2371 Pond Creek Rd · Belfry, KY 41543

$60,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,242 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1960 5,663 sqft lot Est $41k · 46% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a Fannie Mae HomePath Property. This property has been placed in an upcoming online event. All bids should be submitted at www. xome.com/auctions (void where prohibited) All properties are subject to a 3% buyer's premium and bidding is pursuant to the Xome Auction Participation Agreement. Please contact listing agent for commission and property details. "

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1960

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Fenced yard

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring; Total of 5 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($456/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#374 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, housing F.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belfry Elementary (math 27% / reading 40%, grade F, #334 of 676 statewide, top 50%, 592 students, 68% FRL); Belfry Middle School (math 27% / reading 44%, grade F, #94 of 217 statewide, top 44%, 349 students, 75% FRL); Belfry High School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 531 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $60k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,100 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.18%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $40,986
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
415 Pinsonfork Rd	0.57mi	2/1.0	1,200 (-3%)	9mo	$40,000	$33	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $6,760
• Equity at exit: $23,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $25,081
• Equity at exit: $34,034

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41543

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,044 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $246/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $996

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $72	-5% $55	+0% $38	+5% $21	+10% $4
Rent	-10% $-44	-5% $-3	+0% $38	+5% $79	+10% $120
Rate	-1.0pp $68	-0.5pp $53	base $38	+0.5pp $22	+1.0pp $7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $60,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $60,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $60,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 9 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    listed $60,000 Active
18. 2024-03-04
    soldstatus $15,000 371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (371 chars)

    This is a Fannie Mae HomePath Property. This property has been placed in an upcoming online event. All bids should be submitted at www. xome.com/auctions (void where prohibited) All properties are subject to a 3% buyer's premium and bidding is pursuant to the Xome Auction Participation Agreement. Please contact listing agent for commission and property details. "

19. 2023-12-18
    price $19,900
20. 2023-11-14
    price $22,500
21. 2023-10-12
    listed $27,500 Active
22. 2005-09-01
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $246 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $516 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: +$270/yr (+$23/mo · 109.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$246
• − Insurance: −$5,418
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,002
• − Management: −$1,002
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable loss: −$248
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$60
• After-tax cash flow: $516/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pike County
• NCES district ID: 2104800
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $32,601
• Composite: 26.14/100
• National rank: #7276
• State rank: #98 of 165 in KY

Livability — Belfry

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #374
• US rank: #17694

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 460

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,108 people
• By 2030: 51,235 · -7.0%
• By 2040: 43,573 · -20.9%
• By 2050: 36,797 · -33.2%
• By 2075: 24,330 · -55.9%
• By 2100: 15,611 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Pacific Islander 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 16.8% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.99%
• Current HPI: 121.3702
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+71.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $60,000 EKAR
• 2024-03-04 Sold (MLS) $15,000 EKAR
• 2023-12-18 Price Changed $19,900 EKAR
• 2023-11-14 Price Changed $22,500 EKAR
• 2023-10-12 Listed $27,500 EKAR
• 2005-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $246 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.