266 Layton Rd · Pine Plains, NY 12581

$459,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,908 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1987 1.40 ac lot Est $443k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

This well maintained 3 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath home is located on 1.4 acres on a peaceful, rural road in the Town of Stanford NY. The main floor includes a living room, dining area and kitchen. Raised ceilings in the living and dining space create a feeling of natural light and openness. Also located on this floor is a primary bedroom with bath as well as two additional bedrooms and another full bath. Sliding glass doors open to a deck overlooking a large outdoor area with ample space for entertaining and relaxation. The peaceful outdoor area features a double-tiered pond with a pump-fed waterfall and a cozy fire pit. A meandering stream runs along the rear of the property. The lower level offe

Key facts

• Cozy wood stove
• Meandering stream
• Spacious back yard

Tags

• DECK OVERLOOKING BACK YARD
• MEANDERING STREAM
• SMALL POND FOR FISH
• SPACIOUS BACK YARD
• COZY WOOD STOVE
• NEWLY BLACKTOPPED DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with garage door opener; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: Septic tank; Cable available; Electric service by Central Hudson; Generator
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Blown-in insulation; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Shed(s); Back yard; Front yard; Cleared and landscaped grounds; Level parcel with part wooded and rolling slope areas; Stone/brick wall

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes a first-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Oil heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom and full bath; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Chandelier; Primary bathroom; Storm doors; Blinds; Double-pane windows; Deck
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry room; Oil water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $459k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-505 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $370k (19.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $325k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $325k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.6% in Pine Plains — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#746 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pine Plains Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #372 of 755 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cold Spring Early Learning Center (165 students, 12% FRL); Stissing Mountain Junior/Senior High School (math 92% / reading 75%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 460 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 24% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 84% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+31 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pine Plains Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$79k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($445k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $287k; list at $459k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $325,119 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.20%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $442,656
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
266 Layton Rd	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,908 (0%)	1mo	$442,500	$232	100
229 Layton Rd	0.18mi	3/3.0	1,986 (+4%)	22mo	$425,000	$214	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $217,802
• Equity at exit: $413,504

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $666,667
• Equity at exit: $891,736

Cash invested: $128,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12581

• Home prices YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,251 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,407
• Tax from tax record: −$420 /mo · $5,036/yr
• Insurance: −$191
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$683
• Net cashflow: $-505

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,891

Max offer price $369,773

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-245	-5% $-375	+0% $-505	+5% $-635	+10% $-765
Rent	-10% $-762	-5% $-634	+0% $-505	+5% $-377	+10% $-248
Rate	-1.0pp $-274	-0.5pp $-388	base $-505	+0.5pp $-624	+1.0pp $-745

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $114,750
• Closing costs: $13,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-27
   listed $459,000 Active
3. 2004-09-17
   soldstatus $287,000
4. 1996-08-19
   soldstatus $123,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,036 · $420/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,397 · $533/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,360/yr (+$113/mo · 27.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,014
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,711
• − Property taxes: −$5,036
• − Insurance: −$2,962
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,121
• − Management: −$3,121
• − Depreciation: −$13,353
• Taxable loss: −$14,290
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,430
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,632/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Plains Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3623040
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $66,189
• Composite: 48.33/100
• National rank: #4688
• State rank: #372 of 755 in NY

Livability — Pine Plains

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #746
• US rank: #14240

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,498
• Population (ZIP): 1,928

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.70%
• Current HPI: 270.6533
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+270.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Listed $459,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $287,000 Public Records
• 1996-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $123,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,036 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.