3912 Cynthia Ln · Wichita Falls, TX 76302

$184,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,461 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1980

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful home on a corner lot features 2 living areas, a one-car attached garage, new flooring and Stainmaster carpet throughout the home, built-in shelves in closets, and plenty of storage space. The remodeled kitchen of this home features plenty of hardwood cabinet space, a breakfast bar, a dishwasher, a free-stand range oven, & pantry. The exterior of this home features a privacy fenced yard, a large patio, a concrete parking pad, marvelous landscaping, and two 275 gallon rainwater cisterns.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1980
• Listed 3 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Exterior features: Residential single-family property

Interior

• Interior features: Located in the Ditto Heights subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($80/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.7% in Wichita Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#437 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools D.
• Wichita Falls ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #585 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 231 units permitted in Wichita County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wichita County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,887 (7.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.16%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-29,469
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-24,844
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76302

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,709 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$297 /mo · $3,560/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,700

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $111	-5% $59	+0% $7	+5% $-46	+10% $-98
Rent	-10% $-128	-5% $-61	+0% $7	+5% $74	+10% $142
Rate	-1.0pp $100	-0.5pp $54	base $7	+0.5pp $-41	+1.0pp $-90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1514 Christine Rd Wichita Falls, TX	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,600	$1.25	46d	1	0.30mi
4739 Augusta Ln Wichita Falls, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,600	$1.00	45d	1	1.19mi
4000 Weeks Park Ln Wichita Falls, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	870	$1,425	$1.64	45d	12	1.24mi
1556 Singleton Ave Wichita Falls, TX	3.0	2.0	1830	$1,950	$1.07	45d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $184,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   listed $184,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,560 · $297/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,560 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,506
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$3,560
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,641
• − Management: −$1,641
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$2,995
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$719
• After-tax cash flow: $799/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wichita Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845780
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,604
• Composite: 27.06/100
• National rank: #7051
• State rank: #585 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wichita Falls

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #437
• US rank: #8940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wichita Falls, TX
• County: Wichita County · 95,694 people
• City population: 95,694
• Metro: Wichita Falls, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,932
• Household income: $59,590
• Rent vs Own: 40.3% rent · 59.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 478.0

Population outlook (Wichita County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 129,638 people
• By 2030: 128,366 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 124,466 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 120,499 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 113,884 · -12.2%
• By 2100: 101,818 · -21.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wichita

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.0) · D 27.5% · R 71.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.9pp · 2024: -44.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.0 2020: R+41.1 2016: R+49.7 2012: R+47.1 2008: R+38.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.67%
• Current HPI: 191.4059
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Wichita Falls, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+94.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $184,900 WFAOR
• 2016-07-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-07-12 Sold (MLS) — WFAOR
• 2016-03-04 Listed $94,900 WFAOR
• 2010-06-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,560 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.