306 W Danbury Rd W · Kearny, AZ 85137

$190,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,608 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1959 7,069 sqft lot $118/sqft · at area comps Est $181k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 4 bedroom / 2 bath, single-story home with 1 car + garage. Newer vinyl plank floors t/o living areas. Open kitchen w/dining nook, garden window, maple-finish cabinets, tile floors and laminate counters. Roomy living area with ceiling fan. Big primary suite with tiled 3/4 bath. Shady covered patio. Built in woodfired oven. Sprawling & private rear yard, fully fenced and ready for lush garden renovations. Garage will fit a car plus partial conversion at rear that serves as a mancave (or she-shed area) complete with built-in bar top unit. New water heater installed just a few months ago. Newer Roof & HVAC systems under 5 years old.

Key facts

• Tile floors
• Garden window
• Vinyl plank floors

Tags

• VINYL PLANK FLOORS
• OPEN KITCHEN
• GARDEN WINDOW
• MAPLE-FINISH CABINETS
• TILE FLOORS
• LAMINATE COUNTERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#20 in AZ, #4,875 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Ray Unified District (4438) (rural): math 22% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #318 of 501 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $150k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,000 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.15%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,371
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: 4.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
307 W Essex Rd	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,686 (+5%)	6mo	$235,000	$139	76
301 W Fairhaven Rd	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,632 (+2%)	20mo	$159,900	$98	75
302 W Greenwich Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-10%)	1mo	$185,000	$127	72
327 W Essex Rd	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,764 (+10%)	9mo	$184,000	$104	69
412 W Fairhaven Rd	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,711 (+6%)	14mo	$210,000	$123	61
602 S York Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,651 (+3%)	18mo	$172,000	$104	61
345 W Essex Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,757 (+9%)	13mo	$135,000	$77	56
423 W Jamestown Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,489 (-7%)	6mo	$226,000	$152	53
426 W Essex Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,383 (-14%)	3mo	$230,000	$166	50
409 S Mountain View Dr	0.28mi	4/3.0	1,826 (+14%)	13mo	$289,000	$158	49
346 W Greenwich Rd	0.29mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,744 (+8%)	18mo	$192,000	$110	48
504 W Hartford Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,370 (-15%)	14mo	$140,000	$102	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $112,292
• Equity at exit: $171,167

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.08×
• Total profit: $323,497
• Equity at exit: $369,128

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85137

• Home prices YoY: 22.6%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $584/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,423

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $247	-5% $194	+0% $140	+5% $86	+10% $32
Rent	-10% $13	-5% $77	+0% $140	+5% $203	+10% $266
Rate	-1.0pp $236	-0.5pp $188	base $140	+0.5pp $91	+1.0pp $41

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
327 W Fairhaven Rd Kearny, AZ	4.0	1.5	1294	$1,600	$1.24	44d	1	0.20mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $190,000 Pending 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $190,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $190,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-04-18
   price $190,000 654-char remark

   Show marketing remark (654 chars)

   Spacious 4 bedroom / 2 bath, single-story home with 1 car + garage. Newer vinyl plank floors t/o living areas. Open kitchen w/dining nook, garden window, maple-finish cabinets, tile floors and laminate counters. Roomy living area with ceiling fan. Big primary suite with tiled 3/4 bath. Shady covered patio. Built in woodfired oven. Sprawling & private rear yard, fully fenced and ready for lush garden renovations. Garage will fit a car plus partial conversion at rear that serves as a mancave (or she-shed area) complete with built-in bar top unit. New water heater installed just a few months ago. Newer Roof & HVAC systems under 5 years old.

5. 2026-03-27
   listed $200,000 Active 654-char remark

   Show marketing remark (654 chars)

   Spacious 4 bedroom / 2 bath, single-story home with 1 car + garage. Newer vinyl plank floors t/o living areas. Open kitchen w/dining nook, garden window, maple-finish cabinets, tile floors and laminate counters. Roomy living area with ceiling fan. Big primary suite with tiled 3/4 bath. Shady covered patio. Built in woodfired oven. Sprawling & private rear yard, fully fenced and ready for lush garden renovations. Garage will fit a car plus partial conversion at rear that serves as a mancave (or she-shed area) complete with built-in bar top unit. New water heater installed just a few months ago. Newer Roof & HVAC systems under 5 years old.

6. 2024-12-02
   soldstatus $150,000
7. 2024-11-10
   historical
8. 2024-09-11
   status Active
9. 2024-09-10
   historical
10. 2024-08-09
    price $165,000
11. 2024-07-02
    price $175,000
12. 2024-04-03
    price $189,900
13. 2024-03-09
    listed $199,900 Active
14. 2015-05-26
    soldstatus $60,000
15. 2015-01-22
    historical
16. 2014-08-17
    price $69,900
17. 2014-08-03
    listed $79,900 Active
18. 2014-07-23
    historical
19. 2014-05-05
    price $79,900
20. 2014-02-08
    listed $85,000 Active
21. 2012-08-22
    soldstatus $32,500 Closed
22. 2012-02-28
    status Pending
23. 2012-02-19
    listed $32,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $584 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,254 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$670/yr (+$56/mo · 114.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$584
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$1,576
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$378
• After-tax cash flow: $2,056/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ray Unified District (4438)
• NCES district ID: 0406850
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,632
• Composite: 25.45/100
• National rank: #12864
• State rank: #318 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Kearny

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4875

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kearny, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 2,533

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.16%
• Current HPI: 120.15
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+484.6% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $190,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $200,000 ARMLS
• 2024-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2024-11-10 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-09-11 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-09-10 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-08-09 Price Changed $165,000 ARMLS
• 2024-07-02 Price Changed $175,000 ARMLS
• 2024-04-03 Price Changed $189,900 ARMLS
• 2024-03-09 Listed $199,900 ARMLS
• 2015-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2015-01-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2014-08-17 Price Changed $69,900 ARMLS
• 2014-08-03 Listed $79,900 ARMLS
• 2014-07-23 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2014-05-05 Price Changed $79,900 ARMLS
• 2014-02-08 Listed $85,000 ARMLS
• 2012-08-22 Sold (MLS) $32,500 ARMLS
• 2012-02-28 Pending — ARMLS
• 2012-02-19 Listed $32,500 ARMLS

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $584 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.