elgin

Score: 74/100
State rank: #167
US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Elgin, TX
County: Bastrop County · 1,545,133 people
City population: 27,860
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
Population (ZIP): 30,411
Household income: $98,534
Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
Current HPI: 416.87
Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-14.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

2026-04-02 Price Changed $252,900 Zillow
2026-02-10 Price Changed $249,900 Zillow
2025-10-13 Price Changed $257,900 Zillow
2025-10-04 Price Changed $254,900 Zillow
2025-08-07 Price Changed $274,900 Zillow
2025-07-01 Price Changed $297,900 Zillow
2025-05-08 Price Changed $294,900 Zillow
2025-04-01 Price Changed $302,900 Zillow
2025-01-03 Price Changed $299,900 Zillow
2024-12-13 Listed $296,900 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…