1815 Thompson St · La Marque, TX 77568

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Land · 125 Days on market

Built 2025 7,239 sqft lot $159/sqft · 383% above area ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Open-concept floor plan with plenty of natural light, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Conveniently located near major freeways, shopping, schools, and restaurants, you’ll enjoy quick access to Houston and Galveston. A great home in a great location don’t miss this opportunity!

Key facts

• Natural light
• Conveniently located
• 7,239 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• QUICK ACCESS TO HOUSTON
• QUICK ACCESS TO GALVESTON

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.6% in La Marque — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,136 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Texas City ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #655 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 661 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.71%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $41,214
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: 382.84%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-13,733
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $16,641
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 661
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,807 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $430/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,471

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $378	-5% $321	+0% $265	+5% $209	+10% $-86
Rent	-10% $122	-5% $194	+0% $265	+5% $336	+10% $408
Rate	-1.0pp $365	-0.5pp $316	base $265	+0.5pp $213	+1.0pp $161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1013 Margot St La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1099	$1,500	$1.36	20d	1	0.29mi
1401 Austin St La Marque, TX	4.0	3.0	1542	$2,400	$1.56	45d	1	0.41mi
1230 Kirsten St La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$1,660	$0.97	4d	1	0.43mi
1006 E Camp Cir La Marque, TX	3.0	1.0	1230	$1,500	$1.22	26d	1	0.43mi
309 S Bell Dr Texas City, TX	2.0	2.0	1316	$1,650	$1.25	45d	1	0.56mi
203 Beatrice St La Marque, TX	3.0	1.0	1304	$1,395	$1.07	26d	1	0.58mi
1825 Bayou Rd La Marque, TX	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,195	$1.00	45d	1	0.80mi
2729 Main St La Marque, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	864	$950	$1.10	0d	3	1.09mi
509 Bluebonnet Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	1.0	1223	$1,550	$1.27	45d	1	1.17mi
7510 Hummingbird Ln Texas City, TX	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,550	$1.29	4d	1	1.21mi
619 N Vionett Ln Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,550	$1.29	7d	1	1.22mi
14403 Daniel Shores Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	3.0–3.5	1872	$2,600	$1.39	0d	12	1.23mi
4417 Edward St Texas City, TX	2.0	2.0	983	$1,150	$1.17	4d	1	1.26mi
4417 Edward St Texas City, TX	2.0	2.0	983	$1,100	$1.12	5d	1	1.26mi
113 N Pecan Dr Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	1468	$3,000	$2.04	45d	1	1.27mi
6607 Memorial Dr Texas City, TX	2.0	1.0	936	$1,200	$1.28	45d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending 303-char remark

   Show marketing remark (303 chars)

   Open-concept floor plan with plenty of natural light, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Conveniently located near major freeways, shopping, schools, and restaurants, you’ll enjoy quick access to Houston and Galveston. A great home in a great location don’t miss this opportunity!

2. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 303-char remark

   Show marketing remark (303 chars)

   Open-concept floor plan with plenty of natural light, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Conveniently located near major freeways, shopping, schools, and restaurants, you’ll enjoy quick access to Houston and Galveston. A great home in a great location don’t miss this opportunity!

3. 2026-04-09
   price $199,000 303-char remark

   Show marketing remark (303 chars)

   Open-concept floor plan with plenty of natural light, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Conveniently located near major freeways, shopping, schools, and restaurants, you’ll enjoy quick access to Houston and Galveston. A great home in a great location don’t miss this opportunity!

4. 2026-01-14
   listed $209,000 Active 303-char remark

   Show marketing remark (303 chars)

   Open-concept floor plan with plenty of natural light, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Conveniently located near major freeways, shopping, schools, and restaurants, you’ll enjoy quick access to Houston and Galveston. A great home in a great location don’t miss this opportunity!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $430 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,212/yr (+$268/mo · 747.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,680
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$430
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,734
• − Management: −$1,734
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$150
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$36
• After-tax cash flow: $3,215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Texas City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842510
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,875
• Composite: 24.47/100
• National rank: #7664
• State rank: #655 of 826 in TX

Livability — La Marque

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1136
• US rank: #20037

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Marque, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 23,083
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $209,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $430 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.