405 W James Ave · Mertzon, TX 76941

$65,000

2 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,498 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1985 0.69 ac lot ↓ 59% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 405 W James Ave in the quiet town of Mertzon, TX! Sitting on nearly three-quarters of an acre, this home offers plenty of space both inside and out. Whether you're looking for room to spread out, start a garden, or just enjoy small-town living, this property has it all! The layout is comfortable and functional, perfect for families, with generous living space and a nice-sized yard that's great for kids, pets, or weekend gatherings. Located in the highly regarded Irion County school district, this home is a great option for anyone wanting quality education in a close-knit community.

Key facts

• Close-knit community
• Nice-sized yard
• 0.69 acre lot

Tags

• GENEROUS LIVING SPACE
• NICE-SIZED YARD
• CLOSE-KNIT COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $473 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#540 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Irion County ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #272 of 1,141 in TX (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $941 appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Irion County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.21%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $238,182
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 W James Ave	0.00mi	2/4.0	1,498 (0%)	2mo	$65,000	$43	98
301 W Duncan Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,348 (-10%)	0mo	$215,000	$159	55
301 N 1st St	0.55mi	3/4.0 (+1)	1,370 (-8%)	1mo	$260,000	$190	54
327 N Broadway St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,632 (+9%)	20mo	$60,000	$37	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $32,846
• Equity at exit: $23,719

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.48×
• Total profit: $81,608
• Equity at exit: $32,739

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76941

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,218 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,451/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $473

Break-even live

Break-even rent $619

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-15
   soldstatus
2. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-25
   price $65,000
4. 2026-02-19
   listed $100,000 Active
5. 2025-10-09
   price $125,000
6. 2025-08-26
   price $135,000
7. 2025-07-22
   price $145,000
8. 2025-07-17
   status Active
9. 2025-07-11
   status Pending
10. 2025-07-08
    listed $160,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,451 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,451 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,617
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,451
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,169
• − Management: −$1,169
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $4,970
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,193
• After-tax cash flow: $4,488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Irion County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830360
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $51,367
• Composite: 46.9/100
• National rank: #5180
• State rank: #272 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Mertzon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #10515

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mertzon, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,216

Population outlook (Irion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,467 people
• By 2030: 1,433 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 1,363 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 1,287 · -12.3%
• By 2075: 1,081 · -26.3%
• By 2100: 780 · -46.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 26%

Political lean MEDSL · Irion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.6) · D 12.1% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.8pp toward R · 2008: -58.8pp · 2024: -75.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.6 2020: R+71.9 2016: R+75.0 2012: R+70.6 2008: R+58.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Current HPI: 139.9318
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-59.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-03-30 Pending — SAAR TX
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $65,000 SAAR TX
• 2026-02-19 Listed $100,000 SAAR TX
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $125,000 SAAR TX
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $135,000 SAAR TX
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $145,000 SAAR TX
• 2025-07-17 Relisted — SAAR TX
• 2025-07-11 Pending — SAAR TX
• 2025-07-08 Listed $160,000 SAAR TX

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,451 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.