1243 Royal Oak Dr · Dunedin, FL 34698

$326,100

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1976 0.38 ac lot $9/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investors looking for a challenging and potentially profitable total rehab sinkhole property check this out. Prime location in Dunedin. With its rich cultural heritage, active social scene, and friendly atmosphere, Dunedin earns accolades worldwide for its quality of life. Royal Oak is a small single-street community just minutes to the recently restored Dunedin Golf Club, a historic Donald Ross-designed course as well as Vibrant Downtown Dunedin, known for its award-winning breweries, restaurants, and boutique shops. Outdoor enthusiasts will love the proximity to the Pinellas Trail, Dunedin Community Center, and Fine Arts Center, while Beach Lovers can enjoy the Pristine Shores of Honeymoo

Key facts

• Caladesi island
• Fine arts center
• 0.38 acre lot

Tags

• SMALL SINGLE-STREET COMMUNITY
• PROXIMITY TO PINELLAS TRAIL
• DUNEDIN COMMUNITY CENTER
• FINE ARTS CENTER
• CALADESI ISLAND
• SUGAR SAND ON CLEARWATER BEACH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $326k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $326k).
• Recommended offer: $307k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.8% in Dunedin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#15 in FL, #411 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities D.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Garrison-Jones Elementary School (math 66% / reading 58%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 593 students, 46% FRL); Dunedin High School (math 36% / reading 45%, grade F, #294 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 1,203 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 478 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,653/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 1390% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask is 9987% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $326k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $306,534 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.33%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $872,960
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1973 Dunloe Cir	0.12mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,684 (+5%)	20mo	$1,110,000	$414	64
2297 Demaret Dr	0.48mi	5/3.0	2,728 (+7%)	13mo	$935,000	$343	56
1943 Dunloe Cir	0.18mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,856 (+12%)	24mo	$1,200,000	$420	48
1080 Mccarty St	0.52mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,263 (-12%)	8mo	$589,000	$260	45
1615 Cinnamon Ln	0.53mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,485 (-3%)	24mo	$810,000	$326	41
1654 Mckay Ct	0.73mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,653 (+4%)	13mo	$626,000	$236	40
2302 Jones Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,321 (-9%)	18mo	$870,000	$375	40
1164 Ford Ln	0.54mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,347 (-8%)	22mo	$800,000	$341	37
1572 Mac Charles Ct	0.39mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,234 (-13%)	22mo	$625,000	$280	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-37,559
• Equity at exit: $48,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-15,395
• Equity at exit: $28,195

Cash invested: $91,308 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34698

• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 478
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,653 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,710
• Tax from tax record: −$778 /mo · $9,336/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$9
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$767
• Net cashflow: $253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,333

Max offer price $326,100

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $438	-5% $346	+0% $253	+5% $161	+10% $69
Rent	-10% $-35	-5% $109	+0% $253	+5% $398	+10% $542
Rate	-1.0pp $418	-0.5pp $336	base $253	+0.5pp $169	+1.0pp $83

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,525
• Closing costs: $9,783
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2424 Summerwood Ct Dunedin, FL	4.0	3.5	2469	$7,900	$3.20	24d	1	0.83mi
3139 Carlos Dr Dunedin, FL	4.0	2.0	2414	$3,400	$1.41	4d	1	1.26mi
2204 Elizabeth Way Dunedin, FL	4.0	3.0	2532	$3,750	$1.48	22d	1	1.48mi
2204 Elizabeth Way Dunedin, FL	4.0	3.0	2800	$3,900	$1.39	24d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $9 · $108/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2025-12-19
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-19
   soldstatus Closed
3. 2025-12-16
   historical $3,035
4. 2025-12-01
   price $326,100
5. 2025-11-08
   price $3,035
6. 2025-11-06
   price $353,800
7. 2025-10-23
   listed $3,233
8. 2025-10-21
   price $388,000
9. 2025-09-30
   listed $418,700 Active
10. 2021-10-21
    soldstatus $160,000
11. 2021-06-16
    status Active
12. 2021-06-11
    price $307,600
13. 2021-05-24
    price $328,300
14. 2021-05-24
    status Active
15. 2021-05-18
    status Pending
16. 2021-04-28
    listed $334,700 Active
17. 2013-11-21
    historical
18. 2013-10-08
    listed $175,000
19. 1993-12-16
    soldstatus $127,000
20. 1988-03-10
    soldstatus $112,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,336 · $778/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,336 · $778/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,842
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,267
• − Property taxes: −$9,336
• − Insurance: −$1,630
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,507
• − Management: −$3,507
• − HOA: −$108
• − Depreciation: −$9,487
• Taxable loss: −$2,001
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$480
• After-tax cash flow: $3,519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dunedin

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #411

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunedin, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 38,171
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 38,171
• Household income: $74,078
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1390.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -515.66%
• Current HPI: 387.4694
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.69%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-97.3% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Sold (MLS) — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Rental Removed $3,035 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $326,100 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $3,035 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $353,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Listed for Rent $3,233 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $388,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Listed $418,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-16 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-11 Price Changed $307,600 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-24 Price Changed $328,300 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-24 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-28 Listed $334,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-08 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $127,000 Public Records
• 1988-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+21.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,336 · +12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.