28800 Zion Dr · Lake Arrowhead, CA 92352

$370,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1977 9,440 sqft lot $236/sqft · 37% below area Est $587k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the scenic mountain community of Lake Arrowhead, this lake-view home at 28800 Zion Dr offers a rare opportunity to create your ideal retreat. Featuring beautiful views of the lake, the property is a true fixer-upper being sold in as-is condition, ready for a buyer with vision to update and make it their own. Tax records reflect the home as a 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence; however, the basement has been converted to include an additional bedroom and bathroom, with permit status unknown. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence, vacation getaway, or investment project, this property presents incredible potential in a highly desirable mountain setting.

Key facts

• Mountain community
• Lake view
• 9,440 sq ft lot

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• MOUNTAIN COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Single-unit property (no ADU); No common walls
• Financial info: Special assessments
• HOA & community: Community near mountains and a lake

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Electricity connected (standard); Public sewer / sewer connected; District/public water / water connected
• Home design: House; Two stories; Entry on the front/level 2; Access via paved city streets
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Foundation: see remarks; Built date per assessor
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; No pool; No fencing; Lot shape is rectangular; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Laminate counters; Gas range; Gas oven; Eating area in kitchen and in living room
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Bathrooms with tub and separate shower / shower in tub
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace
• Interior features: Beamed ceilings; Living room fireplace; Two levels; Front entry (entry on level 2)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $580 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $370k).
• Recommended offer: $359k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.8% in Lake Arrowhead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#965 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, commute B+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Rim Of The World Unified (town): math 13% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #415 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 573 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($106k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($359k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $370k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $358,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.71%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $587,062
• List price: $370,000
• Delta: -36.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28680 Zion Dr	0.18mi	3/3.5	1,608 (+3%)	11mo	$505,000	$314	73
1353 Golden Rule Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,676 (+7%)	3mo	$430,000	$257	72
1370 Calgary Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,504 (-4%)	2mo	$775,000	$515	65
1159 Yellowstone	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,441 (-8%)	5mo	$492,500	$342	65
28842 Banff Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,746 (+11%)	12mo	$465,000	$266	64
1208 Yosemite Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,406 (-10%)	13mo	$685,000	$487	61
1458 Sequoia Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+15%)	4mo	$599,000	$333	60
1310 Montreal Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+10%)	5mo	$530,000	$307	58
1280 Montreal Dr	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,490 (-5%)	14mo	$637,500	$428	57
1358 Golden Rule Ln	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,784 (+14%)	8mo	$450,000	$252	50
1275 Portillo Ln	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,702 (+8%)	10mo	$405,000	$238	39
28227 Arbon Ln	0.67mi	3/3.5	1,728 (+10%)	13mo	$565,000	$327	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-23,102
• Equity at exit: $55,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $27,172
• Equity at exit: $31,991

Cash invested: $103,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92352

• Home prices YoY: -22.6%
• Active inventory: 573
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,730 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$273 /mo · $3,275/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$783
• Net cashflow: $580

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,997

Max offer price $370,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $789	-5% $684	+0% $580	+5% $475	+10% $370
Rent	-10% $285	-5% $432	+0% $580	+5% $727	+10% $874
Rate	-1.0pp $766	-0.5pp $674	base $580	+0.5pp $484	+1.0pp $386

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,500
• Closing costs: $11,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28761 Zion Dr Lake Arrowhead, CA	3.0	2.0	1950	$4,500	$2.31	0d	1	0.14mi
173 Zermatt Dr Lake Arrowhead, CA	3.0	3.0	1620	$2,800	$1.73	5d	1	0.81mi
29392 Lakeview Dr Cedar Glen, CA	3.0	2.0	1188	$2,100	$1.77	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $370,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $370,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $370,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $370,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $370,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $370,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $370,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $370,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $370,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $370,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $370,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $370,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $370,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $370,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $370,000 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-04-27
    listed $370,000 Active 684-char remark
17. 2001-12-10
    soldstatus $180,000
18. 1991-09-18
    soldstatus $150,000
19. 1978-07-20
    soldstatus $73,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,275 · $273/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,275 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥85°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,765
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,726
• − Property taxes: −$3,275
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,581
• − Management: −$3,581
• − Depreciation: −$10,764
• Taxable income: $988
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$237
• After-tax cash flow: $6,718/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rim Of The World Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632610
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $55,860
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8389
• State rank: #415 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Arrowhead

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #965
• US rank: #24524

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment B Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Arrowhead, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 6,246
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,246
• Household income: $105,753
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 109.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 16% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 5% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.32%
• Current HPI: 271.3789
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+403.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $370,000 CRMLS
• 2001-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 1991-09-18 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 1978-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $73,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,275 · -5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.