16940 N Briarwood Dr · Sun City, AZ 85378

$199,980

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 883 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 2000 5,229 sqft lot $226/sqft · 40% below area Est $332k · 40% under $57/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Ranch style single family home offers 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with approximately 883 square feet of living space on a 0.12 acre lot. There are no inspection or financing contingencies on this cash only purchase. No Buyer Premium on this property. It is a criminal offense to trespass on this property. The data presented in this listing is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This information should be used for informational use only and does not constitute a legal document for the description of this property. Buyer or Buyer's Agent to verify all facts, figures, schools, dimensions, Sq Ft, permits, HOA fees etc. that is of material importance to Buyer.

Key facts

• 5,229 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2000

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-83/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#31 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 76 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $354 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,633 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.15%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $332,074
• List price: $199,980
• Delta: -39.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11355 W Crestbrook Dr	0.06mi	2/1.0	883 (0%)	5mo	$310,000	$351	89
16530 N 114th Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0	883 (0%)	13mo	$316,000	$358	78
11413 W Pinehollow Dr	0.34mi	2/1.0	883 (0%)	19mo	$276,000	$313	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.18% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-9,370
• Equity at exit: $59,843

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,050
• Equity at exit: $73,366

Cash invested: $55,994 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85378

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,606 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,042/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$57
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,615

Max offer price $198,760

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $50	+0% $-7	+5% $-64	+10% $-120
Rent	-10% $-134	-5% $-70	+0% $-7	+5% $57	+10% $120
Rate	-1.0pp $94	-0.5pp $44	base $-7	+0.5pp $-59	+1.0pp $-111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,995
• Closing costs: $5,999
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 2 Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,732	$1.61	25d	1	0.29mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 1 Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	782	$1,497	$1.91	25d	1	0.29mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,813	$1.68	13d	1	0.36mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	782	$1,714	$2.19	15d	1	0.36mi
12123 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	576	$1,000	$1.74	44d	4	0.95mi
12123 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	634	$962	$1.52	3d	3	0.95mi
12123 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	634	$1,025	$1.62	25d	4	0.95mi
12221 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	567	$1,165	$2.05	2d	5	1.07mi
12221 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	567	$1,175	$2.07	6d	4	1.07mi
12221 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	567	$1,100	$1.94	18d	4	1.07mi
12221 W Bell Rd Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	567	$1,100	$1.94	19d	4	1.07mi
12221 W Bell Rd #175 Surprise, AZ	1.0	1.0	560	$1,198	$2.14	44d	1	1.09mi
16629 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1052	$1,462	$1.39	2d	3	1.34mi
10831 W Tropicana Cir Sun City, AZ	2.0	1.0	995	$2,800	$2.81	20d	1	1.44mi
10814 W El Capitan Cir Sun City, AZ	2.0	1.0	995	$3,000	$3.02	15d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $57 · $684/yr

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 669-char remark

   Show marketing remark (669 chars)

   This Ranch style single family home offers 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with approximately 883 square feet of living space on a 0.12 acre lot. There are no inspection or financing contingencies on this cash only purchase. No Buyer Premium on this property. It is a criminal offense to trespass on this property. The data presented in this listing is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This information should be used for informational use only and does not constitute a legal document for the description of this property. Buyer or Buyer's Agent to verify all facts, figures, schools, dimensions, Sq Ft, permits, HOA fees etc. that is of material importance to Buyer.

2. 2026-04-16
   price $199,980 669-char remark

   Show marketing remark (669 chars)

   This Ranch style single family home offers 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with approximately 883 square feet of living space on a 0.12 acre lot. There are no inspection or financing contingencies on this cash only purchase. No Buyer Premium on this property. It is a criminal offense to trespass on this property. The data presented in this listing is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This information should be used for informational use only and does not constitute a legal document for the description of this property. Buyer or Buyer's Agent to verify all facts, figures, schools, dimensions, Sq Ft, permits, HOA fees etc. that is of material importance to Buyer.

3. 2026-03-04
   listed $230,280 Active 669-char remark

   Show marketing remark (669 chars)

   This Ranch style single family home offers 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with approximately 883 square feet of living space on a 0.12 acre lot. There are no inspection or financing contingencies on this cash only purchase. No Buyer Premium on this property. It is a criminal offense to trespass on this property. The data presented in this listing is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. This information should be used for informational use only and does not constitute a legal document for the description of this property. Buyer or Buyer's Agent to verify all facts, figures, schools, dimensions, Sq Ft, permits, HOA fees etc. that is of material importance to Buyer.

4. 2026-02-23
   historical
5. 2026-02-20
   price $280,000
6. 2026-02-13
   price $250,000
7. 2025-11-20
   listed $300,000 Active
8. 2025-09-25
   status Pending
9. 2025-09-24
   historical
10. 2025-09-09
    status Active
11. 2025-08-31
    status Pending
12. 2025-08-20
    price $305,000
13. 2025-07-29
    price $310,000
14. 2025-07-17
    listed $316,000 Active
15. 2021-10-01
    soldstatus $288,000 Closed
16. 2021-09-05
    status Pending
17. 2021-08-16
    listed $295,000 Active
18. 2020-07-11
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
19. 2020-07-10
    status Active
20. 2020-07-09
    historical
21. 2020-07-09
    listed $195,000 Active
22. 2005-03-08
    soldstatus $132,000
23. 2005-03-08
    soldstatus $132,000
24. 2005-01-17
    listed $132,900
25. 2004-03-01
    historical
26. 2003-11-09
    listed $112,900
27. 2003-07-09
    soldstatus $103,500
28. 2003-06-26
    soldstatus $103,500
29. 2003-05-18
    historical
30. 2003-05-14
    listed $101,900
31. 2003-05-12
    historical
32. 2002-11-12
    listed $101,900
33. 2002-11-05
    historical
34. 2002-07-10
    listed $102,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,042 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,320 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$277/yr (+$23/mo · 26.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,202
• − Property taxes: −$1,042
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,542
• − Management: −$1,542
• − HOA: −$684
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,554
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$853
• After-tax cash flow: $770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sun City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #6450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sun City, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 47,846
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,765
• Household income: $56,444
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 510.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Arabic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.18%
• Current HPI: 287.1228
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.53%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+94.3% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $199,980 ARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $230,280 ARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $280,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $250,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-20 Listed $300,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-25 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-09-24 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-09-09 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-08-31 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $305,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $310,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listed $316,000 ARMLS
• 2021-10-01 Sold (MLS) $288,000 ARMLS
• 2021-09-05 Pending — ARMLS
• 2021-08-16 Listed $295,000 ARMLS
• 2020-07-11 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2020-07-10 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2020-07-09 Listed $195,000 ARMLS
• 2020-07-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-08 Sold (MLS) $132,000 ARMLS
• 2005-01-17 Listed $132,900 ARMLS
• 2004-03-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2003-11-09 Listed $112,900 ARMLS
• 2003-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $103,500 Public Records
• 2003-06-26 Sold (MLS) $103,500 ARMLS
• 2003-05-18 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2003-05-14 Listed $101,900 ARMLS
• 2003-05-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2002-11-12 Listed $101,900 ARMLS
• 2002-11-05 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2002-07-10 Listed $102,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,042 · +12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.