30 Lakeway St · Panorama Village, TX 77304

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Condo public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1970 $84/sqft · 20% below area Est $156k · 20% under $150/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent investment opportunity! This package includes four townhomes being sold together for $425,000. The property features two 2-bedroom, 2.5-bath units and two 1-bedroom, 1-bath units, offering a strong rental mix for investors. Each unit provides functional layouts with comfortable living spaces and private bedrooms. Ideal for investors looking to expand their rental portfolio or generate steady income from multiple units in one purchase. Convenient location with easy access to nearby shopping, dining, and major roadways. All four units must be sold together as a package. MLS #56768818, #33458121, #92082984, and #6707499. ALL UNITS CURRENTLY OCCUPIED.

Key facts

• Strong rental mix
• Private bedrooms
• Convenient location

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• STRONG RENTAL MIX
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUTS
• COMFORTABLE LIVING SPACES
• PRIVATE BEDROOMS
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.9% in Panorama Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#851 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 746 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.21%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $156,154
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -19.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-9,665
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-6,774
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77304

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 746
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,641 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,390/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,338

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27 Lakeway St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.5	1500	$1,400	$0.93	13d	1	0.03mi
350 Rolling Hills Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1808	$1,750	$0.97	24d	1	0.65mi
1560 League Line Rd Conroe, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	869	$2,045	$2.35	21d	5	0.72mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 1593 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1313	$2,250	$1.71	44d	1	0.75mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 1597 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1123	$2,014	$1.79	44d	1	0.75mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 1617 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,554	$1.47	10d	1	0.75mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 1583 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1123	$2,014	$1.79	13d	1	0.75mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 3228 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,113	$1.47	3d	1	0.75mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 2228 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,522	$1.44	3d	1	0.75mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 2174 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1123	$1,981	$1.76	17d	1	0.75mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 3174 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,145	$1.49	10d	1	0.75mi
8918 Oval Glass St Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,835	$1.17	5d	1	0.81mi
1510 League Line Rd Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1089	$1,758	$1.61	2d	18	0.83mi
1575 League Line Rd Conroe, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$1,786	$1.78	2d	14	0.93mi
2205 Highland Hills Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,819	$1.22	44d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $125,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-03-13
    listed $125,000 Active 665-char remark

    Show marketing remark (665 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity! This package includes four townhomes being sold together for $425,000. The property features two 2-bedroom, 2.5-bath units and two 1-bedroom, 1-bath units, offering a strong rental mix for investors. Each unit provides functional layouts with comfortable living spaces and private bedrooms. Ideal for investors looking to expand their rental portfolio or generate steady income from multiple units in one purchase. Convenient location with easy access to nearby shopping, dining, and major roadways. All four units must be sold together as a package. MLS #56768818, #33458121, #92082984, and #6707499. ALL UNITS CURRENTLY OCCUPIED.

15. 2021-11-23
    soldstatus
16. 2020-02-06
    soldstatus
17. 2017-02-07
    soldstatus
18. 1991-07-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,390 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,390 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,390
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,575
• − Management: −$1,575
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,087
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$261
• After-tax cash flow: $2,614/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Panorama Village

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #851
• US rank: #15333

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panorama Village, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,225
• Household income: $80,425
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2233.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.02%
• Current HPI: 209.516
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2021-11-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-02-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-02-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,390 · -3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.