1301 Ravenna Pl · Pattison, TX 77423

$249,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,582 sqft · SingleFamily · 60 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,405 sqft lot $158/sqft · 33% below area Est $374k · 33% under $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Bridgeport brings everything together in one comfortable, convenient single-story floor plan. Centered around an airy, open kitchen that overlooks a dining room and a great room, the main living area is spacious and inviting. The lavish primary suite boasts a private bath with a walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a walk-in closet. Adjacent, you’ll find three additional bedrooms, offering ample space for rest and relaxation.

Key facts

• 6,405 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($462/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.4% in Pattison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#876 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 997 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,469 (7.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.66%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $374,468
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -33.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1213 Catalina Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,388 (-12%)	1mo	$235,900	$170	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-44,776
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-61,842
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 997
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,325 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,748/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,276

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $249,900 Pending 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,900 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,900 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-05-06
   price $249,900 437-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   The Bridgeport brings everything together in one comfortable, convenient single-story floor plan. Centered around an airy, open kitchen that overlooks a dining room and a great room, the main living area is spacious and inviting. The lavish primary suite boasts a private bath with a walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a walk-in closet. Adjacent, you'll find three additional bedrooms, offering ample space for rest and relaxation.

5. 2026-05-06
   price $249,900 431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   The Bridgeport brings everything together in one comfortable, convenient single-story floor plan. Centered around an airy, open kitchen that overlooks a dining room and a great room, the main living area is spacious and inviting. The lavish primary suite boasts a private bath with a walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a walk-in closet. Adjacent, you'll find three additional bedrooms, offering ample space for rest and relaxation.

6. 2026-04-02
   listed $259,900 Active 437-char remark

   Show marketing remark (437 chars)

   The Bridgeport brings everything together in one comfortable, convenient single-story floor plan. Centered around an airy, open kitchen that overlooks a dining room and a great room, the main living area is spacious and inviting. The lavish primary suite boasts a private bath with a walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a walk-in closet. Adjacent, you’ll find three additional bedrooms, offering ample space for rest and relaxation.

7. 2026-03-22
   price $259,900 431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   The Bridgeport brings everything together in one comfortable, convenient single-story floor plan. Centered around an airy, open kitchen that overlooks a dining room and a great room, the main living area is spacious and inviting. The lavish primary suite boasts a private bath with a walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a walk-in closet. Adjacent, you'll find three additional bedrooms, offering ample space for rest and relaxation.

8. 2026-03-14
   price $260,100 431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   The Bridgeport brings everything together in one comfortable, convenient single-story floor plan. Centered around an airy, open kitchen that overlooks a dining room and a great room, the main living area is spacious and inviting. The lavish primary suite boasts a private bath with a walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a walk-in closet. Adjacent, you'll find three additional bedrooms, offering ample space for rest and relaxation.

9. 2026-02-26
   listed $259,900 Active 431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   The Bridgeport brings everything together in one comfortable, convenient single-story floor plan. Centered around an airy, open kitchen that overlooks a dining room and a great room, the main living area is spacious and inviting. The lavish primary suite boasts a private bath with a walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a walk-in closet. Adjacent, you'll find three additional bedrooms, offering ample space for rest and relaxation.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,896
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,748
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,232
• − Management: −$2,232
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$3,685
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$884
• After-tax cash flow: $1,346/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern design and open floor plan. It has potential for minor updates to increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Installing new flooring in the bedrooms — New flooring in bedrooms improves comfort and appearance.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Installing new flooring in the bedrooms — New flooring in bedrooms improves comfort and appearance. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pattison

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #15789

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• City population: 18,767
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $249,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Listed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $259,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $260,100 Zillow
• 2026-02-26 Listed $259,900 Zillow