Jefferson Plan · Dade City, FL 33525

$342,840

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,463 sqft · SingleFamily · 154 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home boasts a modern layout with an open-concept floorplan consisting of a stylish kitchen, dining room and family room on the first floor. A convenient bedroom is located toward the back of the home, perfect as a guest suite or home office. Five additional bedrooms can be found upstairs, including the peaceful owner's suite, all surrounding a versatile loft space.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 153 days

🏗️ New construction. The $342,840 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $375,350.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $343k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-472 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Centennial Elementary School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,223 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 611 students, 70% FRL); Centennial Middle School (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #368 of 571 statewide, top 65%, 648 students, 72% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 48% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1044 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 33d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,686/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($302k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $268,554 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.39%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $375,350
• List price: $342,840
• Delta: -9.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12041 Fallow Down Dr	0.27mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (+6%)	2mo	$354,990	$136	71
12014 Fallow Down Dr	0.26mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (+6%)	3mo	$369,990	$142	71
12013 Fallow Down Dr	0.25mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,077 (-16%)	2mo	$327,990	$158	57
38519 Honeysuckle Dr	0.30mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,609 (+6%)	34mo	$373,990	$143	51
38457 Honeysuckle Dr	0.36mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,609 (+6%)	36mo	$373,990	$143	48
11708 Judicial Ct	0.38mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,609 (+6%)	35mo	$376,990	$144	47
38419 Honeysuckle	0.40mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,609 (+6%)	36mo	$375,990	$144	46
38497 Honeysuckle Dr	0.32mi	5/4.0 (-1)	2,760 (+12%)	34mo	$379,990	$138	36
11805 Carmen Ave	0.96mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,302 (-6%)	18mo	$369,000	$160	34
38443 Honeysuckle	0.38mi	5/4.0 (-1)	2,776 (+13%)	36mo	$378,990	$137	32
12426 Hilltop Farms Dr	0.74mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,980 (+21%)	25mo	$430,000	$144	16

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-90,815
• Equity at exit: $55,966

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-117,435
• Equity at exit: $32,453

Cash invested: $105,098 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 60 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 120.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $313,565 ($128/sqft)
• Median days on market: 29 d
• This list price: 62% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +19.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1044
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,686 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,968
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$469 /mo · $5,630/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $-472

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,283

Max offer price $306,995

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-213	-5% $-343	+0% $-472	+5% $-602	+10% $-732
Rent	-10% $-685	-5% $-578	+0% $-472	+5% $-366	+10% $-260
Rate	-1.0pp $-283	-0.5pp $-377	base $-472	+0.5pp $-570	+1.0pp $-669

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,838
• Closing costs: $11,261
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11851 Noble Chase Path Dade City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,400	$1.03	67d	1	0.05mi
11893 Noble Chase Path Dade City, FL	6.0	3.0	2463	$2,500	$1.02	32d	1	0.09mi
11913 Noble Chase Path Dade City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,400	$1.03	10d	1	0.11mi
11921 Noble Chase Path Dade City, FL	6.0	3.0	2463	$2,500	$1.02	32d	1	0.12mi
38459 Colwell Ct Dade City, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–4.0	1988	$2,388	$1.20	0d	14	0.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: 337190

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan (Jefferson)
• Exterior features: Living area of 2463

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Jefferson (new construction)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $342,840 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $342,840 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   pricedays on market $342,840 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $337,840 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $337,840 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   pricedays on market $337,840 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $336,590 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   pricedays on market $336,590 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   pricedays on market $331,090 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    price $329,840 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $326,840 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $326,840 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $326,840 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-09-06
    price $326,090 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $325,090 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $325,090 Active 134 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $325,090 Active 133 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    pricedays on market $324,840 Active 130 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $324,090 Active 129 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    price $324,090 Active 128 DOM
21. 2026-08-29
    days on market $323,590 Active 128 DOM
22. 2026-08-28
    days on market $323,590 Active 127 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $323,590 Active 125 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $323,590 Active 124 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $323,590 Active 123 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $323,590 Active 122 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $323,590 Active 121 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $323,590 Active 119 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $323,590 Active 118 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $323,590 Active 117 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $323,590 Active 116 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $323,590 Active 115 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $323,590 Active 114 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    pricedays on market $323,590 Active 113 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $323,090 Active 112 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $323,090 Active 111 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $323,090 Active 110 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    price $323,090 Active 109 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $322,590 Active 109 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $322,590 Active 108 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $322,590 Active 107 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $322,590 Active 105 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $322,590 Active 104 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $322,590 Active 103 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $322,590 Active 102 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $322,590 Active 99 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $322,590 Active 97 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $322,590 Active 96 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    pricedays on market $322,590 Active 94 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $314,590 Active 92 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,226
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,025
• − Property taxes: −$5,630
• − Insurance: −$1,877
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,578
• − Management: −$2,578
• − Depreciation: −$10,919
• Taxable loss: −$12,382
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,972
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,697/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This new two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a modern layout with an open-concept floorplan and ample bedrooms, making it a great investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Centennial Elementary School D- FL #1,223/2,144 Nat'l #15,452/41,679 Middle Centennial Middle School F FL #368/571 Nat'l #6,005/14,009 High Pasco High School F FL #296/667 Nat'l #8,112/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dade City, FL
• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 21,077
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

---

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: 337190

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan (Jefferson)
• Exterior features: Living area of 2463

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Jefferson (new construction)