225 Dubois St · Newburgh, NY 12550

$279,900

7 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,872 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1890 5,500 sqft lot Est $416k · 33% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Attention all investors & contractors. This wonderful 3 family has great income generating possibilities, once its rehabbed. Come take a look. Bring all offers. Being sold as-is

Key facts

• 5,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1890
• Listed 45 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 2-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($26k/yr) — positive. Per door: $735/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $280k).
• Recommended offer: $272k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 4.4% in Newburgh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#878 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Newburgh City School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #500 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Horizon-On-The-Hudson Magnet School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,846 of 2,108 statewide, top 91%, 455 students, 57% FRL); South Middle School (math 7% / reading 33%, grade F, #666 of 729 statewide, top 93%, 878 students, 58% FRL); Newburgh Free Academy (math 76% / reading 85%, grade A, #506 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 3,433 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 383 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,784/mo this rent would consume 81% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 2412% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $271,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
6. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.60%
• DSCR: 2.54
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $416,440
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
57 Carpenter Ave	0.47mi	7/3.0	3,000 (+4%)	8mo	$460,000	$153	64
55 Carpenter Ave	0.47mi	8/4.0 (+1)	3,000 (+4%)	9mo	$435,000	$145	55
189 Liberty St	0.53mi	7/5.0	2,927 (+2%)	16mo	$565,000	$193	51
298 Liberty St	0.30mi	6/3.0 (-1)	2,573 (-10%)	20mo	$370,000	$144	47
17 Lutheran St	0.54mi	6/2.0 (-1)	2,670 (-7%)	15mo	$285,000	$107	41
60 Johnston St	0.47mi	6/2.0 (-1)	2,625 (-9%)	18mo	$298,000	$114	40
27 Clark St	0.69mi	8/3.0 (+1)	2,724 (-5%)	19mo	$410,000	$151	38
204 Grand St	0.37mi	6/5.0 (-1)	3,254 (+13%)	12mo	$350,000	$108	38
16 Lutheran St	0.55mi	6/2.0 (-1)	2,508 (-13%)	13mo	$380,000	$152	33
47 Carpenter Ave	0.48mi	8/3.0 (+1)	3,234 (+13%)	23mo	$460,000	$142	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $81,903
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $200,787
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12550

• Home prices YoY: -33.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,784 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$725 /mo · $8,703/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,215
• Net cashflow: $2,204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,994

Max offer price $279,900

Occupancy floor 57%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	—	$5,784
Total (3 units)			$5,784

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2025-03-06
   price $279,900
3. 2025-02-17
   listed $299,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,703 · $725/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,703 · $725/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $69,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$8,703
• − Insurance: −$2,066
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,553
• − Management: −$5,553
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable income: $23,712
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,691
• After-tax cash flow: $20,758/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newburgh City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620700
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,387
• Composite: 35.46/100
• National rank: #4927
• State rank: #500 of 590 in NY

Livability — Newburgh

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #878
• US rank: #17021

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newburgh, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 55,152
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,152
• Household income: $85,697
• Rent vs Own: 44.2% rent · 55.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2412.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% White 36% Black 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 30% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.93%
• Current HPI: 304.1046
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.63%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-6.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-03 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-06 Price Changed $279,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-17 Listed $299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,703 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.