1218 Express Dr · Belleville, IL 62223

$115,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 991 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1959 10,454 sqft lot Est $148k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Handyman special! This all-brick ranch home is situated on a level, fenced lot and includes a work shed and a full basement. The home features three bedrooms and one and a half bathrooms, with updated windows, a spacious living room, and an eat-in kitchen. The lower level boasts a large living room with a brick fireplace and ample storage space. This charming brick home has been well-maintained but needs some tender loving care (TLC). The property will be sold as-is, offering great potential for the right buyer.

Key facts

• All brick ranch
• Updated windows
• Full basement

Tags

• ALL BRICK RANCH
• FENCED LOT
• WORK SHED
• FULL BASEMENT
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• LARGE LIVING ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: One-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One half bathroom (lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Basement with partial finish, full bath, and storage space; Basement fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.6% in Belleville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#142 in IL, #2,604 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-.
• Belleville Twp Hsd 201 (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #308 of 620 in IL (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Belleville High School-West (math 19% / reading 26%, grade F, #317 of 693 statewide, top 46%, 2,234 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.32%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $147,659
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1218 Express Dr	0.00mi	3/1.5	991 (0%)	1mo	$115,000	$116	93
1005 Brentmoor Dr	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,001 (+1%)	13mo	$145,000	$145	64
13 Chamberlain Ct	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,110 (+12%)	1mo	$165,000	$149	59
6100 N Belt W	0.69mi	3/1.0	974 (-2%)	2mo	$169,900	$174	56
30 Brittany Ln	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,082 (+9%)	7mo	$169,900	$157	49
412 Longview Dr	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,120 (+13%)	5mo	$190,000	$170	49
424 Oliver Lee Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	910 (-8%)	2mo	$160,000	$176	48
408 Southgate Dr	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,068 (+8%)	2mo	$159,500	$149	46
928 Werner Rd	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (+11%)	13mo	$149,900	$136	44
22 Briarwood Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+11%)	12mo	$159,900	$145	39
312 Longview Dr	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,116 (+13%)	11mo	$177,500	$159	37
6009 N Belt W	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,116 (+13%)	13mo	$158,500	$142	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $69,506
• Equity at exit: $99,430

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.06×
• Total profit: $195,253
• Equity at exit: $210,135

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62223

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,183 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,366/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $968

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7235 Westfield Plaza Dr Belleville, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0	795	$975	$1.23	2d	1	0.37mi
6105 W Washington St Belleville, IL	3.0	1.5	1120	$1,575	$1.41	23d	1	0.81mi
219 Freedom Dr Unit 232-Q Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	936	$895	$0.96	17d	1	1.28mi
219 Freedom Dr Unit 228-G Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	936	$895	$0.96	4d	1	1.28mi
219 Freedom Dr Unit 228-P Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	936	$970	$1.04	23d	1	1.29mi
219 Freedom Dr Unit 232-B Belleville, IL	2.0	1.0	936	$895	$0.96	23d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $115,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,366 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,988 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: +$622/yr (+$52/mo · 45.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,366
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,135
• − Management: −$1,135
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $193
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$46
• After-tax cash flow: $1,988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belleville Twp Hsd 201
• NCES district ID: 1705640
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,064
• Composite: 22.39/100
• National rank: #8115
• State rank: #308 of 620 in IL

Livability — Belleville

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2604

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Clair County · 169,691 people
• City population: 47,407
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 16,269
• Household income: $73,700
• Rent vs Own: 23.6% rent · 76.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 656.0

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 250,366 people
• By 2030: 240,511 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 217,391 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 192,699 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 140,637 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 100,499 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 53.0% · R 45.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.50%
• Current HPI: 259.15
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $115,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,366 · -3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.