16069 Shannon Way · Grass Valley, CA 95959

$210,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,278 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

0.41 ac lot Est $364k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Home is a fixer and requires Court Approval. Enter at your own risk.

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 75 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located in Echo Ridge Trail subdivision, Nevada City, CA (16069 Shannon Way)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered, enclosed garage with interior access and garage facing side; 2-car garage; Guest parking available; Paved driveway with varying slope (downslope and upslope)
• Utilities: Internet available; Electric: 220 volts (see remarks/other); Sewer: septic system; Water: meter on site, water district service, and well; Irrigation: see remarks
• Home design: Single family residence (custom/semi-custom, ranchette/country style); Fixer condition
• Construction: Composition roof (see remarks)
• Exterior features: Flag lot; No fencing; No private pool or spa

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen and family room combo; Dining space in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Master bedroom with closet and walk-in closet
• Flooring: Flooring: see remarks
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Cooling: see remarks/other; Heating: none listed (see remarks)
• Interior features: Two-story layout; Kitchen open to family room; Family room with attached deck and views; Dining area open to family room and kitchen; Main level includes living room, dining room, family room, kitchen, master bedroom, full bath and street entrance; Lower level includes bedroom(s) and garage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry features: see remarks

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $669 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 2.0% in Grass Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#134 in CA, #4,710 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Nevada Joint Union High (town): math 25% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #201 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 269 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.66%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $364,230
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15461 Shannon Way	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,316 (+3%)	20mo	$375,000	$285	57
11548 Ridge Rd	0.44mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,292 (+1%)	18mo	$255,000	$197	49
319 Vistamont Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,398 (+9%)	23mo	$470,000	$336	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $8,527
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $62,052
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95959

• Active inventory: 269
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,481 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,224/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $669

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,634

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 W Berryhill Dr Grass Valley, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	797	$2,325	$2.92	1d	7	1.37mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $210,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $210,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $210,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $210,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 57 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $210,000 Active 56 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,224 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,596 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$372/yr (+$31/mo · 30.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$1,224
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,382
• − Management: −$2,382
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $4,861
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,167
• After-tax cash flow: $6,863/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nevada Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0626880
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,336
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #4393
• State rank: #201 of 517 in CA

Livability — Grass Valley

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #4710

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• City population: 48,022
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,683
• Household income: $86,524
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 413.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -238.68%
• Current HPI: 209.775
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,224 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.