21900 SE 242nd St Unit E-1 · Maple Valley, WA 98038

$439,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,273 sqft · Condo public records · 91 Days on market

Built 2007 $346/sqft · at area comps Est $453k · at est. $561/mo HOA · 15% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * BUYER INCENTIVE! EXCLUSIVE FINANCING INCENTIVE AVAILABLE THIS WEEKEND ONLY — SELLER OFFERING A 3% CREDIT THAT MAY BE USED TOWARD A TEMPORARY OR PERMANENT RATE BUYDOWN FOR IMPROVED MONTHLY AFFORDABILITY. A RARE OPPORTUNITY TO SECURE ENHANCED PURCHASING POWER AND LONG-TERM VALUE ON THIS EXCEPTIONAL HOME. * * Welcome to Trail at Tiburon – Your Perfect Maple Valley Retreat! Located in the heart of Maple Valley’s sought-after gated community, this condo offers a rare combination of comfort, convenience, and investment potential. Step inside to find 2 generously sized bedrooms, including a primary suite with a full en suite bathroom and access to your personal balcony&md

Key facts

• Gated community
• Private garage
• Personal balcony

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• PERSONAL BALCONY
• PRIVATE GARAGE
• TAHOMA SCHOOL DISTRICT
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-416 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $366k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $384k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $366k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in Maple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#24 in WA, #461 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Tahoma School District (suburban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #10 of 291 in WA (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,555 units permitted in King County in 2024 (7,119 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($152k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• King County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($400k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $241k; list at $440k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $366,403 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.06%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $452,751
• List price: $439,950
• Delta: -2.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.76% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-98,424
• Equity at exit: $65,598

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-122,373
• Equity at exit: $38,039

Cash invested: $123,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98038

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,837 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax from tax record: −$396 /mo · $4,750/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$561
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$806
• Net cashflow: $-416

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,364

Max offer price $366,403

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,988
• Closing costs: $13,198
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24212 224th Ave SE Unit 4 Maple Valley, WA	2.0	2.0	1320	$5,400	$4.09	44d	1	0.33mi
24202 224th Ave SE Unit 3 Maple Valley, WA	2.0	2.0	1320	$5,400	$4.09	44d	1	0.33mi
22435 SE 240th St Maple Valley, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1004	$2,425	$2.41	2d	5	0.43mi
21900 SE Wax Rd Maple Valley, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	808	$2,052	$2.54	2d	12	0.47mi
24116 235th Ave SE Maple Valley, WA	3.0	3.0	1680	$3,272	$1.95	24d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $561 · $6,732/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $439,950 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $439,950 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,950 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,950 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,950 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $449,950 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $449,950 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $449,950 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $449,950 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $449,950 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $449,950 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $449,950 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $449,950 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-03-27
    status Active
15. 2026-03-19
    status Pending
16. 2026-03-12
    listed $449,950 Active
17. 2015-07-02
    soldstatus $241,000 Sold
18. 2015-07-02
    soldstatus $241,000
19. 2015-06-04
    status Pending
20. 2015-04-13
    status Pending Inspection
21. 2014-12-04
    price $235,000
22. 2014-11-06
    listed $242,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,750 · $396/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,750 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,644
• − Property taxes: −$4,750
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,683
• − Management: −$3,683
• − HOA: −$6,732
• − Depreciation: −$12,799
• Taxable loss: −$12,451
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,988
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,008/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tahoma School District
• NCES district ID: 5308760
• Math proficiency: 68% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $94,834
• Composite: 66.41/100
• National rank: #925
• State rank: #10 of 291 in WA

Livability — Maple Valley

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #461

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maple Valley, WA
• County: King County · 2,251,916 people
• City population: 37,324
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 37,324
• Household income: $152,261
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 580.0

Population outlook (King County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,576,485 people
• By 2030: 2,803,316 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 3,255,921 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 3,706,444 · +43.9%
• By 2075: 4,746,063 · +84.2%
• By 2100: 5,407,730 · +109.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Asian 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Italian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · King

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.7) · D 74.2% · R 22.5% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 51.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.7 2020: D+52.7 2016: D+50.4 2012: D+39.9 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -588.79%
• Current HPI: 310.7428
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.76%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+85.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $449,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $241,000 Public Records
• 2015-07-02 Sold (MLS) $241,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-04 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-13 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-04 Price Changed $235,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-06 Listed $242,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,750 · -6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.