3040 Ascension St · Baltimore, MD 21225

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 756 sqft · Townhouse public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1944 1,742 sqft lot Est $100k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 1944
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas for heating
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership; Finished above-grade area approximately 756 (source: assessor)
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; Year built information from assessor
• Exterior features: Above grade and below grade structures noted; Not on tidal water; Total below-grade area approximately 378 (source: assessor)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven/range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water baseboard heating; Window air conditioning units (electric)
• Interior features: Tub with shower; Attic; Level entry to main floor
• Laundry & utility: 60+ gallon hot water tank

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $882 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Cap rate 20.4% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.41%
• DSCR: 3.24
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $99,792
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3040 Ascension St	0.00mi	2/1.0	756 (0%)	1mo	$75,000	$99	100
3051 Ascension St	0.04mi	2/1.0	756 (0%)	6mo	$100,000	$132	93
443 Roundview Rd	0.10mi	2/1.0	756 (0%)	14mo	$90,000	$119	84
403 Seagull Ave	0.09mi	2/1.5	756 (0%)	14mo	$170,000	$225	82
462 Roundview Rd	0.08mi	2/1.0	756 (0%)	17mo	$71,000	$94	82
504 Bridgeview Rd	0.14mi	2/1.0	756 (0%)	18mo	$100,000	$132	79
2715 Bookert Dr	0.45mi	2/1.0	756 (0%)	3mo	$125,000	$165	77
2737 Bookert Dr	0.44mi	2/1.0	756 (0%)	4mo	$90,000	$119	76
2820 Bookert Dr	0.47mi	2/1.0	756 (0%)	6mo	$85,000	$112	73
2856 Bookert Dr	0.49mi	2/1.0	756 (0%)	12mo	$105,000	$139	67
2805 Bookert Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0	756 (0%)	12mo	$164,900	$218	66
2712 Woodview Rd	0.41mi	3/1.0 (+1)	774 (+2%)	17mo	$150,000	$194	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $45,974
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.74×
• Total profit: $120,513
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21225

• Home prices YoY: -31.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $912/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $882

Break-even live

Break-even rent $634

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
511 Seagull Ave Brooklyn, MD	2.0	1.0	756	$1,550	$2.05	23d	1	0.09mi
2868 Potee St Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	720	$1,392	$1.93	2d	22	0.28mi
2454 Terra Firma Rd Brooklyn, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,650	$1.61	14d	1	0.38mi
2745 Round Rd Brooklyn, MD	2.0	2.0	756	$1,800	$2.38	43d	1	0.49mi
2500 Insulator Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–2.0	988	$3,816	$3.86	2d	152	0.94mi
217 W Edgevale Rd Brooklyn, MD	3.0	1.5	992	$1,800	$1.81	23d	1	0.96mi
3513 Horton Ave Brooklyn, MD	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,600	$1.57	17d	1	1.01mi
3010 Alabama Ave Halethorpe, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$2,200	$2.44	17d	1	1.04mi
205 Arundel Rd W Brooklyn, MD	1.0	1.0	608	$1,200	$1.97	43d	1	1.11mi
520 Baltic Ave Unit B Baltimore, MD	1.0	1.0	800	$1,050	$1.31	43d	1	1.14mi
2450 Rye St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	926	$3,789	$4.09	1d	31	1.20mi
3528 6th St Brooklyn, MD	2.0	2.5	1060	$1,500	$1.42	17d	1	1.21mi
250 Mission Blvd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	790	$3,406	$4.31	1d	21	1.22mi
507 Washburn Ave Brooklyn, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$2,500	$2.44	20d	1	1.29mi
507 Washburn Ave Brooklyn, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$2,500	$2.44	4d	1	1.29mi
507 Washburn Ave Brooklyn, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$2,500	$2.44	23d	1	1.29mi
4207 3rd St Unit 3 Brooklyn, MD	2.0	1.0	850	$1,595	$1.88	4d	1	1.33mi
1900 S Hanover St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–2.0	875	$3,119	$3.56	1d	66	1.35mi
103 E Wells St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	1008	$2,415	$2.39	2d	11	1.40mi
4400 4th St Unit BASEMENT Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	925	$1,350	$1.46	43d	1	1.43mi
111 W Heath St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.5	1263	$2,850	$2.26	3d	7	1.46mi
3840 8th St Brooklyn, MD	3.0	1.5	1088	$1,606	$1.48	4d	1	1.47mi
1705 Olive St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	648	$2,500	$3.86	20d	1	1.48mi
2200 W Patapsco Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	890	$1,569	$1.76	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-14
   listed $75,000 Active
3. 2026-05-13
   historical $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $912 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $912 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,004
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$912
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $9,974
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,394
• After-tax cash flow: $8,193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Anne Arundel County · 535,653 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 34,062
• Household income: $54,020
• Rent vs Own: 50.4% rent · 49.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1440.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 8% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.44%
• Current HPI: 254.5089
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.08%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-13 Coming Soon $75,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $912 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.