209 E Walnut St · Cleveland, MO 64734

$153,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 308 Days on market

Built 1961 0.30 ac lot $147/sqft · 34% below area Est $231k · 34% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer-upper being sold AS-IS—perfect for investors or DIY dreamers! This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers a great opportunity to add value and customize to your vision. With a functional layout and solid potential, this property is ready for renovation and transformation. Whether you’re looking for your next investment or a hands-on project, don’t miss the chance to bring this home back to life. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1961

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $153k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-284/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#431 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, cost of living A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Midway R-I (rural): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #201 of 324 in MO (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 588 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cass County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 308 days — a 12% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $120,684 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 308 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.66%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $231,319
• List price: $153,000
• Delta: -33.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
319 W Walnut St	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	995 (-4%)	14mo	$249,000	$250	61
505 S 3rd St	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (-10%)	6mo	$219,500	$235	55
206 S 5th St	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-8%)	13mo	$125,000	$130	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $81,790
• Equity at exit: $137,835

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.65×
• Total profit: $241,981
• Equity at exit: $297,245

Cash invested: $42,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64734

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,207 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,332/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $-24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,237

Max offer price $148,821

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,250
• Closing costs: $4,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $153,000 Active 308 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $153,000 Active 307 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $153,000 Active 306 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $153,000 Active 305 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $153,000 Active 303 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $153,000 Active 302 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $153,000 Active 299 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $153,000 Active 298 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $153,000 Active 297 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $153,000 Active 293 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $153,000 Active 292 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $153,000 Active 291 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $153,000 Active 290 DOM
14. 2026-02-05
    price $153,000 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Fixer-upper being sold AS-IS—perfect for investors or DIY dreamers! This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers a great opportunity to add value and customize to your vision. With a functional layout and solid potential, this property is ready for renovation and transformation. Whether you’re looking for your next investment or a hands-on project, don’t miss the chance to bring this home back to life. Schedule your showing today!

15. 2025-09-18
    price $154,000 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Fixer-upper being sold AS-IS—perfect for investors or DIY dreamers! This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers a great opportunity to add value and customize to your vision. With a functional layout and solid potential, this property is ready for renovation and transformation. Whether you’re looking for your next investment or a hands-on project, don’t miss the chance to bring this home back to life. Schedule your showing today!

16. 2025-08-15
    listed $159,000 Active 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Fixer-upper being sold AS-IS—perfect for investors or DIY dreamers! This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers a great opportunity to add value and customize to your vision. With a functional layout and solid potential, this property is ready for renovation and transformation. Whether you’re looking for your next investment or a hands-on project, don’t miss the chance to bring this home back to life. Schedule your showing today!

17. 2025-08-15
    historical $159,000 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Fixer-upper being sold AS-IS—perfect for investors or DIY dreamers! This 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers a great opportunity to add value and customize to your vision. With a functional layout and solid potential, this property is ready for renovation and transformation. Whether you’re looking for your next investment or a hands-on project, don’t miss the chance to bring this home back to life. Schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,332 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,484 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$152/yr (+$13/mo · 11.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,482
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,570
• − Property taxes: −$1,332
• − Insurance: −$765
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,159
• − Management: −$1,159
• − Depreciation: −$4,451
• Taxable loss: −$2,953
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$709
• After-tax cash flow: $425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midway R-I
• NCES district ID: 2931800
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $66,225
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6193
• State rank: #201 of 324 in MO

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #17836

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleveland, MO
• Population (ZIP): 2,065

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,292 people
• By 2030: 106,109 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 105,786 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 102,062 · -3.1%
• By 2075: 88,569 · -15.9%
• By 2100: 68,293 · -35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.1) · D 33.3% · R 65.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: -19.6pp · 2024: -32.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.1 2020: R+31.6 2016: R+35.9 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+19.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.19%
• Current HPI: 305.4
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $153,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $154,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-15 Listed $159,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-15 Coming Soon $159,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,332 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.