448 Forbush Ave · Berlin, NH 03570

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,108 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1917 10,018 sqft lot Est $123k · 34% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This will make a great second home or starter home. The mortgage payment would be less than paying rent! Spacious 6 room home, 3 bedrooms, 1 bath located on a large corner lot. ATV from home to the trails.

Key facts

• Corner double lot
• Atv access
• Scenic surroundings

Tags

• CORNER DOUBLE LOT
• ATV ACCESS
• SCENIC SURROUNDINGS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking (dirt)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 100 Amp service with circuit breakers; High-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Multi-level home; Existing construction; Facing information not provided; Entry level not provided
• Construction: Built in 1917; Wood frame with vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Mountain views; Dirt driveway; Public road frontage

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot air heat
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Unfinished walkout basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $84 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (0.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (0.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#67 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Berlin School District (town): math 24% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #91 of 98 in NH (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Coos County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Coos County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $165k implies a 237% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $163,741 (0.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.18%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $122,988
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
407 Coos St	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,064 (-4%)	2mo	$195,000	$183	84
630 Howland St	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,123 (+1%)	13mo	$215,000	$191	81
324 Coos St	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,088 (-2%)	10mo	$179,890	$165	78
642 Howland St	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,206 (+9%)	4mo	$119,000	$99	77
398 Burgess St	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,167 (+5%)	6mo	$75,000	$64	53
579 Burgess St	0.56mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,081 (-2%)	16mo	$120,000	$111	52
479 Burgess St	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,219 (+10%)	2mo	$136,000	$112	51
85 Grafton St	0.59mi	3/1.0	968 (-13%)	3mo	$30,000	$31	48
448 Burgess St	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,123 (+1%)	19mo	$124,000	$110	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $95,282
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.99×
• Total profit: $276,516
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03570

• Home prices YoY: 14.3%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,637 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$276 /mo · $3,306/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-12
   listed $165,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,306 · $276/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,452 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: +$146/yr (+$12/mo · 4.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥85°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,649
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$3,306
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,572
• − Management: −$1,572
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$1,668
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$400
• After-tax cash flow: $1,409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Berlin School District
• NCES district ID: 3301860
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $37,494
• Composite: 22.5/100
• National rank: #8095
• State rank: #91 of 98 in NH

Livability — Berlin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #11665

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Berlin, NH
• City population: 9,473
• Population (ZIP): 9,473

Population outlook (Coos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,912 people
• By 2030: 29,872 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 27,449 · -11.2%
• By 2050: 25,049 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 19,584 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 13,818 · -55.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 21% German 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 8% Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Coos

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 42.7% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.1pp toward R · 2008: 18.3pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+5.9 2016: R+9.1 2012: D+17.6 2008: D+18.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.16%
• Current HPI: 440.9127
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+371.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $165,000 PrimeMLS
• 2020-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-19 Sold (MLS) $49,000 PrimeMLS
• 2020-11-04 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2020-09-23 Listed $49,900 PrimeMLS
• 2003-12-09 Sold (MLS) $31,000 PrimeMLS
• 2003-03-06 Listed $35,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,306 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.