13510 202nd St E · Graham, WA 98338

$74,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 938 sqft · Manufactured · 104 Days on market

Built 1985 Good condition $80/sqft · 74% below area ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully updated and move-in-ready 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home nestled in a peaceful, well-maintained community. Rarely available, this property features its own generously sized lot with a private, fully fenced yard—offering a level of outdoor space and privacy that's hard to find in park living. Step inside and discover a stunning new kitchen designed to impress, featuring elegant quartz countertops, a full tile backsplash, stainless steel appliances, and abundant cabinetry. Fresh flooring throughout adds a modern touch, while the remodeled bathroom showcases a stylish tile walk-in shower for everyday comfort and convenience. Whether you're a first-ti

Key facts

• Quartz counters
• New kitchen
• Fully fenced

Tags

• PRIVATE YARD
• FULLY FENCED
• GENEROUSLY SIZED LOT
• NEW KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERS
• FULL TILE BACKSPLASH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.8% vs local median 3.6% in Graham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#373 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Orting School District (suburban): math 40% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #142 of 291 in WA (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 232 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $68,159 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 73.35%
• DSCR: 4.26
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,500
• List price: $74,900
• Delta: -74.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20517 135th Ave E Spc 6	0.21mi	2/2.0	924 (-2%)	14mo	$70,000	$76	76
13605 200th Street Ct E #77	0.13mi	2/1.0	925 (-1%)	15mo	$48,500	$52	75
21215 Orting Kapowsin Hwy E	0.64mi	2/1.0	912 (-3%)	2mo	$425,000	$466	60
20204 135th Ave E #45	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,026 (+9%)	24mo	$115,000	$112	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 73.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $70,283
• Equity at exit: $11,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 77.4%
• Equity multiple: 9.08×
• Total profit: $169,517
• Equity at exit: $6,476

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98338

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,278 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,124/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $1,282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $655

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14025 198th St E Graham, WA	3.0	2.0	1047	$2,795	$2.67	1d	1	0.45mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,900 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 693-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $74,900 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    price $79,900
17. 2026-03-06
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,336
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,124
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,187
• − Management: −$2,187
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $15,089
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,621
• After-tax cash flow: $11,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home is move-in ready and offers a rare private, fully fenced yard on its own generously sized lot.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value
• Both replace blinds — modernizes look and improves energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both replace blinds — modernizes look and improves energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orting School District
• NCES district ID: 5306450
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $72,768
• Composite: 45.37/100
• National rank: #5719
• State rank: #142 of 291 in WA

Livability — Graham

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #373
• US rank: #14219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Graham, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• City population: 32,687
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 32,687
• Household income: $114,819
• Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 236.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 3% Black 3% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -501.28%
• Current HPI: 304.4241
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.32%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-6.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $79,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Listed $85,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid