143 County Road 2315 · Dayton, TX 77535

$110,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 984 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 205 Days on market

Built 2005 $112/sqft · 58% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath is on an acre of land. This home has great potential. The property is a diamond in the rough, waiting for the right owner to bring out its true beauty. With a little imagination and some TLC, this home has the possibility to shine like a hidden gem. Don't miss out on the opportunity to turn this house into your home. Contact me for more details and to schedule a showing.

Key facts

• Built 2005
• Listed 205 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $507 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tarkington ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #373 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1209 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $59k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.76%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,286
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -58.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $14,454
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $54,091
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77535

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 1209
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,513 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $782/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $507

Break-even live

Break-even rent $871

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 204 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 203 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 202 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 200 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 196 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 195 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 194 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $110,000 Active 191 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 190 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 189 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 188 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 187 DOM
14. 2026-01-30
    status Active 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    This charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath is on an acre of land. This home has great potential. The property is a diamond in the rough, waiting for the right owner to bring out its true beauty. With a little imagination and some TLC, this home has the possibility to shine like a hidden gem. Don't miss out on the opportunity to turn this house into your home. Contact me for more details and to schedule a showing.

15. 2026-01-30
    price $110,000 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    This charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath is on an acre of land. This home has great potential. The property is a diamond in the rough, waiting for the right owner to bring out its true beauty. With a little imagination and some TLC, this home has the possibility to shine like a hidden gem. Don't miss out on the opportunity to turn this house into your home. Contact me for more details and to schedule a showing.

16. 2026-01-25
    status Pending 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    This charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath is on an acre of land. This home has great potential. The property is a diamond in the rough, waiting for the right owner to bring out its true beauty. With a little imagination and some TLC, this home has the possibility to shine like a hidden gem. Don't miss out on the opportunity to turn this house into your home. Contact me for more details and to schedule a showing.

17. 2026-01-12
    price $140,000 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    This charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath is on an acre of land. This home has great potential. The property is a diamond in the rough, waiting for the right owner to bring out its true beauty. With a little imagination and some TLC, this home has the possibility to shine like a hidden gem. Don't miss out on the opportunity to turn this house into your home. Contact me for more details and to schedule a showing.

18. 2025-11-17
    listed $169,000 Active 406-char remark

    Show marketing remark (406 chars)

    This charming 3 bedroom, 2 bath is on an acre of land. This home has great potential. The property is a diamond in the rough, waiting for the right owner to bring out its true beauty. With a little imagination and some TLC, this home has the possibility to shine like a hidden gem. Don't miss out on the opportunity to turn this house into your home. Contact me for more details and to schedule a showing.

19. 2020-07-21
    soldstatus Sold 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    This is a well taken care of house, a perfect starter home. It sits on an acre of cleared land. Close to Cleveland, or Dayton for convenient shopping. Call today to schedule an appointment to see for yourself!

20. 2020-07-21
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    This is a well taken care of house, a perfect starter home. It sits on an acre of cleared land. Close to Cleveland, or Dayton for convenient shopping. Call today to schedule an appointment to see for yourself!

21. 2020-06-07
    status Pending 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    This is a well taken care of house, a perfect starter home. It sits on an acre of cleared land. Close to Cleveland, or Dayton for convenient shopping. Call today to schedule an appointment to see for yourself!

22. 2020-05-27
    status Option Pending 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    This is a well taken care of house, a perfect starter home. It sits on an acre of cleared land. Close to Cleveland, or Dayton for convenient shopping. Call today to schedule an appointment to see for yourself!

23. 2020-03-28
    status Active 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    This is a well taken care of house, a perfect starter home. It sits on an acre of cleared land. Close to Cleveland, or Dayton for convenient shopping. Call today to schedule an appointment to see for yourself!

24. 2020-03-23
    status Option Pending 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    This is a well taken care of house, a perfect starter home. It sits on an acre of cleared land. Close to Cleveland, or Dayton for convenient shopping. Call today to schedule an appointment to see for yourself!

25. 2020-02-20
    status Active 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    This is a well taken care of house, a perfect starter home. It sits on an acre of cleared land. Close to Cleveland, or Dayton for convenient shopping. Call today to schedule an appointment to see for yourself!

26. 2020-02-12
    status Option Pending 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    This is a well taken care of house, a perfect starter home. It sits on an acre of cleared land. Close to Cleveland, or Dayton for convenient shopping. Call today to schedule an appointment to see for yourself!

27. 2020-01-16
    listed $98,900 Active 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    This is a well taken care of house, a perfect starter home. It sits on an acre of cleared land. Close to Cleveland, or Dayton for convenient shopping. Call today to schedule an appointment to see for yourself!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $782 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,013 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,231/yr (+$103/mo · 157.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,152
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$782
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,452
• − Management: −$1,452
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $4,554
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,093
• After-tax cash flow: $4,993/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tarkington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842210
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,895
• Composite: 35.02/100
• National rank: #5044
• State rank: #373 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 82,189
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,504
• Household income: $84,497
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 321.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.61%
• Current HPI: 229.0925
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2020-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-07-21 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-06-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-05-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-03-28 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-03-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-02-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2020-02-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-01-16 Listed $98,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $782 · -64.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.