863 Fortenberry Rd · Rayville, LA 71269

$199,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,403 sqft · SingleFamily · 113 Days on market

1.50 ac lot $142/sqft · at area comps Est $199k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home sits on approximately 1.5 acres, offering space and flexibility both inside and out. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, and the layout provides room for family, guests, or a home office setup. Conveniently located less than one mile from the new data center construction site, this property offers both comfort and a prime location with growing nearby development. Contact your agent today to schedule a private showing!!!

Key facts

• Prime location
• 1.5 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIME LOCATION
• GROWING NEARBY DEVELOPMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $542 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $181k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#158 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Richland Parish (rural): math 12% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #73 of 98 in LA (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Richland Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richland County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.67%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $199,055
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -0.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,197
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $46,038
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71269

• Home prices YoY: -26.4%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $741/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $542

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,504

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $199,000 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $205,000 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $205,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $205,000 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $205,000 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $205,000 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 94 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $205,000 Active 93 DOM
17. 2026-04-21
    price $205,000 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home sits on approximately 1.5 acres, offering space and flexibility both inside and out. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, and the layout provides room for family, guests, or a home office setup. Conveniently located less than one mile from the new data center construction site, this property offers both comfort and a prime location with growing nearby development. Contact your agent today to schedule a private showing!!!

18. 2026-02-25
    listed $220,000 Active 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    This 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home sits on approximately 1.5 acres, offering space and flexibility both inside and out. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, and the layout provides room for family, guests, or a home office setup. Conveniently located less than one mile from the new data center construction site, this property offers both comfort and a prime location with growing nearby development. Contact your agent today to schedule a private showing!!!

19. 2020-12-17
    soldstatus 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    Adorable and affordable!! This charmer has recently been remodeled with special attention to detail. Property includes 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms, new stainless steel appliances, new HVAC and a new roof. Home sits on 1.5 acres north of Bee Bayou. Contact your agent to set up a showing!!!

20. 2020-09-18
    listed $115,000 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    Adorable and affordable!! This charmer has recently been remodeled with special attention to detail. Property includes 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms, new stainless steel appliances, new HVAC and a new roof. Home sits on 1.5 acres north of Bee Bayou. Contact your agent to set up a showing!!!

21. 2020-05-15
    soldstatus $200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $741 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,094 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: +$353/yr (+$29/mo · 47.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$741
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,103
• − Management: −$2,103
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $3,406
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$817
• After-tax cash flow: $5,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richland Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201350
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $36,097
• Composite: 14.06/100
• National rank: #9464
• State rank: #73 of 98 in LA

Livability — Rayville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #158
• US rank: #13606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,475

Population outlook (Richland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,283 people
• By 2030: 19,990 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 19,240 · -5.1%
• By 2050: 18,497 · -8.8%
• By 2075: 16,626 · -18.0%
• By 2100: 14,204 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 36% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.4) · D 29.7% · R 69.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: -26.6pp · 2024: -39.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.4 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+32.6 2012: R+28.2 2008: R+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.82%
• Current HPI: 158.2193
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+2.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $205,000 NELABOR
• 2026-02-25 Listed $220,000 NELABOR
• 2020-12-17 Sold (MLS) — NELABOR
• 2020-09-18 Listed $115,000 NELABOR
• 2020-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $741 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.