8138 18th Ln SE · Lacey, WA 98503

$225,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured · 93 Days on market

Built 2000 Fair condition $139/sqft · 15% below area Est $266k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

55+ home located in Laurel Oaks. You're just a few minutes from shopping, The Reginal Athletic Center, shopping and freeway access to I-5. Park has secured gate, RV parking and clubhouse. Home has 2 bedrooms, a den/office, dining room and 1.75 baths with easy access shower having handles. Gas fireplace for the cold nights and heat pump for cooling in summer. Covered patio for entertaining. Appliances were recently purchased and included in sale.

Key facts

• Rv parking
• Clubhouse
• Heat pump

Tags

• SECURED GATE
• RV PARKING
• CLUBHOUSE
• GAS FIREPLACE
• HEAT PUMP
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $226k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $306 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $226k).
• Recommended offer: $205k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.0% in Lacey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#33 in WA, #581 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 190 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $205,205 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.82%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $266,079
• List price: $225,500
• Delta: -15.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1823 Cranberry Ln SE	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,676 (+4%)	2mo	$190,000	$113	90
1933 Windflower Ln SE	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,720 (+6%)	11mo	$246,000	$143	71
1901 Cranberry Ln SE #88	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,458 (-10%)	10mo	$230,000	$158	71
1924 Sorrel Ln SE	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (+6%)	10mo	$275,000	$160	70
8026 18th Ln SE #131	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,640 (+1%)	22mo	$255,000	$155	68
8014 18th Ln SE	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,464 (-10%)	14mo	$245,000	$167	64
1924 SE Poppy Ln Unit 108A	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,715 (+6%)	23mo	$275,000	$160	61
8019 18th Ln SE #122	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (+9%)	17mo	$269,000	$153	59
8727 Pacific Ave SE	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+4%)	1mo	$474,750	$283	54
8030 18th Ln SE #132	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,804 (+11%)	21mo	$269,000	$149	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-15,668
• Equity at exit: $33,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $17,160
• Equity at exit: $19,497

Cash invested: $63,140 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98503

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,360 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,183
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$282 /mo · $3,382/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,973

Max offer price $225,500

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,375
• Closing costs: $6,765
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8146 Sweetbrier Ln SE Lacey, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	855	$2,003	$2.34	3d	8	0.35mi
8420 13th Ave SE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.5	2164	$2,800	$1.29	43d	1	0.36mi
8107 26th Ave SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1594	$2,295	$1.44	43d	1	0.51mi
2723 Hidden Springs Loop SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.0	1209	$2,600	$2.15	43d	1	0.57mi
2712 Mayes Rd SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1763	$2,495	$1.42	21d	1	0.59mi
2732 Hidden Springs Loop SE Unit 1 Olympia, WA	3.0	2.5	1778	$2,595	$1.46	43d	1	0.61mi
1446 Laredo Dr SE Olympia, WA	3.0	3.0	1828	$2,700	$1.48	13d	1	0.90mi
7808 Pamela Ct SE Lacey, WA	2.0	1.0	1170	$2,250	$1.92	13d	1	1.12mi
716 Kinwood Ct SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.0	1256	$2,495	$1.99	43d	1	1.37mi
7509 38th Dr SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,695	$1.50	43d	1	1.42mi
7641 3rd Way SE Lacey, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	925	$2,178	$2.35	13d	9	1.45mi
316 Choker St SE Unit 4 Olympia, WA	2.0	1.5	1060	$1,795	$1.69	13d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,500 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,500 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,500 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,500 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,500 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,500 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,500 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,500 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,500 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,500 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,500 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,500 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,500 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,500 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,500 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-03-17
    listed $225,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,322
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,632
• − Property taxes: −$3,382
• − Insurance: −$1,128
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,266
• − Management: −$2,266
• − Depreciation: −$6,560
• Taxable income: $89
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$21
• After-tax cash flow: $3,653/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and appeal to potential buyers or renters.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear
• Minor interior walls — paint needs touch-up
• Minor landscaping — overgrown lawn

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Resale update flooring in kitchen — new flooring improves aesthetics
• Both landscaping and patio clean-up — improves curb appeal and creates a welcoming space

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
interior walls · paint needs touch-up	Minor	$500–3,000
landscaping · overgrown lawn	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale update flooring in kitchen — new flooring improves aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping and patio clean-up — improves curb appeal and creates a welcoming space ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Thurston Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5305850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,338
• Composite: 51.09/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #80 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lacey

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #581

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 108,850
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 41,656
• Household income: $89,002
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2195.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 7% Black 5% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -385.93%
• Current HPI: 361.0974
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.56%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $225,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid