1600 E Vista Way Space 37 · Vista, CA 92084

$175,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 52 Days on market

Built 2012 17 ac lot $182/sqft · 6% above area Est $165k · 6% over $453/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Vista Cascade, a highly desirable 55+ community with no space rent. Ownership includes a valuable community equity share, already incorporated into the purchase price. This home offers great potential and is ready for a full interior refresh—an excellent opportunity to customize to your taste. The layout features one bedroom with a spacious ensuite bath, complete with a separate shower and soaking tub, plus a large den or office that can serve as additional living space. Enjoy a well-sized kitchen with a separate dining area, a spacious living room, and a second full bathroom. The generous laundry room provides ample storage, and the property includes three exterior sheds for added convenience. A covered patio offers plenty of space for outdoor dining and entertaining. Residents of Vista Cascade enjoy a wide range of amenities, including a heated pool and spa, a clubhouse with a full kitchen, card room, billiard room, library, fitness equipment, and an active calendar of social events. The HOA fee covers satellite TV, water, trash, common area maintenance, insurance, and administrative costs. Additionally, the $40,000 equity share in Cascadians Inc. is included in the purchase price.

Key facts

• Well-sized kitchen
• Large den
• Soaking tub

Tags

• SPACIOUS ENSUITE BATH
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• SOAKING TUB
• LARGE DEN
• WELL-SIZED KITCHEN
• SEPARATE DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $506 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 2.4% in Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#584 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Vista Unified (suburban): math 32% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #175 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 131 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.39%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,000
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: 6.06%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1600 E Vista Way #64	0.00mi	2/2.0	900 (-6%)	23mo	$265,000	$294	70
1600 E Vista Way Spc 51	0.00mi	2/1.0	840 (-12%)	7mo	$165,000	$196	70
1506 Oak Dr #57	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+8%)	19mo	$250,000	$240	53
1010 E Bobier Dr #95	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+8%)	22mo	$95,000	$91	52
1506 Oak Dr #7	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+8%)	22mo	$165,000	$159	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $493
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $28,473
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92084

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,586 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,118/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$453
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $506

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,945

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
950 Arcadia Ave Vista, CA	2.0	1.0	825	$2,470	$2.99	3d	3	0.08mi
1164 Madera Ln Vista, CA	2.0	1.5	974	$2,850	$2.93	44d	1	0.16mi
911 Taylor St Vista, CA	1.0	1.0	720	$2,232	$3.10	2d	3	0.17mi
1194 Madera Ln Vista, CA	2.0	1.5	1044	$2,850	$2.73	44d	1	0.19mi
1370 Calle Jules Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$2,500	$2.67	17d	3	0.40mi
1370 Calle Jules Unit 206 Vista, CA	1.0	1.0	810	$2,000	$2.47	44d	1	0.41mi
1370 Calle Jules Apt 202 Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	1080	$2,600	$2.41	44d	1	0.41mi
1370 Calle Jules Unit 215 Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	1060	$2,500	$2.36	44d	1	0.41mi
1350 Calle Jules Vista, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$2,295	$2.70	44d	1	0.46mi
1575 Oak Dr Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$2,599	$3.71	2d	7	0.46mi
1440 Oak Dr Unit H4 Vista, CA	2.0	1.0	757	$2,595	$3.43	44d	1	0.48mi
760 E Bobier Dr Vista, CA	1.0	1.0	656	$1,950	$2.97	5d	4	0.54mi
1234 Calle Jules Apt 2 Vista, CA	3.0	1.0	900	$2,500	$2.78	44d	1	0.61mi
337 Apollo Dr Unit Labs Vista, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$2,700	$3.38	44d	1	0.87mi
1255 Rhea Pl Unit A Vista, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,350	$3.36	2d	1	0.89mi
962 Osborne St Vista, CA	2.0	1.0	723	$2,650	$3.67	20d	1	0.96mi
1130 Meadow Lake Dr Unit 06 Vista, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,695	$2.69	44d	1	0.97mi
1060 Meadow Lake Dr Vista, CA	2.0	1.0	963	$2,495	$2.59	44d	1	0.97mi
1025 Meadow Lake Dr Apt 20 Vista, CA	1.0	1.0	960	$2,195	$2.29	11d	1	0.99mi
1025 Meadow Lake Dr Apt 12A Vista, CA	1.0	1.0	960	$2,195	$2.29	44d	1	0.99mi
510 Townsite Dr Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	775	$2,195	$2.83	2d	3	1.02mi
1559 N Santa Fe Ave Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	827	$3,195	$3.86	24d	10	1.02mi
1559 N Santa Fe Ave Vista, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	699	$3,145	$4.50	19d	4	1.02mi
123 Taylor St Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	947	$2,700	$2.85	5d	2	1.08mi
1060 Vale Terrace Dr Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	866	$2,425	$2.80	5d	1	1.08mi
156 Pond Pl Vista, CA	1.0	1.0	820	$2,350	$2.87	44d	1	1.12mi
1610 N Santa Fe Ave Vista, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,750	$2.69	24d	1	1.12mi
281 Weston Cir Apt 4 Vista, CA	1.0	1.0	710	$2,195	$3.09	24d	1	1.22mi
311 Weston Cir Vista, CA	2.0	1.5–2.0	890	$2,645	$2.97	24d	5	1.22mi
740 Paseo Buena Vis Vista, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$3,342	$3.22	2d	7	1.22mi
271 Weston Cir Apt 21 Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	890	$2,695	$3.03	24d	1	1.23mi
318 Hillside Ct Vista, CA	2.0	1.5	925	$2,595	$2.81	3d	1	1.31mi
240 Nevada Ave Vista, CA	2.0	1.0	835	$2,350	$2.81	5d	2	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $453 · $5,436/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashpool

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $175,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    status Active 1219-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1219 chars)

    Welcome to Vista Cascade, a highly desirable 55+ community with no space rent. Ownership includes a valuable community equity share, already incorporated into the purchase price. This home offers great potential and is ready for a full interior refresh—an excellent opportunity to customize to your taste. The layout features one bedroom with a spacious ensuite bath, complete with a separate shower and soaking tub, plus a large den or office that can serve as additional living space. Enjoy a well-sized kitchen with a separate dining area, a spacious living room, and a second full bathroom. The generous laundry room provides ample storage, and the property includes three exterior sheds for added convenience. A covered patio offers plenty of space for outdoor dining and entertaining. Residents of Vista Cascade enjoy a wide range of amenities, including a heated pool and spa, a clubhouse with a full kitchen, card room, billiard room, library, fitness equipment, and an active calendar of social events. The HOA fee covers satellite TV, water, trash, common area maintenance, insurance, and administrative costs. Additionally, the $40,000 equity share in Cascadians Inc. is included in the purchase price.

15. 2026-05-02
    status Pending Sale 1219-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1219 chars)

    Welcome to Vista Cascade, a highly desirable 55+ community with no space rent. Ownership includes a valuable community equity share, already incorporated into the purchase price. This home offers great potential and is ready for a full interior refresh—an excellent opportunity to customize to your taste. The layout features one bedroom with a spacious ensuite bath, complete with a separate shower and soaking tub, plus a large den or office that can serve as additional living space. Enjoy a well-sized kitchen with a separate dining area, a spacious living room, and a second full bathroom. The generous laundry room provides ample storage, and the property includes three exterior sheds for added convenience. A covered patio offers plenty of space for outdoor dining and entertaining. Residents of Vista Cascade enjoy a wide range of amenities, including a heated pool and spa, a clubhouse with a full kitchen, card room, billiard room, library, fitness equipment, and an active calendar of social events. The HOA fee covers satellite TV, water, trash, common area maintenance, insurance, and administrative costs. Additionally, the $40,000 equity share in Cascadians Inc. is included in the purchase price.

16. 2026-04-21
    listed $190,000 Active 1219-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1219 chars)

    Welcome to Vista Cascade, a highly desirable 55+ community with no space rent. Ownership includes a valuable community equity share, already incorporated into the purchase price. This home offers great potential and is ready for a full interior refresh—an excellent opportunity to customize to your taste. The layout features one bedroom with a spacious ensuite bath, complete with a separate shower and soaking tub, plus a large den or office that can serve as additional living space. Enjoy a well-sized kitchen with a separate dining area, a spacious living room, and a second full bathroom. The generous laundry room provides ample storage, and the property includes three exterior sheds for added convenience. A covered patio offers plenty of space for outdoor dining and entertaining. Residents of Vista Cascade enjoy a wide range of amenities, including a heated pool and spa, a clubhouse with a full kitchen, card room, billiard room, library, fitness equipment, and an active calendar of social events. The HOA fee covers satellite TV, water, trash, common area maintenance, insurance, and administrative costs. Additionally, the $40,000 equity share in Cascadians Inc. is included in the purchase price.

17. 2014-04-30
    historical
18. 2014-04-30
    historical
19. 2014-03-13
    price $99,900
20. 2013-10-31
    listed $114,900 Active
21. 2013-10-31
    listed $99,900
22. 2011-07-27
    historical
23. 2011-06-23
    price $12,000
24. 2011-05-20
    price $15,750
25. 2011-03-23
    price $17,995
26. 2011-03-03
    listed $19,995 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,118 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,330 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$212/yr (+$18/mo · 19.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,030
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,118
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,482
• − Management: −$2,482
• − HOA: −$5,436
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $3,743
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$898
• After-tax cash flow: $5,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vista Unified
• NCES district ID: 0641190
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $60,067
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3850
• State rank: #175 of 517 in CA

Livability — Vista

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #584
• US rank: #18990

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vista, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 117,104
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 49,727
• Household income: $98,577
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1904.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 38% Two or more races 26% Asian 4% Black 2% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 34% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -649.36%
• Current HPI: 366.7772
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+850.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-05-02 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $190,000 CRMLS
• 2014-04-30 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2014-04-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2014-03-13 Price Changed $99,900 SDMLS
• 2013-10-31 Listed $114,900 SDMLS
• 2013-10-31 Listed $99,900 CRMLS
• 2011-07-27 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2011-06-23 Price Changed $12,000 SDMLS
• 2011-05-20 Price Changed $15,750 SDMLS
• 2011-03-23 Price Changed $17,995 SDMLS
• 2011-03-03 Listed $19,995 SDMLS

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,118 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.