5016 W Park St · Pasco, WA 99301

$429,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,130 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1960 0.54 ac lot $201/sqft · at area comps Est $443k · at est. ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 291492 Charming, well-maintained home on over half an acre in a quiet, tucked-away setting. Privately accessed via easement, the property offers a peaceful, secluded feel while still being conveniently close to the river, shopping, and highway access. The home features an updated kitchen with granite countertops, soft-close cabinetry, built-in microwave, pantry, recessed and under-cabinet lighting with a brick-style backsplash. Multiple living spaces include two living areas and a spacious family room with bay windows and side-yard access. Interior finishes include tile, laminate, bamboo, and freshly cleaned carpet. A powered workshop with shelving provides space for hobbies or storage. Outside, enjoy mature landscaping, trees for privacy, a gazebo, garden areas, underground sprinklers, exterior lighting timers, and solar accent lighting.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Soft-close cabinetry
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SOFT-CLOSE CABINETRY
• BUILT-IN MICROWAVE
• PANTRY
• RECESSED LIGHTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $429k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-870/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $416k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $335k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $335k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.0% in Pasco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#104 in WA, #1,999 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D-.
• Pasco School District (suburban): math 31% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #242 of 291 in WA (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 705 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 981 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (517 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,352/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($88k/yr) (locally 1556% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($416k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $335,223 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.72%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $442,689
• List price: $429,000
• Delta: -3.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5016 W Park St	0.00mi	3/2.0	2,130 (0%)	0mo	$443,000	$208	100
5201 W Henry Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	2,105 (-1%)	8mo	$707,000	$336	83
5105 W Sylvester St	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,064 (-3%)	9mo	$450,000	$218	78
419 Rd 52	0.24mi	3/2.5	2,250 (+6%)	1mo	$990,000	$440	76
912 Rd. 44	0.41mi	3/2.0	2,140 (+0%)	10mo	$468,000	$219	72
1004 N Road 55	0.30mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,220 (+4%)	8mo	$485,000	$218	63
821 Rd 57 Ct	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,191 (+3%)	9mo	$599,000	$273	62
3909 W Margaret St	0.72mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,088 (-2%)	10mo	$475,000	$227	48
1216 N Rd 56	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,812 (-15%)	8mo	$415,000	$229	47
3908 W Henry St	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,944 (-9%)	5mo	$423,500	$218	38
4209 W Ruby St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,392 (+12%)	11mo	$399,000	$167	32
620 N Rd 39	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,422 (+14%)	7mo	$460,000	$190	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-77,607
• Equity at exit: $63,965

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-87,490
• Equity at exit: $37,092

Cash invested: $120,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99301

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 705
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,352 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax from tax record: −$292 /mo · $3,508/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$704
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,444

Max offer price $416,192

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,250
• Closing costs: $12,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5305 W Jay St Unit 5305 B Pasco, WA	3.0	2.0	1445	$2,195	$1.52	43d	1	0.84mi
5316 W Wernett Rd Unit B Pasco, WA	3.0	2.0	1445	$2,095	$1.45	13d	1	0.89mi
6709 W Octave St Pasco, WA	4.0	2.5	2150	$6,500	$3.02	43d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 855-char remark

   Show marketing remark (855 chars)

   MLS# 291492 Charming, well-maintained home on over half an acre in a quiet, tucked-away setting. Privately accessed via easement, the property offers a peaceful, secluded feel while still being conveniently close to the river, shopping, and highway access. The home features an updated kitchen with granite countertops, soft-close cabinetry, built-in microwave, pantry, recessed and under-cabinet lighting with a brick-style backsplash. Multiple living spaces include two living areas and a spacious family room with bay windows and side-yard access. Interior finishes include tile, laminate, bamboo, and freshly cleaned carpet. A powered workshop with shelving provides space for hobbies or storage. Outside, enjoy mature landscaping, trees for privacy, a gazebo, garden areas, underground sprinklers, exterior lighting timers, and solar accent lighting.

2. 2026-05-01
   price $429,000 855-char remark

   Show marketing remark (855 chars)

   MLS# 291492 Charming, well-maintained home on over half an acre in a quiet, tucked-away setting. Privately accessed via easement, the property offers a peaceful, secluded feel while still being conveniently close to the river, shopping, and highway access. The home features an updated kitchen with granite countertops, soft-close cabinetry, built-in microwave, pantry, recessed and under-cabinet lighting with a brick-style backsplash. Multiple living spaces include two living areas and a spacious family room with bay windows and side-yard access. Interior finishes include tile, laminate, bamboo, and freshly cleaned carpet. A powered workshop with shelving provides space for hobbies or storage. Outside, enjoy mature landscaping, trees for privacy, a gazebo, garden areas, underground sprinklers, exterior lighting timers, and solar accent lighting.

3. 2026-03-23
   listed $439,000 Active 855-char remark

   Show marketing remark (855 chars)

   MLS# 291492 Charming, well-maintained home on over half an acre in a quiet, tucked-away setting. Privately accessed via easement, the property offers a peaceful, secluded feel while still being conveniently close to the river, shopping, and highway access. The home features an updated kitchen with granite countertops, soft-close cabinetry, built-in microwave, pantry, recessed and under-cabinet lighting with a brick-style backsplash. Multiple living spaces include two living areas and a spacious family room with bay windows and side-yard access. Interior finishes include tile, laminate, bamboo, and freshly cleaned carpet. A powered workshop with shelving provides space for hobbies or storage. Outside, enjoy mature landscaping, trees for privacy, a gazebo, garden areas, underground sprinklers, exterior lighting timers, and solar accent lighting.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,508 · $292/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,204 · $350/mo
• Expected delta: +$697/yr (+$58/mo · 19.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 26% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,227
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,031
• − Property taxes: −$3,508
• − Insurance: −$2,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,218
• − Management: −$3,218
• − Depreciation: −$12,480
• Taxable loss: −$8,373
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,009
• After-tax cash flow: $1,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco School District
• NCES district ID: 5306570
• Math proficiency: 31% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,454
• Composite: 33.78/100
• National rank: #10401
• State rank: #242 of 291 in WA

Livability — Pasco

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #1999

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasco, WA
• County: Franklin County · 87,044 people
• City population: 87,044
• Metro: Kennewick-Richland, WA
• Population (ZIP): 87,044
• Household income: $87,951
• Rent vs Own: 28.6% rent · 71.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1556.0

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 108,530 people
• By 2030: 118,705 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 140,053 · +29.0%
• By 2050: 162,360 · +49.6%
• By 2075: 217,667 · +100.6%
• By 2100: 264,533 · +143.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 37% Two or more races 22% Black 2% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 47% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.7) · D 37.4% · R 60.1% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.0pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -22.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.7 2020: R+14.5 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+25.2 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -331.74%
• Current HPI: 284.481
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.99%
• Metro: Kennewick-Richland, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-2.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — PACMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $429,000 PACMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $439,000 PACMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,508 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.