126 Roundup Rd · Middle River, MD 21220

$30,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 996 sqft · Manufactured · 37 Days on market

Built 1988

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Home for a first time buyer or to down size. This 2 BR home has been well maintained. Large updated Kitchen with stainless appliances, 2 Lg BRs. Master has private very large Bath with soaking tub. Laminate floors in LR, hall and 2nd BR. Up dated 2nd Bathroom. Deck for entertaining and larg shed for storage. Own your own home for the price of apartment.

Key facts

• Laminate floors
• Soaking tub
• Stainless appliances

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE LARGE BATH
• SOAKING TUB
• LAMINATE FLOORS
• UPDATED 2ND BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 65.9% vs local median 4.1% in Middle River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in MD, #2,777 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 251 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $29,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 65.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 212.71%
• DSCR: 10.46
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.17×
• Total profit: $85,414
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.26×
• Total profit: $178,592
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21220

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,147 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$38 /mo · $450/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $1,489

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 26%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,510	-5% $1,499	+0% $1,489	+5% $1,479	+10% $1,468
Rent	-10% $1,319	-5% $1,404	+0% $1,489	+5% $1,574	+10% $1,659
Rate	-1.0pp $1,504	-0.5pp $1,497	base $1,489	+0.5pp $1,481	+1.0pp $1,473

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3736 White Pine Rd Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	741	$1,310	$1.77	2d	21	0.88mi
37 Alberge Ln Middle River, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	928	$1,215	$1.31	2d	8	0.99mi
11550 Crossroads Cir Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	893	$2,849	$3.19	2d	15	1.05mi
6221 Greenleigh Ave Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,957	$2.79	2d	16	1.22mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $30,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $30,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $30,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $30,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $30,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $30,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $30,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $30,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $30,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    listed $30,000 Active 361-char remark
15. 2026-04-14
    historical
16. 2026-03-20
    price $20,000
17. 2026-03-05
    listed $30,000 Active
18. 2026-03-05
    historical
19. 2026-02-05
    listed $35,000 Active
20. 2011-04-09
    historical
21. 2011-04-07
    soldstatus $26,900 Sold
22. 2011-04-07
    soldstatus $26,900
23. 2011-02-23
    status Contract
24. 2011-02-22
    historical
25. 2010-11-01
    listed $29,999 Active
26. 2010-11-01
    listed $29,999

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,766
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$450
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,061
• − Management: −$2,061
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $18,490
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,438
• After-tax cash flow: $13,430/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Middle River

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #2777

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middle River, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 42,824
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 42,824
• Household income: $81,817
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1921.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 27% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Ukrainian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.31%
• Current HPI: 254.5597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $30,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-04-14 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $20,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $30,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $35,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-04-09 Delisted — MRIS
• 2011-04-07 Sold (MLS) $26,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-04-07 Sold (MLS) $26,900 MRIS
• 2011-02-23 Pending — MRIS
• 2011-02-22 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-11-01 Listed $29,999 MRIS
• 2010-11-01 Listed $29,999 BRIGHT MLS