17166 Smokey Riv · Mono Vista, CA 95370

$195,615

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1992 0.29 ac lot Est $312k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This house will not last long - come and get it before it's gone! Cozy 3 bed, 2 bath home in Upper Crystal Falls that is nestled in the trees and overlooks a beautiful, winding creek. There are multiple heating and air options to keep you comfortable year round. The house is coming with a brand new wooden walkway and awning that is sure to catch your eye. Sit out on the deck and watch for squirrels, deer, and other mountain wildlife! Or enjoy the Crystal Falls HOA amenities which include access to a private gym, tennis court, basketball court, lake, stable, and clubhouse. Call to arrange your showing today!

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Built 1992
• Listed 163 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total of 1 unit
• Financial info: Assessments: Unknown
• HOA & community: Community features include biking

Exterior

• Utilities: Water source: Other; Sewer: Sewer or Septic - Unknown
• Home design: House; Two stories; No Accessory Dwelling Unit
• Construction: Year built source: Other; No common walls
• Exterior features: No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Two levels; Entry on the first level; Has a view
• Laundry & utility: No laundry in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $196k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $900 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $196k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 5.0% in Mono Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#793 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, employment B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Soulsbyville Elementary (town): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #272 of 517 in CA (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,141 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.17%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $312,120
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22407 Red River Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,212 (-1%)	0mo	$385,000	$318	85
22519 Longeway	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+1%)	21mo	$314,000	$255	74
22572 Colorado River Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (-3%)	14mo	$370,000	$311	73
17170 Smokey River Dr	0.02mi	3/1.0	1,164 (-5%)	18mo	$275,000	$236	72
22484 Longeway Rd	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,092 (-11%)	3mo	$305,000	$279	71
22555 Colorado River Dr. South	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,312 (+7%)	15mo	$290,000	$221	70
22376 Red River Dr	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (-3%)	12mo	$379,900	$320	65
22528 E Rhine River Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,340 (+10%)	7mo	$308,000	$230	62
22528 S Colorado Riv	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+14%)	17mo	$330,000	$236	58
22192 Crystal Falls Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,374 (+12%)	11mo	$369,000	$269	49
22071 Fallview Ct	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,120 (-8%)	2mo	$210,000	$188	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $25,716
• Equity at exit: $29,167

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $96,581
• Equity at exit: $16,913

Cash invested: $54,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95370

• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,026
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,081/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $900

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,811

Max offer price $195,615

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,904
• Closing costs: $5,868
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21593 Crystal Falls Dr Sonora, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,950	$2.36	23d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $195,615 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,615 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,615 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,615 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,615 Active 160 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,615 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $195,615 Active 157 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,615 Active 155 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,615 Active 154 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,615 Active 153 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,615 Active 152 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,615 Active 150 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,615 Active 149 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,615 Active 148 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,615 Active 147 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,615 Active 146 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,615 Active 145 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,615 Active 144 DOM
19. 2026-04-16
    price $195,615
20. 2026-01-06
    listed $212,625 Active
21. 2022-04-14
    soldstatus $272,000 614-char remark

    Show marketing remark (614 chars)

    This house will not last long - come and get it before it's gone! Cozy 3 bed, 2 bath home in Upper Crystal Falls that is nestled in the trees and overlooks a beautiful, winding creek. There are multiple heating and air options to keep you comfortable year round. The house is coming with a brand new wooden walkway and awning that is sure to catch your eye. Sit out on the deck and watch for squirrels, deer, and other mountain wildlife! Or enjoy the Crystal Falls HOA amenities which include access to a private gym, tennis court, basketball court, lake, stable, and clubhouse. Call to arrange your showing today!

22. 2022-04-14
    soldstatus $272,000

    Show marketing remark (614 chars)

    This house will not last long - come and get it before it's gone! Cozy 3 bed, 2 bath home in Upper Crystal Falls that is nestled in the trees and overlooks a beautiful, winding creek. There are multiple heating and air options to keep you comfortable year round. The house is coming with a brand new wooden walkway and awning that is sure to catch your eye. Sit out on the deck and watch for squirrels, deer, and other mountain wildlife! Or enjoy the Crystal Falls HOA amenities which include access to a private gym, tennis court, basketball court, lake, stable, and clubhouse. Call to arrange your showing today!

23. 2022-02-09
    listed $269,000 614-char remark

    Show marketing remark (614 chars)

    This house will not last long - come and get it before it's gone! Cozy 3 bed, 2 bath home in Upper Crystal Falls that is nestled in the trees and overlooks a beautiful, winding creek. There are multiple heating and air options to keep you comfortable year round. The house is coming with a brand new wooden walkway and awning that is sure to catch your eye. Sit out on the deck and watch for squirrels, deer, and other mountain wildlife! Or enjoy the Crystal Falls HOA amenities which include access to a private gym, tennis court, basketball court, lake, stable, and clubhouse. Call to arrange your showing today!

24. 2016-12-16
    soldstatus $170,000 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    THE NEW OWNER OF THIS HOME WILL BE ABLE TO ENJOY THE SOUNDS OF THE SEASONAL CREEK,AND BE A MEMBER OF TWO AREA LAKES, TENNIS COURTS, CLUBHOUSE AND STABLE. MOVE IN READY! NICE MASTER ON THE MAIN LEVEL WITH TWO GUEST ROOMS AND BATH ON THE LOWER LEVEL. OPEN FLOOR PLAN FOR ENTERTAINING. ONLY TWO AND A HALF HOURS FROM MOST BAY AREA LOCATIONS...THIS CAN BE A FULL TIME OR VACATION HOME.** Tenant occupied, photos are of the home when it was vacant.

25. 2016-12-16
    soldstatus $170,000

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    THE NEW OWNER OF THIS HOME WILL BE ABLE TO ENJOY THE SOUNDS OF THE SEASONAL CREEK,AND BE A MEMBER OF TWO AREA LAKES, TENNIS COURTS, CLUBHOUSE AND STABLE. MOVE IN READY! NICE MASTER ON THE MAIN LEVEL WITH TWO GUEST ROOMS AND BATH ON THE LOWER LEVEL. OPEN FLOOR PLAN FOR ENTERTAINING. ONLY TWO AND A HALF HOURS FROM MOST BAY AREA LOCATIONS...THIS CAN BE A FULL TIME OR VACATION HOME.** Tenant occupied, photos are of the home when it was vacant.

26. 2016-06-17
    listed $179,900 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    THE NEW OWNER OF THIS HOME WILL BE ABLE TO ENJOY THE SOUNDS OF THE SEASONAL CREEK,AND BE A MEMBER OF TWO AREA LAKES, TENNIS COURTS, CLUBHOUSE AND STABLE. MOVE IN READY! NICE MASTER ON THE MAIN LEVEL WITH TWO GUEST ROOMS AND BATH ON THE LOWER LEVEL. OPEN FLOOR PLAN FOR ENTERTAINING. ONLY TWO AND A HALF HOURS FROM MOST BAY AREA LOCATIONS...THIS CAN BE A FULL TIME OR VACATION HOME.** Tenant occupied, photos are of the home when it was vacant.

27. 2002-04-26
    soldstatus $134,000
28. 1993-05-24
    soldstatus $89,500
29. 1991-09-24
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,081 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,081 · $257/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,957
• − Property taxes: −$3,081
• − Insurance: −$1,776
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,832
• − Management: −$2,832
• − Depreciation: −$5,691
• Taxable income: $8,232
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,976
• After-tax cash flow: $8,824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Soulsbyville Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0637320
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $60,518
• Composite: 30.5/100
• National rank: #6217
• State rank: #272 of 517 in CA

Livability — Mono Vista

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #793
• US rank: #22675

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mono Vista, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,373

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Russian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -322.67%
• Current HPI: 130.9637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+334.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $195,615 CRMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $212,625 CRMLS
• 2022-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $272,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-14 Sold (MLS) $272,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-02-09 Listed $269,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2016-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2016-12-16 Sold (MLS) $170,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2016-06-17 Listed $179,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2002-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $134,000 Public Records
• 1993-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $89,500 Public Records
• 1991-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,081 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.