194 Squaw Trl · Ruidoso, NM 88345

$99,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 704 sqft · SingleFamily · 337 Days on market

Built 1971 Poor condition 0.28 ac lot ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this Fixer Upper in the Mountains! This cabin built in the 70's has enormous potential for someone looking for a project to make into their own mountain get away! It's located just outside of the Ruidoso city limits, but very close to the midtown shopping district. There are some treed hillside views from the back deck and the home is located off a private drive. Due to the location of the home, there are no utilities other than electric currently. A septic system would be needed, currently it only has a composting toilet. As for water, the home has an external cistern that has to be filled or a water well could be drilled if desired. No city water available to this location. Home being sold AS-IS. Main level is studio style with a separate bedroom below. Check it out!

Key facts

• External cistern
• Treed hillside views
• Private drive

Tags

• TREED HILLSIDE VIEWS
• PRIVATE DRIVE
• EXTERNAL CISTERN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $294 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#40 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Ruidoso Municipal Schools (town): math 16% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 29 in NM (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 593 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 92 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lincoln County population projected at -35% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 337 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 337 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.62%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $2,565
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $26,433
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88345

• Active inventory: 593
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,246 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $874

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $363	-5% $329	+0% $294	+5% $260	+10% $225
Rent	-10% $196	-5% $245	+0% $294	+5% $343	+10% $393
Rate	-1.0pp $344	-0.5pp $320	base $294	+0.5pp $268	+1.0pp $242

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Apache Hills Dr Unit A Ruidoso, NM	2.0	1.0	726	$1,200	$1.65	44d	1	0.90mi
108 Apache Hills Dr Unit A heuristic Ruidoso, NM	2.0	1.0	726	$1,200	$1.65	25d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,900 Active 337 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,900 Active 336 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,900 Active 335 DOM
4. 2026-04-09
   price $99,900 790-char remark

   Show marketing remark (790 chars)

   Check out this Fixer Upper in the Mountains! This cabin built in the 70's has enormous potential for someone looking for a project to make into their own mountain get away! It's located just outside of the Ruidoso city limits, but very close to the midtown shopping district. There are some treed hillside views from the back deck and the home is located off a private drive. Due to the location of the home, there are no utilities other than electric currently. A septic system would be needed, currently it only has a composting toilet. As for water, the home has an external cistern that has to be filled or a water well could be drilled if desired. No city water available to this location. Home being sold AS-IS. Main level is studio style with a separate bedroom below. Check it out!

5. 2026-03-24
   status Active 790-char remark

   Show marketing remark (790 chars)

   Check out this Fixer Upper in the Mountains! This cabin built in the 70's has enormous potential for someone looking for a project to make into their own mountain get away! It's located just outside of the Ruidoso city limits, but very close to the midtown shopping district. There are some treed hillside views from the back deck and the home is located off a private drive. Due to the location of the home, there are no utilities other than electric currently. A septic system would be needed, currently it only has a composting toilet. As for water, the home has an external cistern that has to be filled or a water well could be drilled if desired. No city water available to this location. Home being sold AS-IS. Main level is studio style with a separate bedroom below. Check it out!

6. 2026-03-19
   historical 790-char remark

   Show marketing remark (790 chars)

   Check out this Fixer Upper in the Mountains! This cabin built in the 70's has enormous potential for someone looking for a project to make into their own mountain get away! It's located just outside of the Ruidoso city limits, but very close to the midtown shopping district. There are some treed hillside views from the back deck and the home is located off a private drive. Due to the location of the home, there are no utilities other than electric currently. A septic system would be needed, currently it only has a composting toilet. As for water, the home has an external cistern that has to be filled or a water well could be drilled if desired. No city water available to this location. Home being sold AS-IS. Main level is studio style with a separate bedroom below. Check it out!

7. 2025-06-24
   listed $130,000 Active 790-char remark

   Show marketing remark (790 chars)

   Check out this Fixer Upper in the Mountains! This cabin built in the 70's has enormous potential for someone looking for a project to make into their own mountain get away! It's located just outside of the Ruidoso city limits, but very close to the midtown shopping district. There are some treed hillside views from the back deck and the home is located off a private drive. Due to the location of the home, there are no utilities other than electric currently. A septic system would be needed, currently it only has a composting toilet. As for water, the home has an external cistern that has to be filled or a water well could be drilled if desired. No city water available to this location. Home being sold AS-IS. Main level is studio style with a separate bedroom below. Check it out!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,955
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,196
• − Management: −$1,196
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $2,062
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$495
• After-tax cash flow: $3,035/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This fixer-upper cabin in the mountains requires extensive renovations to improve its condition and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — visible wear and tear
• Major exterior siding — missing or damaged panels
• Major kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Major bathroom fixtures — outdated and small
• Major HVAC unit — outdated and inefficient
• Major landscaping — bare ground and no landscaping

Value-add opportunities

• Both new roof — improves safety and appearance
• Both new exterior siding — enhances curb appeal and durability
• Both new kitchen cabinets — modernizes and increases functionality
• Both new bathroom fixtures — increases functionality and appeal
• Both new HVAC unit — improves comfort and energy efficiency
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · visible wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · missing or damaged panels	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen cabinets · dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · outdated and small	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC unit · outdated and inefficient	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · bare ground and no landscaping	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both new roof — improves safety and appearance ↑
• Both new exterior siding — enhances curb appeal and durability ↑
• Both new kitchen cabinets — modernizes and increases functionality ↑
• Both new bathroom fixtures — increases functionality and appeal ↑
• Both new HVAC unit — improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ruidoso Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502310
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $44,094
• Composite: 31.68/100
• National rank: #5925
• State rank: #14 of 29 in NM

Livability — Ruidoso

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #11996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lincoln County · 7,835 people
• City population: 7,835
• Metro: Ruidoso, NM
• Population (ZIP): 7,835
• Household income: $53,971
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 156.0

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,903 people
• By 2030: 15,556 · -8.0%
• By 2040: 13,064 · -22.7%
• By 2050: 10,991 · -35.0%
• By 2075: 7,619 · -54.9%
• By 2100: 5,966 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Native American 1% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Danish 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.5) · D 29.8% · R 68.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -25.4pp · 2024: -38.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.5 2020: R+36.4 2016: R+40.2 2012: R+32.7 2008: R+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.17%
• Current HPI: 141.9549
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ruidoso, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-23.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $99,900 RLCAR
• 2026-03-24 Relisted — RLCAR
• 2026-03-19 Delisted — RLCAR
• 2025-06-24 Listed $130,000 RLCAR