44144 W Cypress Ln · Maricopa, AZ 85138

$250,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2005 5,401 sqft lot Est $299k · 16% under $92/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this perfect family home located in a quiet Maricopa neighborhood within just minutes of multiple schools, shopping centers, Ak-Chin Resort and Casino, and the Copper Sky Recreation Park. BRAND NEW Wood-like laminate and tile run throughout the home and with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 1,572 sq ft, and a large backyard, it is perfect for the whole family. House is priced to sell so don't miss your opportunity to make this house your home!

Key facts

• 5,401 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community amenities include playground and biking/walking path
• Financial info: Current financing options noted: FHA and assumable (no qualify)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee (maintenance of grounds) reported; Association fee charged quarterly

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer; 220-volt supply to kitchen
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership; Property listed as fixer condition
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Block fencing; Dirt in back yard; Gravel/stone in front yard; City-maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: 220-volt outlet in kitchen; Laminate counters; Pantry; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Vaulted ceilings; Pantry; 3/4 bath in primary bedroom; Laminate counters; Disposal
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.7% in Maricopa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maricopa Unified School District (4441) (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #128 of 249 in AZ (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Saddleback Elementary School (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #580 of 1,109 statewide, top 53%, 795 students, 56% FRL); Maricopa Wells Middle School (math 13% / reading 23%, grade F, #143 of 218 statewide, top 66%, 934 students, 57% FRL); Maricopa High School (math 12% / reading 19%, grade F, #262 of 381 statewide, top 69%, 2,188 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 845 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,316 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.97%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $298,680
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
44357 W Cypress Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,573 (+0%)	1mo	$310,000	$197	92
44441 W Cypress Ln	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,573 (+0%)	9mo	$299,000	$190	78
43871 W Cowpath Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,509 (-4%)	3mo	$260,000	$172	64
44781 W Zion Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,445 (-8%)	9mo	$325,000	$225	60
43909 W Arizona Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,509 (-4%)	2mo	$190,500	$126	58
18552 N Ibis Way	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,509 (-4%)	3mo	$306,000	$203	56
45085 W Mescal St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,413 (-10%)	1mo	$290,000	$205	54
43171 W Cowpath Rd	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,534 (-2%)	10mo	$225,000	$147	53
45085 W Windrose Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,413 (-10%)	4mo	$285,000	$202	51
45084 W Desert Cedars Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,753 (+12%)	7mo	$305,000	$174	45
18930 N Dallas Smith Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,725 (+10%)	6mo	$235,000	$136	45
45070 W Windrose Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,753 (+12%)	9mo	$260,000	$148	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.89% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-27,287
• Equity at exit: $61,796

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-21,001
• Equity at exit: $66,050

Cash invested: $70,112 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85138

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 845
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,943 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,313
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,688/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,089

Max offer price $230,075

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,600
• Closing costs: $7,512
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43814 W Cypress Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2170	$2,095	$0.97	44d	1	0.21mi
43760 W Cypress Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2142	$2,000	$0.93	44d	1	0.24mi
44928 W Zion Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1875	$1,950	$1.04	44d	1	0.49mi
44900 W Bowlin Rd Maricopa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,320	$2.28	1d	1	0.50mi
18283 N Presley Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	2156	$2,000	$0.93	24d	1	0.53mi
44170 W Honeycutt Ave Maricopa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	913	$1,450	$1.59	1d	1	0.62mi
43361 W Elizabeth Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1509	$1,795	$1.19	24d	1	0.62mi
43811 W Elizabeth Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1509	$1,575	$1.04	24d	1	0.66mi
45129 W Desert Cedars Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1753	$1,875	$1.07	5d	1	0.66mi
45310 W Norris Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,539	$1.11	2d	1	0.78mi
45310 W Norris Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,649	$1.19	24d	1	0.78mi
43205 W Jeremy St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1699	$1,850	$1.09	5d	1	0.79mi
17447 N Marina Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1397	$1,595	$1.14	24d	1	0.81mi
44000 W Palo Olmo Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1853	$1,850	$1.00	44d	1	0.86mi
45539 W Sky Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1831	$1,909	$1.04	3d	1	0.87mi
42725 W Martie Lynn Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1509	$2,015	$1.34	24d	1	0.87mi
45556 W Tucker Rd Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2152	$1,795	$0.83	44d	1	0.92mi
45462 W Tulip Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1391	$1,750	$1.26	44d	1	0.92mi
43269 W Arizona Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1533	$1,695	$1.11	44d	1	0.92mi
44124 W Palo Cedro Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,595	$0.99	44d	1	0.96mi
19680 N Ortman Cir Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1975	$1,700	$0.86	3d	1	1.01mi
45779 W Tucker Rd Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1925	$2,199	$1.14	24d	1	1.05mi
42495 W Monteverde Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,500	$1.68	44d	1	1.08mi
45811 W Amsterdam Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1993	$1,700	$0.85	44d	1	1.12mi
45967 W Starlight Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1671	$1,675	$1.00	22d	1	1.15mi
45959 W Ranch Rd Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,709	$1.06	3d	1	1.16mi
42381 W Mira Ct Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,795	$1.13	44d	1	1.19mi
42381 W Mira Ct Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,795	$1.13	24d	1	1.19mi
42584 W Maricopa-Casa Grande Hwy Maricopa, AZ	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1140	$1,723	$1.51	1d	58	1.20mi
43223 W Neely Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2223	$2,900	$1.30	17d	1	1.21mi
43368 W Palmen Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2200	$1,889	$0.86	44d	1	1.24mi
42275 W Calle St Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	1807	$2,050	$1.13	3d	1	1.24mi
42275 W Calle St Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	1807	$2,050	$1.13	44d	1	1.24mi
42246 W Balsa Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1585	$1,679	$1.06	44d	1	1.27mi
18184 N Calacera St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,795	$1.12	17d	1	1.28mi
46149 W Guilder Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,600	$1.12	4d	1	1.28mi
19165 N Ventana Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	24d	1	1.32mi
46176 W Amsterdam Rd Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	2200	$1,895	$0.86	44d	1	1.35mi
44456 W Eddie Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1679	$1,695	$1.01	44d	1	1.45mi
42826 W Darter Dr Maricopa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1596	$1,875	$1.17	24d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $92 · $1,104/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,400 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,400 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,400 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,400 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,400 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 325-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $250,400 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,688 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,688 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,026
• − Property taxes: −$1,688
• − Insurance: −$1,252
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,865
• − Management: −$1,865
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$7,284
• Taxable loss: −$5,768
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,384
• After-tax cash flow: $4/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified School District (4441)
• NCES district ID: 0404720
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,725
• Composite: 22.92/100
• National rank: #7993
• State rank: #128 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Maricopa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #5943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maricopa, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 76,044
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 55,260
• Household income: $95,867
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Native American 3% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Current HPI: 258.1461
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-93.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $250,400 ARMLS
• 2023-12-24 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-12-15 Listed $315,000 ARMLS
• 2019-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-28 Sold (MLS) $185,000 ARMLS
• 2019-10-23 Pending — ARMLS
• 2019-10-23 Listed $184,800 ARMLS
• 2019-10-22 Sold (MLS) $185,000 ARMLS
• 2019-09-13 Pending — ARMLS
• 2019-09-06 Listed $184,800 ARMLS
• 2004-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $3,738,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,688 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.