14468 Ehler Ln · Montgomery, TX 77356

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 14 Days on market

Built 2004 1.50 ac lot $156/sqft · 15% above area Est $165k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• ARV discount +0.7/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape to your own piece of paradise in Montgomery, Texas. This 1.5 acre unrestricted property features a 3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home with a 2023 roof. Enjoy living on a cul-de-sac street and the 30x40 metal building built in 2022 on a concrete slab, with three 10x8 roll up doors and a side steel door. There is also a 28x15 building that would be perfect for a workshop or potential tiny home conversion. Minutes from Lake Conroe and downtown Spring, this unrestricted community setting is ideal for a primary residence or weekend retreat. There is ample land for family activities, gardening or a small farm. Schedule your private showing today and don't miss out on this versatile proper

Key facts

• 30x40 metal building
• Cul-de-sac street
• Concrete slab

Tags

• 1.5 ACRE UNRESTRICTED PROPERTY
• CUL-DE-SAC STREET
• 30X40 METAL BUILDING
• CONCRETE SLAB
• THREE 10X8 ROLL UP DOORS
• 28X15 BUILDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with workshop; Oversized garage; 3 garage spaces; Additional parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Farm property; Built in 2004; Block foundation
• Construction: Cement siding
• Exterior features: Heavily wooded property; Public maintained road; Asphalt road surface; Mobile home allowed; Has additional parcels

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Window unit heating; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling; Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub with shower; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $317 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 2.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1067 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.14%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,900
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: 20.68%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-16,238
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-9,927
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1067
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,902 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,337/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,502

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $424	-5% $370	+0% $317	+5% $263	+10% $209
Rent	-10% $166	-5% $241	+0% $317	+5% $392	+10% $467
Rate	-1.0pp $412	-0.5pp $365	base $317	+0.5pp $267	+1.0pp $217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on marketlisting id $189,900 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-03-16
    listed $199,000 Active 695-char remark
17. 2026-03-09
    historical
18. 2025-11-04
    listed $210,000 Active
19. 2025-10-27
    historical
20. 2025-07-30
    price $219,000
21. 2025-07-07
    listed $224,900 Active
22. 2021-04-01
    soldstatus
23. 2021-03-30
    soldstatus Sold
24. 2021-03-21
    status Pending
25. 2021-03-17
    status Option Pending
26. 2021-02-20
    status Active
27. 2021-02-10
    status Option Pending
28. 2021-01-28
    price $104,900
29. 2021-01-06
    listed $119,000 Active
30. 2020-10-26
    soldstatus Sold
31. 2020-10-26
    soldstatus
32. 2020-10-23
    status Pending
33. 2020-10-22
    status Option Pending
34. 2020-09-28
    listed $74,999 Active
35. 2020-09-28
    soldstatus
36. 2020-09-17
    soldstatus
37. 2006-08-22
    historical
38. 2005-11-07
    listed $24,000
39. 2002-11-21
    historical
40. 2000-10-12
    listed $55,000
41. 1998-10-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,337 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,475 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,138/yr (+$178/mo · 159.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,829
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$1,337
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,826
• − Management: −$1,826
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $728
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$175
• After-tax cash flow: $3,623/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+245.3% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $219,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-07 Listed $224,900 HARMLS
• 2021-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-03-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-03-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-03-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-02-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-02-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-01-28 Price Changed $104,900 HARMLS
• 2021-01-06 Listed $119,000 HARMLS
• 2020-10-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-10-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-10-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-10-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-09-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-09-28 Listed $74,999 HARMLS
• 2020-09-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-08-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-11-07 Listed $24,000 HARMLS
• 2002-11-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2000-10-12 Listed $55,000 HARMLS
• 1998-10-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+21.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,337 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.